BC SNLEARNINGS

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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16 5 years, 2 months ago 1046 views

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Views, buy/sell signals, entry systems are over rated.

Execution and trade management skills are under-rated.

A thread

You buy 4 lots of TataConsmr 710 CE at 24, SL 18
( Risk = R = 6 points)

TataCon 710CE goes upto 30. What do you do ?

( this is where the 4 lots minimum comes into play)

1. You sqoff 2 lots. rest 2 you put SL at 24

2. You sqoff 2 lots, you put 1 lot SL at 24, another lot at 18
3. You sqoff 2 lots, sell 2 lots of higher strikes CE , say 730/740 and covert to a bull spread

In all the cases, you have taken some profit off the table ensuring you do not lose money on this trade while keeping yourself open for more profits in case it goes up more.
I have given you a gist of what you learn in various money management / position sizing books.
Use this.

More from Subhadip Nandy

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

IV - A thread

In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)

Implied volatility, a forward-looking and subjective measure, differs
from historical volatility because the latter is calculated from known
past returns of a security. .
https://t.co/iC5wVf7kvj (2/n)

To understand where Implied Volatility stands in terms of the underlying, implied volatility rank is used to understand its implied volatility from a one year high and low IV.
https://t.co/NFPOidRRcH

https://t.co/qNqinEqaKY

(3/n)

Options traders are always looking at the IV and IVR/IVP. For option
buyers, a low IV environment is best to initiate positions as the
subsequent rise in IV actually helps their positions . Even if the IV
remains flat, the position is not hurt by volatility (4/n)

Option sellers on the other hand are looking for high IV scenarios, where
the subsequent fall in IV ( known a vol crush , most often seen after
earnings/events) helps their positions. Here also, if the IV does not
rise, it does not hurt a seller's positions (5/n)

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of

Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input

I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets

This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.

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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

My presentation on Money Management was based on a lot of sources as I mentioned. For traders interested on those sources , here they are

#OptimalF
Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets by Ralph Vince

The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders by Ralph Vince

#SecureF

#FixedRatio

The Trading Game: Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions by Ryan Jones

https://t.co/U0c65EbEog.

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

Options and their price action analysis.
Read 👇👇

A small write up on how the OPTION PRICES BEHAVES AT SUPPORT & RESISTANCE pic.twitter.com/eBlXAZU4Ma
— Bijay (@Bijay_reborn) July 17, 2021

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(Thread)

The narrative set by left historians about one of their favorite poster boys "Gh0ri" is that he went unchallenged upon entering the Indian subcontinent with one king falling after another.(1)

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