BC SOCIETY
Saved by @jay_millerjay

@AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd I'll bite. Let's try to keep it factual. There's a reasonable basis to some aspects of this question, that it might be possible to agree on. Then there are other, more variable, elements which depend on external factors such as transport and energy policy. /1

 @danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd First up, we know reasonably well how much energy it takes to propel a high-speed train along the HS2 route. We can translate that into effective CO2 generated by making some assumptions about how green the electricity grid is. /2
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Secondly, we have a reasonable grasp of how much CO2 is going to be generated by building HS2 - there are standard methods of working this out, based on the amount of steel, concrete, earthmoving, machine-fuelling etc required. /3
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Thirdly, we can estimate how much CO2 is generated by cutting down trees, and how much is captured by planting new trees. We can also estimate how much CO2 is needed to keep the railway running and generated by maintaining the track /4
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd We know how much CO2 is saved by moving goods by freight train on the lines freed up by moving the express trains on to HS2, rather than by truck. /5
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd And we also know how much CO2 is generated by each car, train and plane trip that HS2 could replace. (A flavour of it is shown in the BEIS numbers here) /6
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Now it starts to get a bit more complicated. The uncertainty comes in how many people are going to be using HS2 rather than those other methods. There are two major competing views - the one modelled by HS2 Ltd using the DfT computer model … /7
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd … and a more pragmatic one based on what we observe from other high speed rail schemes elsewhere. And both those can be further influenced by broader policies on such things as road charging, fuel duty, frequent flyer levies etc. /8
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd First up, the DfT version - which leads to the anti HS2 campaigns’ “not neutral for 120 years” claims. It’s worth looking into the assumptions behind this - the best analysis was done by David Peilow: https://t.co/rBoht19Xnd. They are very unfavourable to HS2. /9
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd They assume that there’ll be little growth in rail demand once HS2 is opened, yet road and air demand will grow; that car travel will continue to get cheaper while rail travel gets more expensive, and that many people will get to the station by car not public transport. /10
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd These result in a very small modelled shift from car to HS2 (4% of HS2 trips), and a tiny one from air (1%). Even so, that 1% makes the major contribution to HS2’s CO2 savings, as this analysis by @greens4hs2 shows: https://t.co/oHZGtvnbfP. /11
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd If you look at what actually happens with real high speed rail schemes, you find that they capture much more of the air traffic that they compete with. This is true for London-Paris via Eurostar, for Madrid-Barcelona, for Taipei-Kaohsiung and more. /12
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Increasing that shift from air makes a huge difference. Plugging in the numbers we expect, as David Peilow does, brings HS2’s CO2 payback period down under 30 years by his figures. /13
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd And there’s more. We haven’t yet factored in any external policies to actually encourage people to use the train rather than drive or fly. That’s the biggest area of uncertainty. The modelling expressly excludes that sort of policy intervention. /14
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd If you’re of a Green bent or interested in getting to zero CO2, you’re going to be in favour of shifting the balance from high-CO2 to low-CO2 modes. So you’ll favour rail fare subsidies, air capacity limits, frequent flyer levies. /15
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Every one of those interventions will move more people to take the train rather than fly or drive. Every one of those shifted journeys makes HS2 more CO2-effective and brings that payback date even closer. /16
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd And there’s even more! Even more unknown than the transport policies is what’s going to happen to the classic rail network once the fast express trains have been taken off it, replaced by HS2 trains. That frees up a lot of space for new trains. /17
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Off HS2’s radar and not considered in its modelling is what CO2 benefits can be gained by getting people out of cars and on to new train services using that freed-up space. These are substantial - but we don’t know how big they’ll be. /18
@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd So - we know that the “120 years” figure is really very much an unrealistic worst case, the real number is much earlier, and that actively campaigning for sensible CO2-reduction policy can have a massive impact even on that. It doesn't make any sense just to quote a single date.

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I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years.

There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia).

Summarizing:

1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.

1/-

2.Mitigation (slowing transmission) versus elimination (stopping transmission)

3.Gradually responding to increasing levels of infection by imposing greater restrictions which enables the infection rate to grow (red zone strategy), …

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versus starting with high restrictions to arrest transmission and relaxing restrictions only when the number of new cases is so low that contact tracing or localized short term action can stop community transmission (green zone strategy, including localized "fire fighting").

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4.Trying to keep economic activity and travel as open as possible but perpetuating the economic harm and imposing yoyo restrictions, versus making an initial sacrifice of economic activity and travel in order to benefit from the rapid restoration of normal economic activity.

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5.Focusing attention on few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsightedness or selfishness, versus recognizing the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success, as elimination is a robust strategy.

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A long thread on how an obsessive & violent antisemite & Holocaust denier has been embraced by the international “community of the good.”

Sarah Wilkinson has a history of Holocaust denial & anti-Jewish hatred dating back (in documented examples) to around 2015.


She is a self-proclaimed British activist for “Palestinian rights” but is more accurately a far Left neo-Nazi. Her son shares the same characteristics of violence, racism & Holocaust denial.

I first documented Sarah Wilkinson’s Holocaust denial back in July 2016. I believe I was the 1st person to do so.

Since then she has produced a long trail of written hate and abuse. See here for a good summary.


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Neo-Nazi Sarah Wilkinson is supported and encouraged by thousands of those on the Left who consider themselves “anti-racists”.
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A thank you to Twitter for teaching me a trans man the truth about transgenderism. I’m no longer lost!

A thread for the headships at Twitter:

What transgenderism is and what it is NOT - What I learned as a Twitter 👩‍🎓 graduate thread.

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4.Gender Dysphoria is NOT a mental illness & should never be challenged & medical transition should be administered at, “Mom/Dad I feel like a..” IMMEDIATELY NO QUESTIONS ASKED

5.Children know more than adults & understand consequences without having to go through situations, educational purposes, or have a fully developed brain for hindsight - it’s quite amazing.
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For Black History Month, Vox is publishing a big series on rethinking policy for Black America.

I wrote 3,200 words on eradicating exclusionary zoning.

It's a 3 step formula: Persuade, incentivize, and if all else fails, SUE THE SUBURBS.

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We know that exclusionary zoning is locking millions out of opportunity.

Work by @OppInsights, Richard Rothstein, Ta-Nehisi Coates, @nhannahjones, @RickKahlenberg, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Enrico Moretti and @ProfSchleich details the economic impact of these discriminatory policies.


51 years after the Fair Housing Act, it's never been seriously enforced. It's time to change that.

First things first, Biden has work to do to convince whoever can be convinced that there is a racial, environmental, and economic imperative to undo residential segregation.


Use whatever explanation works!

For sympathetic progressives Biden should link racial and environmental justice to ending exclusionary zoning.

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Technical Analysis Masterclass- Part 2

'Entering the trade'

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In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade.

DON'T ENTER A TRADE WITHOUT DETERMINNG THE FOLLOWING.

Please share.

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2. Stop Loss.

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With his younger brother, writer Larry Lieber, and Jack "the King" Kirby:

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TYPES OF SINS(PAAP) AS PER SKAND PURAN.

There are three types of Adharma- Sthool, Sukshma and Ati Sukshma. The group of Sins in the Sthul section carries you to Narak. These sins are committed through your thoughts, words and deeds.


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Thinking about woman other then your spouse.

A)Resolution to amass wealth from others.

B)Thinking ill about others.

C)Thinking of doing a forbidden or unworthy deed.

2)Second is the sin that you commit through your words :-

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D)Talking ill about others.

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A)Eating food not prescribed to you or forbidden.

B)Violence.

C)Eating fancier food.

D)Acquiring other's wealth.

So these twelve types of sins.

There are six types of sinners or Mahapatak

1)One not bowing his head in front of a temple.

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5)One who do not behave properly.

6)One who is jealous of other bhakts.

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So, I want to talk about how sexual harassment and fair pay are linked at Google (and beyond), because I think that's an angle that isn't being highlighted enough in the coverage of these walk-outs. I'm going to frame it largely around my personal experience there. Thread.

When I was sexually harassed by the director of the area I was working in, I was afraid to report it because I was worried that "getting him in trouble" would result in the subtle retaliation of missed leadership opportunities.

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