Mental models can save your life.

But psychological biases can ruin it.

Here are 10 psychological biases to help you avoid a life of pain and suffering:

1. Doubt-avoidance:

Doubt and uncertainty make us feel uncomfortable.

And when we don't have clarity, we start rushing decisions to avoid that feeling of uncertainty.

When in doubt, take a deep breath and sleep on it before making a decision.
2. Overoptimism bias:

When we want something badly, we start overestimating our odds of success.

It's why so many people bet on their sports team to win.

It's also why millions buy lottery tickets.

Don't let what you want cloud your judgment of what you should do.
3. Reciprocation:

The tendency to treat others as they've treated us.

When treated well: "You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours."

When treated badly: "An eye for an eye."

Sometimes this tendency can lead to endless conflict.

Resist the urge to reciprocate bad behaviour.
4. Social Proof:

We copy other people's behaviour when making decisions.

Especially when we're feeling uncertain.

This is why so many ads have celebrity endorsements and user testimonials.

Next time you make a decision, be mindful of other people's influence.
5. Deprival-Superreaction :

The psychological pain of losing something is twice as strong as the pleasure of gaining it in the first place.

It's why many gamblers go broke trying to recover from their first loss.

Be careful not to overreact when you lose something you value.
6. Pain avoidance.

Humans have evolved to avoid pain - it's how we survive.

But this bias often leads us to avoid short term psychological pain instead of facing reality - aka denial.

This commonly happens in market bubbles when investors lose touch with business fundamentals.
7. Inconsistency-avoidance:

We have an innate need to appear consistent to others.

We're afraid of people calling us a hypocrite.

But this prevents us from changing dangerous beliefs and harmful behaviours.

Keep this in mind next time you're trying to change a bad habit.
8. Authority bias:

We have a tendency to follow people in positions of authority.

Children follow parents. Soldiers follow generals. Students follow teachers.

But too much blind faith in authority can lead us to follow the wrong people.

Always question the person "in charge."
9. Dunning-Kruger effect:

People tend to overestimate their competence in a given field.

This can lead to terrible decisions:

Bad investments, difficult jobs, and so on.

Try to asses your skills objectively (tests, peer evaluations etc.) before signing up for a big decision.
10. Liking Bias:

When we like someone or something, we begin to overlook their defects:

- Investing in a dubious company because of a charismatic CEO.

- Ignoring someone's flaws because you love them.

Be extra vigilant when making a decision that involves someone you like.

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.