If u know how ATR, RSI, Bollinger Bands etc. are constructed,
what exactly are they measuring,
how does it disagree with price at times,
how it responds to various trend phases etc
U probably would reckon that indicators works as much as price or volume.

Do u know them well??

if u are looking to scan the stocks which are moving in tight range,
how would u construct a logic for that?

Everyone's suggestions are welcome

Thread on Importance of Mean Reversion

U must have remember the charts of auto sector breakout on last monday,potentially poised to be the next leader in the rally.
But since then it just fell bad and deep
Breaking the breakout bar low

1/7

The seemingly convincing breakout retest structure in abv daily chart takes a cocpletely different picture in u open the chart in weekly TF

shooting start at the resistance line of a triangle and at a major supply zone

2/7

Major stocks such as heromoto, maruti, eichermot and babajauto are already trading below the breakout level it established on monday when sector broke out

3/7

This poses a serious question on the risks associated with breakout.

Popularity behind the breakout is the fact that it doesnt need any skills to spot it, even a 90% blind man can spot it in any chart, because the price just sticks out from the rest by a very big margin

4/7

But think about a completely diffferent method where the price makes a clean move and the risks assicated with it is cubstantially less.

Price available so cheap and at support

5/7

How to identify a potential 2x/3x winner in equity segment with a medium term delivery perspective??

Here is few stocks which made a >5x return since 2 years. All of them shows specific repeated sequence of events.
If u were to ask to form a method out of this
How would u do it?

If u are a pullback trader u get to take an entry very close to the end of a counter trend move which offer a very tight SL.
In case for a trend follower, the candle size near to the trend phase he is aiming at is way too larger and hence offer a much wider SL

Momentum Trading Trend Template

EMA-10> EMA-21> EMA-63

RSI- Above 55

High RS rating stocks , with 15% CAGR growth in earnings from last 3 years.

This is in response to the question by @unseenvalue

If I had to buy 1 stock today, anywhere in the world, no avg. up or down, 5 year holding period (I will make that as 10 year for thesis to play out)

Since I track mainly Indian equities, restricting the choice to this space

Few points to look for
1. Strong macro tailwind rather than headwind, huge growth runway for company/segment. It can't be in a niche space & demand must not be easily substitutable
2. Strong Biz Model, high growth curve (15%+ over the period), strong ROE profile (hurdle rate 20%)

3. Low or no leverage, efficient capital allocation, (read minimal or zero fresh dilution requirements), strong cash flows and correspondingly high dividend payout ratios (consistent dividend history) and finally strong moat and with limited regulatory involvement / no reg issues

4. Promoter quality and intention must be beyond reproach, proven management with skin in the game
5. Capability to manage disruption, and if possible to even profit from it. If you can't be disrupted easily, you will eventually adapt your game to gain scale

6. There must be a possibility of non-linear growth if the scale-up hypothesis gets proven right. It's like an FD with low fixed return plus significant upside optionality. Multiple revenue streams / margin levers / IP that can provide non linearity in growth

Detailed thread as I promised to RIDE THE TREND with super ease✅

Do read fully as it starts from basic to end & can be long one...

Do retweet & like as this is yrs of my hardwork in few tweets (1/n)

1) For riding trends, first you have to understand trends - Here is how a complete cycle of stock looks like..Stock has 4 stages...We need to be in 2nd one to make money.
Now here we go deeper into stage 2 (2/n)

2) Any stage 2 has phases as this is not a linear journey but the stock will set up multiple bases in between...Below is the example of Balaji amines that highlights how the stage 2 in reality looks now.....

3) So a Stage 2 has periods of bases in between which are the typical resting period for digesting earlier gains. Theoretically looks like this..Stage 2 then a base within stage 2 and stage 2 resumes....

4) The real question is how to ride trend between the bases peacefully so that we don't have to wait in consolidation.

This is the Ideal Place to Start Buying after the Market decline

Let the Stage1 form and then buy with patience when it moves to Stage2

Cash is a position 👌

Buy the Dip is not required to get Rich

#VVVLearning

Triggers and Sequence of Events that will propel #Nifty to new
"All Time High" 👉🏻 18,604.50

Small 🧵👇🏻

- Russia - Ukraine War comes an end shortly.

- Will result in immediate fall of Crude oil,
major Reason for Inflation.

- Fed Turns Dovish as inflation Cools off.

- Lower Inflation = Better earnings declared by companies.

- Better Earnings mean Higher EPS and PE Contraction.

- Lower Inflation = Dovish Fed

- Dovish Fed Will result in Major Correction Dollar.

- Bearish Dollar will lead to Bullish trend Emerging Market.

Do like and Retweet if you liked this thread.👍🏻

Follow me if you would like read more such content in near future👍🏻