The UK is starting talks to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP)

One way of finding out what it is: look at the text.

Here goes.

It doesn’t have a Secretariat so the text is published by each govt. Google “CPTPP text”

1/13

New Zealand is a good place to start. It has the text by chapter, 30 of them: https://t.co/UvtW9wgRky

(Canada has summaries by chapter: https://t.co/PswL4vt3WD)

#CPTPP

2/13
“Wow! 30 chapters. Better start reading”

“Hang on. There’s more.”

https://t.co/UvtW9wgRky

#CPTPP

3/13
“Right. Is that it?”

“Those are only the side agreements involving New Zealand. Here are Australia’s”

https://t.co/1Rav6hI3zZ

#CPTPP

4/13
“Er, how many members does #CPTPP have?”

"Eleven.

“Don’t worry. We’re not going through all the side agreements.

“But these next bits are important. The Annexes. Annex 2-D contains the tariff commitments of each country.”

https://t.co/UvtW9wgRky

#CPTPP

5/13
“And there are side deal in the tariff commitments too?”

“Yes. Some details, then. Here’s Japan’s commitment on tariffs. It’s 1,133 pages! And, for example, there are tariff quotas on beef, some still with an in-quota tariff after 21 years. https://t.co/4MMreO4V4d”

#CPTPP

6/13
“So not always duty-free.”

“Correct, but most is. And Japan has some stuff on price differentials.”

“Meaning?”

“Don’t ask me! Looks like some combination of options used for proof of origin and corresponding tariffs. See for yourself.”

https://t.co/j7HPHLvNDf

#CPTPP

7/13
“Pure poetry”

“More of your ‘poetry’ in the Canada-Japan deal on vehicle tariffs. Looks like an ‘MFN’ provision, so favourable terms for others in #CPTPP on regulations etc have to be matched between the two, plus something on safeguard tariffs.”

https://t.co/x2Tdad11ND

8/13
“Now our favourite subject. Rules of origin, to be ‘made in’ a #CPTPP country and qualify for zero/lower duty. The main text has general rules. The 212-page appendix has variations for specific products https://t.co/8a70BE6pfn. 3 pages for vehicles https://t.co/C9hNdhtzmD”

9/13
“And more rules of origin, this time for textiles products https://t.co/nTjbhIYZ80

“Oh and something called a ‘short supply list’. No I haven’t read it. https://t.co/rvethhamA2”

#CPTPP

10/13
“That’s it?”

“No. You’re forgetting services”

“Everyone forgets services”

“Some details on temporary entry for services professionals, known as ‘mode 4’. And government procurement commitments, like buying vaccines and nuclear reactors”

https://t.co/UvtW9wgRky

#CPTPP

11/13
“And they are followed by lots of exemptions from commitments on services. ‘Non-conforming’.”

https://t.co/UvtW9wgRky

#CPTPP

12/13
“Are we there yet?”

“Yes. Finally some tidying up documents.

“And that, my friend, is what Britain’s negotiation to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (#CPTPP) will involve.”

https://t.co/UvtW9wgRky

13/13

More from Society

So, as the #MegaMillions jackpot reaches a record $1.6B and #Powerball reaches $620M, here's my advice about how to spend the money in a way that will truly set you, your children and their kids up for life.

Ready?

Create a private foundation and give it all away. 1/

Let's stipulate first that lottery winners often have a hard time. Being publicly identified makes you a target for "friends" and "family" who want your money, as well as for non-family grifters and con men. 2/

The stress can be damaging, even deadly, and Uncle Sam takes his huge cut. Plus, having a big pool of disposable income can be irresistible to people not accustomed to managing wealth.
https://t.co/fiHsuJyZwz 3/

Meanwhile, the private foundation is as close as we come to Downton Abbey and the landed aristocracy in this country. It's a largely untaxed pot of money that grows significantly over time, and those who control them tend to entrench their own privileges and those of their kin. 4

Here's how it works for a big lotto winner:

1. Win the prize.
2. Announce that you are donating it to the YOUR NAME HERE Family Foundation.
3. Receive massive plaudits in the press. You will be a folk hero for this decision.
4. Appoint only trusted friends/family to board. 5/
I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.

While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.

Here's how: 🧵

One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.

Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:

https://t.co/tDce0MwO61


Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.

Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):


Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.

If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.

Simple example:

Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant

1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%

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