We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.
To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Most people suck at decision-making.
Let's change that.
Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found 🧵
We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.
To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Describes the thinking process we go through—often subconsciously—to get from a fact to a decision or action.
To make better decisions, we should move slowly and deliberately from the bottom of the ladder to the top of the ladder.
h/t (image) - @amrancz
The more confidence you have in the importance of a problem and your understanding of its solution, the more you should focus on quality.
However, if you need to learn more, move fast and break things.
h/t - @BrandonMChu
The antidote to confirmation bias.
It involves forcing yourself to view a decision from the opposite viewpoint or finding people who disagree with you.
It forces you to create a more compelling argument.
Don't take my word for it:
Involves assuming that your decision has failed and working backwards to determine what the potential causes were.
This process has multiple benefits:
• Removes overconfidence and irrational optimism
• Reveals blind spots
• Simplifies thinking
h/t @KleInsight
Regardless of success or failure, this can be used to drive continuous improvement in your decision-making.
Here, you ask:
• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What can be improved next time?
With the answers, future decisions will be better informed.
These are tree-like graphs with the branches showing results of possible choices for a given decision or action.
The decision tree allows options to be compared against each other, for both risk and return.
They're particularly helpful for financial decisions.
Information overload is when you have too much information at hand.
This causes decisions to take too long.
It also leads to 'analysis paralysis' where your decision-making suffers paralysis because you over-analyze the body of information available.
It's the paradox of choice: having too many good options slows us down because the best one isn't clear.
Remember: by not making a choice, you are actually making a choice: the status quo.
A model to cope with this: reversible vs. irreversible decisions.
Irreversible decisions are 'one-way doors.'
They must be made slowly and deliberately.
Reversible decisions are 'two-way doors.'
These decisions can and should be made quickly.
https://t.co/IEwHegYCyB
The @JeffBezos Reversible Vs. Irreversible Decisions Framework is a powerful mental model for unlocking growth in your career, business, relationships, or life.
— Alex Brogan \U0001f6a2 (@_alexbrogan) May 4, 2022
A short thread on what it is and how it can improve your life: pic.twitter.com/GjgikKWTHm
If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.
Should I stay in tonight or should I go and meet this interesting stranger?
Choose to increase your surface area of luck when you have the choice.
Your 80-year-old self helps you makes decisions you won't regret when you're old.
Your 10-year-old self reminds you to stay foolish and have some fun along the way.
h/t - @SahilBloom
A concept from tennis, 'unforced error' is a metaphor for any situation where an avoidable mistake is made.
The first goal of decision-making should always be to minimize unforced errors.
How?
Sound judgement and decision making techniques.
The biggest mistake when judging performance is only looking at the outcome.
Instead, we should focus on the process used.
It's possible to win with a bad decision making process (luck) or lose with a good process.
What's important is knowing the 'Why.'
We're all guilty of making decisions without thinking about long term consequences.
To avoid this, ask:
• How will I feel about this 10 minutes from now?
• 10 months from now?
• 10 years from now?
This helps clarify the decision that results in a win/win/win.
Tell me, what would you add?
If you enjoyed this thread:
1. Follow me @_alexbrogan for more mental models, concepts, and frameworks
2. RT the tweet below to share this with others who might enjoy it :) https://t.co/DUuiG7bnyY
Most people suck at decision-making.
— Alex Brogan \U0001f6a2 (@_alexbrogan) May 7, 2022
Let's change that.
Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found \U0001f9f5
More from Alex Brogan 🚢
10 insanely useful free websites you needed but no one told you about (instant bookmarks):
#1: https://t.co/jRQsijD6i7
Ever wondered what technology the most successful startups in the world are using?
Wonder no more.
CT provides a curation of the design, research, code, support, and feedback tools of the best tech teams.
https://t.co/utBqlcETqP
#2: Excel Formula Bot
Using excel, but forgot the right formula? @bresslertweets has you sorted.
Excel Formula Bot uses AI to transform text instructions to an excel formula.
The result? No more remembering complicated excel formulas.
https://t.co/2oBbrpX5lt
#3: Calm Calendar
Synchronise your events between your personal and work calendars, while excluding private details.
The result?
• Fewer conflicts
• Better privacy
• One source of truth for your personal & work calendar
https://t.co/6cLYX37cFl
#4: TypeLit
Kill two birds with one stone with TypeLit:
1) Improve your typing skills
2) Learn from any book in the world
How? TypeLit provides typing practice on any of your favourite books—or you can choose from dozens of pre-loaded classics.
#1: https://t.co/jRQsijD6i7
Ever wondered what technology the most successful startups in the world are using?
Wonder no more.
CT provides a curation of the design, research, code, support, and feedback tools of the best tech teams.
https://t.co/utBqlcETqP
#2: Excel Formula Bot
Using excel, but forgot the right formula? @bresslertweets has you sorted.
Excel Formula Bot uses AI to transform text instructions to an excel formula.
The result? No more remembering complicated excel formulas.
https://t.co/2oBbrpX5lt
#3: Calm Calendar
Synchronise your events between your personal and work calendars, while excluding private details.
The result?
• Fewer conflicts
• Better privacy
• One source of truth for your personal & work calendar
https://t.co/6cLYX37cFl
#4: TypeLit
Kill two birds with one stone with TypeLit:
1) Improve your typing skills
2) Learn from any book in the world
How? TypeLit provides typing practice on any of your favourite books—or you can choose from dozens of pre-loaded classics.
10 insanely useful free websites you needed but didn't know existed (instant bookmarks):
#1: https://t.co/TNMvBebYrm
Ever need somewhere fast to write something when you’re on your computer? Me too.
Type “https://t.co/TNMvBebYrm” into a new tab and you’ll have a notepad in your browser.
You can then:
• Save your note
• Export as a PDF
• Save as a Google Doc
#2: myNoise
Think of myNoise as free noise-canceling headphones.
It can create any noise you like to mask those you don’t:
• Busy streets
• Noisy colleagues
• Loud cafes or restaurants
You can listen to rain, white noise, or even the Ocean!
https://t.co/cIY3B7ipDu
#3: Followupthen
How many times have you looked at the same message sitting in your inbox that you kept there "just so you don't forget"?
FollowUpThen is an email address that can be added to any email to create an automatic follow-up reminder.
https://t.co/SwmHZI7SRv
#4: Rome2rio
Find the best way to get from A to B, anywhere in the world.
Compare every possible transport option all in one search:
• Plane
• Train
• Bus
• Car
• Ferry
• Bike share
• Driving
• Walking
Where to next?
https://t.co/V2k5xrIM4Q
#1: https://t.co/TNMvBebYrm
Ever need somewhere fast to write something when you’re on your computer? Me too.
Type “https://t.co/TNMvBebYrm” into a new tab and you’ll have a notepad in your browser.
You can then:
• Save your note
• Export as a PDF
• Save as a Google Doc
#2: myNoise
Think of myNoise as free noise-canceling headphones.
It can create any noise you like to mask those you don’t:
• Busy streets
• Noisy colleagues
• Loud cafes or restaurants
You can listen to rain, white noise, or even the Ocean!
https://t.co/cIY3B7ipDu
#3: Followupthen
How many times have you looked at the same message sitting in your inbox that you kept there "just so you don't forget"?
FollowUpThen is an email address that can be added to any email to create an automatic follow-up reminder.
https://t.co/SwmHZI7SRv
#4: Rome2rio
Find the best way to get from A to B, anywhere in the world.
Compare every possible transport option all in one search:
• Plane
• Train
• Bus
• Car
• Ferry
• Bike share
• Driving
• Walking
Where to next?
https://t.co/V2k5xrIM4Q
Most people have only just scratched the surface of the internet.
But beneath the shallow waters there’s pure gold.
Here are 10 of the most useful websites in existence:
https://t.co/YstnCuKJ4P
The best educational resources on the internet. All in one place. Period.
https://t.co/2HeKs2h8h8
A search engine that uses AI to find answers to your questions directly from scientific research.
https://t.co/h0ucAFUjAo
E-sign an unlimited number of documents for free in under 30 seconds.
Simply upload, sign, and send—no account required.
https://t.co/NpiPdNgA7K
A infographic of 200+ of the most important cognitive biases from Wikipedia.
Side: @buster has one of the best personal websites I’ve ever seen.
But beneath the shallow waters there’s pure gold.
Here are 10 of the most useful websites in existence:
https://t.co/YstnCuKJ4P
The best educational resources on the internet. All in one place. Period.
https://t.co/2HeKs2h8h8
A search engine that uses AI to find answers to your questions directly from scientific research.
https://t.co/h0ucAFUjAo
E-sign an unlimited number of documents for free in under 30 seconds.
Simply upload, sign, and send—no account required.
https://t.co/NpiPdNgA7K
A infographic of 200+ of the most important cognitive biases from Wikipedia.
Side: @buster has one of the best personal websites I’ve ever seen.
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Stan Lee, who died Monday at 95, was born in Manhattan and graduated from DeWitt Clinton High School in the Bronx. His pulp-fiction heroes have come to define much of popular culture in the early 21st century.
Tying Marvel’s stable of pulp-fiction heroes to a real place — New York — served a counterbalance to the sometimes gravity-challenged action and the improbability of the stories. That was just what Stan Lee wanted. https://t.co/rDosqzpP8i
The New York universe hooked readers. And the artists drew what they were familiar with, which made the Marvel universe authentic-looking, down to the water towers atop many of the buildings. https://t.co/rDosqzpP8i
The Avengers Mansion was a Beaux-Arts palace. Fans know it as 890 Fifth Avenue. The Frick Collection, which now occupies the place, uses the address of the front door: 1 East 70th Street.
"I really want to break into Product Management"
make products.
"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."
Make Products.
"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."
MAKE PRODUCTS.
Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.
There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.
You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.
But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.
And they don't need to be kept at the exact right temperature, given endless resource, or carefully protected in order to do this.
They find their own way.
make products.
"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."
Make Products.
"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."
MAKE PRODUCTS.
Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.
"I really want to break into comics"
— Ed Brisson (@edbrisson) December 4, 2018
make comics.
"If only someone would tell me how I can get an editor to notice me."
Make Comics.
"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."
MAKE COMICS.
There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.
You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.
But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.
And they don't need to be kept at the exact right temperature, given endless resource, or carefully protected in order to do this.
They find their own way.