Doubt and uncertainty make us feel uncomfortable.
And when we don't have clarity, we start rushing decisions to avoid that feeling of uncertainty.
When in doubt, take a deep breath and sleep on it before making a decision.
Mental models can save your life.
But psychological biases can ruin it.
Here are 10 psychological biases to help you avoid a life of pain and suffering:
Doubt and uncertainty make us feel uncomfortable.
And when we don't have clarity, we start rushing decisions to avoid that feeling of uncertainty.
When in doubt, take a deep breath and sleep on it before making a decision.
When we want something badly, we start overestimating our odds of success.
It's why so many people bet on their sports team to win.
It's also why millions buy lottery tickets.
Don't let what you want cloud your judgment of what you should do.
The tendency to treat others as they've treated us.
When treated well: "You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours."
When treated badly: "An eye for an eye."
Sometimes this tendency can lead to endless conflict.
Resist the urge to reciprocate bad behaviour.
We copy other people's behaviour when making decisions.
Especially when we're feeling uncertain.
This is why so many ads have celebrity endorsements and user testimonials.
Next time you make a decision, be mindful of other people's influence.
The psychological pain of losing something is twice as strong as the pleasure of gaining it in the first place.
It's why many gamblers go broke trying to recover from their first loss.
Be careful not to overreact when you lose something you value.
Humans have evolved to avoid pain - it's how we survive.
But this bias often leads us to avoid short term psychological pain instead of facing reality - aka denial.
This commonly happens in market bubbles when investors lose touch with business fundamentals.
We have an innate need to appear consistent to others.
We're afraid of people calling us a hypocrite.
But this prevents us from changing dangerous beliefs and harmful behaviours.
Keep this in mind next time you're trying to change a bad habit.
We have a tendency to follow people in positions of authority.
Children follow parents. Soldiers follow generals. Students follow teachers.
But too much blind faith in authority can lead us to follow the wrong people.
Always question the person "in charge."
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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
1/\u201cWhat would need to be true for you to\u2026.X\u201d
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) December 4, 2018
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody: https://t.co/Yo6jHbSit9
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
