Perspective.

It's the weekend!

Grab a cup of coffee, in this thread I will explain

1. How to do Industry Research?
2. How to research a Company from scratch?
3. How to determine Margin of Safety and build an Investment Case?

Lets dive right in.

The most frequent question I get asked is - How should I research an industry or a trend?

A good question indeed and my answer to this is simple.

Read, Read and then Read some more.

The more knowledge you consume, the better you will be able to identify and link trends across industries.

But reading doesn't mean you need to pick a newspaper or start reading random articles over the internet.

Your reading and research needs to be structured.

This is where technology comes in to help and make our lives easier.

Today, algorithms run our world and decide what data you consume.

Be it Instagram posts, TikTok reels or YouTube videos.

So learn to trick these algorithms and use them to your advantage.

It's the weekend!

Grab a cup of coffee, in this thread I will explain

1. What are Valuation Ratios?
2. What ratio should be used when?
3. Why one standard ratio like a PE doesn't work all the time?

Lets dive right in.

Valuation Ratios are a subset of ratios within the broader family of Ratio Analysis.

It is in this segment of Ratio Analysis, that you will find ratios like Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Cash Flow, Price to Sales and many more.

Together these ratios help an investor understand if a company is valued cheap or expensive.

A novice investor tends to use Price to Earnings (PE) for everything - yet it is only one of the many ratios that should be used to judge the current valuation of a company.

It's the weekend!

Grab a cup of coffee, in this thread I will explain

1. What is a Yield Curve?
2. Why is it an important indicator of Recession?
3. Is an Economic Recession around the corner?

Lets dive right in!

Before we understand a Yield Curve, lets get some of the basic terminology out of the way

1. What is a Bond?

A bond is a fixed income financial instrument which represents a loan made by an investor to a borrower

The investor typically receives payment in the form of interest and a lumpsum (principal) on maturity

The interest rate on a bond is known as coupon rate.

There are many types of bonds like

1. Zero Coupon : Pays both interest and principal at maturity
2. Sovereign Bonds : Issued by a Government or a Quasi Government Institution
3. Corporate Bonds : Issued by corporate like banks, established companies etc.

Coupon (Interest Rates) on a bond are decided based on the issuer's credit rating

The higher the credit worthiness of the issuer, the lower the coupon rate

Credit Rating on a Bond is usually assigned by credit rating agencies like Moody's or Standard & Poor's (S&P)

Niti Ayog is one of the best places to look at, if you want to learn more about the upcoming reforms, outlook on India for next decade and some of the most pressing economical issues of our generation.

Here is a recent one on EV charging infra.

https://t.co/BGoCTVnlRS

Momentum Trading Trend Template

EMA-10> EMA-21> EMA-63

RSI- Above 55

High RS rating stocks , with 15% CAGR growth in earnings from last 3 years.

NR7 candlestick simplified via @chartmojo

✅ Narrow Range Pattern
✅ R:R Favourable Pattern
✅ Market Psychology Driven

This is in response to the question by @unseenvalue

If I had to buy 1 stock today, anywhere in the world, no avg. up or down, 5 year holding period (I will make that as 10 year for thesis to play out)

Since I track mainly Indian equities, restricting the choice to this space

Few points to look for
1. Strong macro tailwind rather than headwind, huge growth runway for company/segment. It can't be in a niche space & demand must not be easily substitutable
2. Strong Biz Model, high growth curve (15%+ over the period), strong ROE profile (hurdle rate 20%)

3. Low or no leverage, efficient capital allocation, (read minimal or zero fresh dilution requirements), strong cash flows and correspondingly high dividend payout ratios (consistent dividend history) and finally strong moat and with limited regulatory involvement / no reg issues

4. Promoter quality and intention must be beyond reproach, proven management with skin in the game
5. Capability to manage disruption, and if possible to even profit from it. If you can't be disrupted easily, you will eventually adapt your game to gain scale

6. There must be a possibility of non-linear growth if the scale-up hypothesis gets proven right. It's like an FD with low fixed return plus significant upside optionality. Multiple revenue streams / margin levers / IP that can provide non linearity in growth

A thread of strength in the market.

An analysis which I did during Covid crash with @MashraniVivek on which sectors and stocks were strong, and we did pick pharma, chemical early cycle. Though we do not know where market is heading, doing such exercise always helps to find

strength when market bottoms. Of course, it requires much more reading and conviction building and hence should be taken only as a starting point. Here is how this list has been generated
1. Pick top 500 companies
2. Find list of companies which have fallen < 10% in last 3 months

Totally 61 out of 500 stocks.
This is how the sectors come up.
✍️Auto and Capital Goods stand out
✍️Do not ignore defence for sheer count as there are few companies in sector
✍️Next pocket looks like few beaten down sectors/stocks where may be value is emerging - FMCG, Pharma

List of stocks - Auto tops the list followed by capital goods, bank and financial, pharma and defense. Disc: I am biased towards auto n financials (keeping FII selling risk aside). Also, this is still a watchlist activity and I am not acting on it except being

invested in few auto n banking names. Please do your own due diligence. I am not a registered investment advisor and this is not a recommendation. Follow @ScientificInve6 and our Youtube channel for more such