BC PRINCIPLES
Saved by @tradrdoc

Most people suck at decision-making.

Let's change that.

Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found 🧵

 The Inside-Outside View

We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.

To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Ladder of Inference

Describes the thinking process we go through—often subconsciously—to get from a fact to a decision or action.

To make better decisions, we should move slowly and deliberately from the bottom of the ladder to the top of the ladder.

h/t (image) - @amrancz
@amrancz Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality

The more confidence you have in the importance of a problem and your understanding of its solution, the more you should focus on quality.

However, if you need to learn more, move fast and break things.

h/t - @BrandonMChu
@amrancz @BrandonMChu Devil’s Advocate Position

The antidote to confirmation bias.

It involves forcing yourself to view a decision from the opposite viewpoint or finding people who disagree with you.

It forces you to create a more compelling argument.

Don't take my word for it:
@amrancz @BrandonMChu Pre-Mortem

Involves assuming that your decision has failed and working backwards to determine what the potential causes were.

This process has multiple benefits:
• Removes overconfidence and irrational optimism
• Reveals blind spots
• Simplifies thinking

h/t @KleInsight
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Post-Mortem

Regardless of success or failure, this can be used to drive continuous improvement in your decision-making.

Here, you ask:
• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What can be improved next time?

With the answers, future decisions will be better informed.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Decision Trees

These are tree-like graphs with the branches showing results of possible choices for a given decision or action.

The decision tree allows options to be compared against each other, for both risk and return.

They're particularly helpful for financial decisions.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Information Overload

Information overload is when you have too much information at hand.

This causes decisions to take too long.

It also leads to 'analysis paralysis' where your decision-making suffers paralysis because you over-analyze the body of information available.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Analysis Paralysis

It's the paradox of choice: having too many good options slows us down because the best one isn't clear.

Remember: by not making a choice, you are actually making a choice: the status quo.

A model to cope with this: reversible vs. irreversible decisions.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions

Irreversible decisions are 'one-way doors.'

They must be made slowly and deliberately.

Reversible decisions are 'two-way doors.'

These decisions can and should be made quickly.

https://t.co/IEwHegYCyB
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Luck Razor

If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

Should I stay in tonight or should I go and meet this interesting stranger?

Choose to increase your surface area of luck when you have the choice.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Make Proud Decisions for Your 80-Year Old and 10-Year Old Self

Your 80-year-old self helps you makes decisions you won't regret when you're old.

Your 10-year-old self reminds you to stay foolish and have some fun along the way.

h/t - @SahilBloom
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom Minimize Unforced Errors

A concept from tennis, 'unforced error' is a metaphor for any situation where an avoidable mistake is made.

The first goal of decision-making should always be to minimize unforced errors.

How?

Sound judgement and decision making techniques.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom Outcome Blind

The biggest mistake when judging performance is only looking at the outcome.

Instead, we should focus on the process used.

It's possible to win with a bad decision making process (luck) or lose with a good process.

What's important is knowing the 'Why.'
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom 10/10/10 Rule

We're all guilty of making decisions without thinking about long term consequences.

To avoid this, ask:
• How will I feel about this 10 minutes from now?
• 10 months from now?
• 10 years from now?

This helps clarify the decision that results in a win/win/win.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom That's 15 of the best decision-making models I've found.

Tell me, what would you add?

If you enjoyed this thread:

1. Follow me @_alexbrogan for more mental models, concepts, and frameworks

2. RT the tweet below to share this with others who might enjoy it :) https://t.co/DUuiG7bnyY

More from Alex Brogan 🚢

Alex Brogan
Alex Brogan
@_alexbrogan
10 incredible free websites that will make you more intelligent (if you let them):

#1: Information is beautiful

Information is beautiful distills data, information, and knowledge into beautiful, useful graphics & diagrams.

The site is dedicated to helping you make clearer, more informed decisions about the world.

https://t.co/jGOyHH7ge3


#2: Kialo

Kialo allows you to see arguments on both sides of any debate in the world.

As Charlie Munger said, “I never let myself hold an opinion on anything that I don't know the other side's argument better than they do.”

Kialo helps you do that.

https://t.co/oDSxo7ldDR


#3: System

System is a free, open, and living public resource that aims to explain how anything in the world is related to everything else.

It comprises thousands of relationships between hundreds of topics, and counting.

https://t.co/ecFESQIsnf


#4: Class Central

Find the best online courses in the world, all in one place.

Class Central aggregates courses from:
• 1000 Universities (Harvard, Stanford, etc.)
• 70 Providers (Coursera, Udemy, etc.)
• 600 Institutions (Google, Amazon, etc.)

https://t.co/bNQgv6CPG4
ALL
Alex Brogan
Alex Brogan
@_alexbrogan
10 worldview changing mental models that will make you smarter:

Consensus-Contrarian Matrix

In order to produce outsized returns in any given area, you have to both bet against the convention and be right.

”You can’t take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform.”
—Howard Marks


Curse of Knowledge

Once we know something, we assume everyone else knows it, too.

It's why some experts can't explain their field in simple terms and people don't share knowledge that could benefit others.

Lesson: There are always people to teach and people to learn from.

Perfect Solution Fallacy

We reject something because it compares poorly to an ideal that in reality is unattainable.

We assume there is a perfect solution to every problem.

Reality is more complicated and trade-offs exist.

Take the option with the most bearable trade-offs.

Pessimism Bias

We overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes.

Evolutionary speaking this developed as a defence mechanism and served us well.

We heard a noise in the bushes and ran.

This doesn't apply anymore: we've never lived in a safer world.

Be an optimist.
ALL
Advertisement
Alex Brogan
Alex Brogan
@_alexbrogan
If you want to win an argument, don't make these mistakes:

First things first: The best way to win an argument is to not enter one in the first place.

However, we don't always have that luxury and can sometimes find ourselves needing to defend a point of view.

If this happens, here are 15 logical fallacies to avoid:

Anecdotal (vs. Empirical Evidence)

Using a personal experience or an isolated example to try and prove a point instead of empirical or more compelling evidence.

Humans tend to believe and relate to stories, but don't fall into this trap.

What's true for you isn't always true.

Likely or Plausible Fallacy

Likely: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is possible means that it is likely.

Plausible: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is plausible means that it is true.

Begging The Question

Involves presenting a circular argument where the conclusion is included in the premise.

Examples:

1/ "Of course smoking causes cancer. The smoke from cigarettes is a carcinogen."

2/ "Circular reasoning is bad mostly because it's not very good."
PRINCIPLES
Alex Brogan
Alex Brogan
@_alexbrogan
14 of the world’s best thinkers (and their best free content):

#1: Ray Kurzweil

Main areas of thought leadership:
• Technology trends & futurism
• Artificial Intelligence design & development
• Transhumanism

#2: Brené Brown

Main areas of thought leadership:
• Courage
• Vulnerability
• Shame
• Empathy

#3: Nassim Taleb

Main areas of thought leadership:
• Randomness
• Probability
•

#4: Naval Ravikant

Main areas of thought leadership:
• Practical, modern day philosophy
• Building personal wealth & leverage
• Startups &
ALL
Alex Brogan
Alex Brogan
@_alexbrogan
YouTube is free education from the best minds in the world.

But 99% don’t know the best classes to take.

Here are the top channels to advance your learning:

Kurzgesagt

Teachings:
• Technology
• Politics
• History
• Philosophy
•

CrashCourse

Teachings:
• Literature
• World history
• Biology
• Philosophy
• Much

Ted-Ed

Teachings:
• Science
• Commerce
• Philosophy
• Maths
• Everything under the

CGP Grey

Teachings:
• Politics
• Geography
• Economics
• Sociology
• History
•
ALL

More from Principles

Philosophy Thoughts
Philosophy Thoughts
@Philosophy_DQ
15 Deep Psychology And Philosophy Quotes From "Carl Jung"

| Thread


1. "The world will ask you who you are, and if you don't know, the world will tell you."

- Carl Jung

2. "You are what you do, not what you say you'll do."

- Carl Jung

3. "Everything that irritates us about others can lead to an understanding of ourselves."

- Carl Jung

4. "If a man knows more than others, he becomes lonely."

- Carl Jung
PRINCIPLES
Philosophy Thoughts
Philosophy Thoughts
@Philosophy_DQ
15 Deep Philosophy Quotes From "Socrates"

| Thread


1. “Strong minds discuss ideas,
average minds discuss events,
weak minds discuss people.”

- Socrates

2. "Awareness of ignorance is the beginning of wisdom."

- Socrates

3. “The mind is everything; what you think you become”

- Socrates

4. "By all means, marry. If you get a good wife, you'll become happy;

if you get a bad one, you'll become a philosopher."

- Socrates
PRINCIPLES
Advertisement
Alex Brogan
Alex Brogan
@_alexbrogan
If you want to win an argument, don't make these mistakes:

First things first: The best way to win an argument is to not enter one in the first place.

However, we don't always have that luxury and can sometimes find ourselves needing to defend a point of view.

If this happens, here are 15 logical fallacies to avoid:

Anecdotal (vs. Empirical Evidence)

Using a personal experience or an isolated example to try and prove a point instead of empirical or more compelling evidence.

Humans tend to believe and relate to stories, but don't fall into this trap.

What's true for you isn't always true.

Likely or Plausible Fallacy

Likely: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is possible means that it is likely.

Plausible: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is plausible means that it is true.

Begging The Question

Involves presenting a circular argument where the conclusion is included in the premise.

Examples:

1/ "Of course smoking causes cancer. The smoke from cigarettes is a carcinogen."

2/ "Circular reasoning is bad mostly because it's not very good."
PRINCIPLES
Alex Mathers
Alex Mathers
@Alexmathers84
Life can often seem relentless and exhausting.

I know what that's like.

Here are 10 timeless ideas that will instantly strengthen you:

🔆 Nothing can hurt you when you know you have nothing to protect.

Self-esteem is an illusion.

You can't damage what is made up.

You are unfathomably bigger than the idea you hold of yourself in your mind.

🔆You were already a success the day you were born.

Life is a miracle, and getting here means you already won.

Allow the time you're alive in the world to play, to create and to thrive from a position of realised strength.

🔆 Any criticism you receive may seem like an attack.

But the perpetrator is always attacking themselves.

It is always a projection rooted in personal insecurity.

It is never about you.

They are resisting their thoughts about you, not you.
PRINCIPLES
Philosophy Thoughts
Philosophy Thoughts
@Philosophy_DQ
15 Deep Philosophy Quotes From "Heraclitus"

| Thread


1. "The content of your character is your choice.

Day by day, what you choose, what you think and what you do is who you become."

- Heraclitus

2. "Those who approach life like a child playing a game, moving and pushing pieces, possess the power of kings."

- Heraclitus

3. "Dogs bark at what they don't understand."

- Heraclitus

4. “No man ever steps in the same river twice,

for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.”

-Heraclitus
PRINCIPLES

You May Also Like

Ferruccio Balestreri \U0001f308
Ferruccio Balestreri 🌈...
@0xferruccio
🕵️‍♂️ How Google's PageRank algorithm works

The PageRank algorithm gives each page a rating of its
importance, which is a recursively defined measure of importance, based on if important pages link to it.
It's recursive because the importance of a page refers back to the importance of other pages that link to it

Here's how it works in practice:
1⃣ We start with some pages and crawl them for links


2⃣ Each page has 1/N points (where N as the total number of pages)


3⃣ Add points to each page for the amount of links to it, divided by the number
of links emanating from the sources of these links
TECH
Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
Trading view scanner process -

1 - open trading view in your browser and select stock scanner in left corner down side .

2 - touch the percentage% gain change ( and u can see higest gainer of today)


3. Then, start with 6% gainer to 20% gainer and look charts of everyone in daily Timeframe . (For fno selection u can choose 1% to 4% )

4. Then manually select the stocks which are going to give all time high BO or 52 high BO or already given.

5. U can also select those stocks which are going to give range breakout or already given range BO

6 . If in 15 min chart📊 any stock sustaing near BO zone or after BO then select it on your watchlist

7 . Now next day if any stock show momentum u can take trade in it with RM

This looks very easy & simple but,

U will amazed to see it's result if you follow proper risk management.

I did 4x my capital by trading in only momentum stocks.

I will keep sharing such learning thread 🧵 for you 🙏💞🙏

Keep learning / keep sharing 🙏
@AdityaTodmal
EQUITY , TRADINGTHREAD , TRADINGVIEW
Advertisement
k\u0101rthik \u0b95\u0bbe\u0bb0\u0bcd\u0ba4\u0bcd\u0ba4\u0bbf\u0b95\u0bcd \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0924\u093f\u0915 \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3 | Sanatani
kārthik கார்த்திக் कार...
@almightykarthik
Hello Dear Tweeples!

It’s Siddhars time of the week! Last week I shared story of Guru (Machamuni or Yogi Matsyendranath), this week I bring you information on his Shishya.

#Thread on Gorakanathar Siddhar.

@LostTemple7


His origin story is interesting, though I couldn’t verify it’s authenticity, so not sharing the story here. He’s shishya of Machamuni Siddhar and also learnt from Agasthiya Siddhar.

@HelloNNewman @RajiIndustani @Kishoreciyer1

Unlike other Siddhars, he is depicted as either with a Tiger or seated & wearing Tiger skin. While I couldn’t find any explanation for this. My interpretation is as follows:

Tiger is a predator that lurks around and attacks unexpectedly.


Our 5 indriyas and 5 vikitis also similar to Tiger, they lurk around and attacks our thoughts when we’re least expecting. Gorakkar is said to have mastered these aspects, thus to denote this, he shown with Tiger.

@Itishree001 @VarierSangitha @jananisampath

Gorakanathar or Gorakshnath (as he’s known in the Nath Sampraday) is celebrated Guru in both Northern and Southern part of India. He’s one of the NavNath in Nath Sampraday and also 18 Siddhars of Tamil tradition. During his life, he’s travelled Indian subcontinent extensively +
RELIGION , ALL
Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Enough Jaw Jaw, this is War!
1. People's Justice Courts to be set up worldwide
2. Citizens' arrests of all Identified Suspects
3. Lab Inspections
3. Harsh interrogation using MKULTRA
4. Public Show Trials video streamed live
5. Cross Questioning of suspects via Twitter & Zoom
6.


A growing list of suspects to be interrogated


Foul Traitors, Charlatans, Frauds, Bat Molesters! Frankensteins, Well Poisoners, Plotters, Deceivers!
Dr. Shipmans, Saboteurs, Devils in White Coats!


Organisations to be Investigated
WIV
Wuhan University IMA
WIBP
WCDC
BEIJING IPB
Nanjing Military Lab
SinoPharm
BARDA
NIH
EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS
BIOPORT
GILEAD
SIAC
QTEL
USAMRIID
FORT DETRICK
DARPA
DTRA
Metbiota
ONE HEALTH
GVP
ECOHEALTH
MITRE
BATTELLE
TUNNELL
LAURIMA GOV SERVICES


Suspects (1)
China
Zhengli Shi
Peng Zhou
George Gao
Deyin Guo
Major General Chen Wei
United States
ALEX AZAR
JONNA MAZET
ALISON O’TOOLE
ANTHONY FAUCI
BOYD YOUNT
DAVID FRANZ
DAVID KARESH
DENNIS CARROLL
DYLAN GEORGE
GEORGE PAINTER
IAN LIPKIN
JENS KUHN
JEROME HAUER
JONATHAN EPSTEIN
WORLD , ALL
Panic! in the Discord
Panic! in the Discord
@discord__panic
Neo-nazi group #PatriotFront held a photo op in #Chicago last weekend & is currently marching around #DC so it's as good time as any to compile a list of their identified members for folks to watch for

Who are these chuds?

Patriot Front broke away from white nationalist org Vanguard America following #unitetheright in #charlottesville after James Alex Fields was seen with a VA shield before driving his car into a crowd, murdering Heather Heyer & injuring dozens of others

Syed Robbie Javid a.k.a. Sayed Robbie Javid or Robbie Javid of Alexandria,


Antoine Bernard Renard (a.k.a. “Charlemagne MD” on Discord) from Rockville, MD.

https://t.co/ykEjdZFDi6


Brandon Troy Higgs, 25, from Reisterstown,
EXTREMISM