BC SOCIETY
Saved by @jay_millerjay

@AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd I'll bite. Let's try to keep it factual. There's a reasonable basis to some aspects of this question, that it might be possible to agree on. Then there are other, more variable, elements which depend on external factors such as transport and energy policy. /1

 @danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd First up, we know reasonably well how much energy it takes to propel a high-speed train along the HS2 route. We can translate that into effective CO2 generated by making some assumptions about how green the electricity grid is. /2
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Secondly, we have a reasonable grasp of how much CO2 is going to be generated by building HS2 - there are standard methods of working this out, based on the amount of steel, concrete, earthmoving, machine-fuelling etc required. /3
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Thirdly, we can estimate how much CO2 is generated by cutting down trees, and how much is captured by planting new trees. We can also estimate how much CO2 is needed to keep the railway running and generated by maintaining the track /4
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd We know how much CO2 is saved by moving goods by freight train on the lines freed up by moving the express trains on to HS2, rather than by truck. /5
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd And we also know how much CO2 is generated by each car, train and plane trip that HS2 could replace. (A flavour of it is shown in the BEIS numbers here) /6
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Now it starts to get a bit more complicated. The uncertainty comes in how many people are going to be using HS2 rather than those other methods. There are two major competing views - the one modelled by HS2 Ltd using the DfT computer model … /7
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd … and a more pragmatic one based on what we observe from other high speed rail schemes elsewhere. And both those can be further influenced by broader policies on such things as road charging, fuel duty, frequent flyer levies etc. /8
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd First up, the DfT version - which leads to the anti HS2 campaigns’ “not neutral for 120 years” claims. It’s worth looking into the assumptions behind this - the best analysis was done by David Peilow: https://t.co/rBoht19Xnd. They are very unfavourable to HS2. /9
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd They assume that there’ll be little growth in rail demand once HS2 is opened, yet road and air demand will grow; that car travel will continue to get cheaper while rail travel gets more expensive, and that many people will get to the station by car not public transport. /10
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd These result in a very small modelled shift from car to HS2 (4% of HS2 trips), and a tiny one from air (1%). Even so, that 1% makes the major contribution to HS2’s CO2 savings, as this analysis by @greens4hs2 shows: https://t.co/oHZGtvnbfP. /11
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd If you look at what actually happens with real high speed rail schemes, you find that they capture much more of the air traffic that they compete with. This is true for London-Paris via Eurostar, for Madrid-Barcelona, for Taipei-Kaohsiung and more. /12
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Increasing that shift from air makes a huge difference. Plugging in the numbers we expect, as David Peilow does, brings HS2’s CO2 payback period down under 30 years by his figures. /13
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd And there’s more. We haven’t yet factored in any external policies to actually encourage people to use the train rather than drive or fly. That’s the biggest area of uncertainty. The modelling expressly excludes that sort of policy intervention. /14
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd If you’re of a Green bent or interested in getting to zero CO2, you’re going to be in favour of shifting the balance from high-CO2 to low-CO2 modes. So you’ll favour rail fare subsidies, air capacity limits, frequent flyer levies. /15
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Every one of those interventions will move more people to take the train rather than fly or drive. Every one of those shifted journeys makes HS2 more CO2-effective and brings that payback date even closer. /16
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd And there’s even more! Even more unknown than the transport policies is what’s going to happen to the classic rail network once the fast express trains have been taken off it, replaced by HS2 trains. That frees up a lot of space for new trains. /17
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Off HS2’s radar and not considered in its modelling is what CO2 benefits can be gained by getting people out of cars and on to new train services using that freed-up space. These are substantial - but we don’t know how big they’ll be. /18
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd So - we know that the “120 years” figure is really very much an unrealistic worst case, the real number is much earlier, and that actively campaigning for sensible CO2-reduction policy can have a massive impact even on that. It doesn't make any sense just to quote a single date.

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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/OK, data mystery time.

This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE

That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.

Let's check this number.

2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".

The report is available here:

3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.

The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.


4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.

Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A

It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.

That estimate is from 2012.

5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.

I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
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David Neiwert
David Neiwert
@DavidNeiwert
1) “Eliminationism” is a term you need not just to become familiar with, especially in today’s American rush toward authoritarianism. This will be a long, illustrated thread explaining what it means, how it works, and why Donald Trump is now our Eliminationist in Chief.


Warning: Some images contain violence and are disturbing.

Also warning: This thread is ridiculously long. 75 tweets is insane. I apologize. But this stuff is important. I hope you find it compelling anyway. If not, I understand.

2) So, what exactly do we mean by “eliminationism”? Here’s the academic definition:


3) It was largely coined by Holocaust scholar Daniel Jonah Goldhagen in his 1996 book Hitler’s Willing Executioners, about the role ordinary Germans played in the Holocaust, which he described as fueled by “eliminationist antisemitism.”


4) The book describes how in reality the largest numbers of Jews and other victims killed by Nazi directive were rounded up and gunned down or immolated en masse and buried in mass graves by ordinary Germans and non-Jewish residents of German-occupied territories.
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/People I know on the Right tend to be obsessed with the idea of "crimethink", taboos, and the (supposedly) oppressive, omnipresent enforcement of liberal cultural norms.

Why?

My new theory: A lot of it is guilt.

2/It's true that in some circles - the media, universities, many big corporations - liberal norms *are* enforced to some degree, and the enforcement has probably gotten stronger in recent years.

But I don't think this explains all of the Right's obsession.

3/The stereotype is that people on the Right tend to be more threat-sensitive. That would help explain the perception that liberal norm-enforcers are lurking everywhere, ready to pounce and anathematize anyone who makes a misstep.

But I don't think that's all of it either.

4/And of course, it's always fun - whether you're on the Right or the Left, or playing a video game, or whatever - to style yourself as the brave iconoclastic rebel fighting against the oppressive forces of blah blah blah.

But I don't think this is all of it, either.

5/The reason I think it's more than these things is that even *in private*, people on the Right express their "crimethink" ideas very gingerly and hesitantly.

I get the sense that they're not just afraid of external censure, but have also internalized liberal norms.
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Jo Luehmann
Jo Luehmann
@JoLuehmann
We live in a society that misunderstands boundaries and consent. Most people think the former is about just saying no, and the latter is about sex. And while that’s a part of it, they are about agency, autonomy, respect and interpersonal relationships.

1/

Unsolicited advice without consent is crossing a person’s boundaries. Even if the advice is good advice, even if the person giving the advice is a pastor or a parent, even if the advice is important. Most people aren’t talking about their life so that we may solve it.

2/

It is an honor to be trusted with someone’s life story*, with their thoughts and their challenges, with their struggles and their musings. But it is not an open invitation to try and solve their problems, control their behavior, tell them what to do.

3/

For a group of people that speak often of free will and claim to follow Jesus, Christians are some of the worst at boundaries and consent in general, and advice giving in particular. Think about how many sermons are not sharing spiritual truths, but just giving advice.

4/

Think about how much pastoral counseling is just advice giving. Think about the many books that tell you how to parent, how to be a good wife, how to be a good Christian, how to... and how much of it is general advice as though our lives were interchangeable?

5/
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@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
It's been a whole day since we tweeted Part 2 of this chapter, so let us remind you: #AdamSmith just said that the colonies got nothing that helped them succeed from the mother country. (IV.vii.c) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

So these two opening sentences are pretty heckin’ sarcastic:
Now we've seen the great advantages the colonies got (they got nothing!) (IV.vii.c.1)
So what have been the great advantages to Europe! (IV.vii.c.2)

Seems like there’s a...tone there. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets


Europeans buy goods from America, and Americans buy European goods as well. Even countries that don’t trade directly with America have benefited. (IV.vii.c.3–8) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

The mother countries restrict colonial trade (esp the exclusive right to buy from or sell to their colonies). That's a dead weight on the increase of the wealth of nations. Everything is more expensive, everyone enjoys less of it. (IV.vii.c.9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Maybe European countries get added security? In ancient times, empires expected military support and revenue from their colonies, and they got it.
18thC colonies? Not so much. (IV.vii.c.11–13) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
SOCIETY

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So here is a secret: Not everything I write goes anywhere. I have at least 4 books completely written and edited that never went on submission. I have books that stalled out at 20k. I have docs on my computer with opening paragraphs I don't remember writing. But! 1/

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Mitesh Patel
Mitesh Patel
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How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
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Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"


The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI CHAMPAKADHAMA SWAMY, BANNERGHATTA HILL, BENGALURU (KAR)
#bharatmandir

The shrine is dedicated to Sri Vishnu along with Devi Lakshmi and Bhoodevi.
It is built in an area full of Champaka trees.
As champaka flowers are offered to Sri Vishnu here, it is called Champakadhama.


It is believed that King Janmejaya had sarpa-dosha. To get rid of it, he took bath in the nearby pond. He emerged with a golden body and sarpa-dosha was also removed. The pond is called Swarnamukhi and believed to have curative powers.
Sri Vishnu murti was consecrated by him.


It is also believed that this forest area was the Dandakaranya where Sri Ram stayed in exile.
Some believe that the original shrine was built by Pandavas.
The pushkarni/pond is emptied once a year so that the rock at the bottom (which has image of Anjaneya) may be worshipped.
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sriram
sriram
@SriramKannan77
Sri Varaha Charama Shlokam

sthithE manasi susvasthE sarIrE sathi yO nara:
dhAthusAmyE sthithE smarthA visvarUpam cha maamajam (1)

tathastham mriyamANam thu kAshtA paashaNa sannibham
aham smarAmi madh bhaktham nayAmi paramAm gathim (2)


Meaning:

Oh Bhumi Devi! The entire universe is my body (sarIram).
I do not have births or deaths .

When my bhakthAs with mahA visvAsam (utmost faith) surrender to me, while they are still in a state of tranquil mind and healthy body and reflect about Me as as SarvAdharan (root cause
of all),
NiyanthA (One who commands from within),
sarva sEshi (the ultimate),

aasrayaNeeyan (One who is fit to be worshipped),
Sarva VyApthan (all-pervasive) and
Nithya sannihithan (One who is always near),
THEN
I think of them at their last moments, when they are totally unconscious like a log or a stone
and lead them by archirAdhi

maargam to My parama padham and bless them to have nithya kaimkarya bhAgyam to Me there.
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