Follow up thread on Eric Coomer.

New: Dominion Voting Systems employee SUES Trump campaign and allies https://t.co/7dEEapCEYI via @MailOnline

So. Anyone who watched the Bobulinski interview last night now understands the seriousness of his allegations. He dropped bombshell after bombshell last night while also providing iron clad evidence to his claims. Text messages, emails, private meetings in dimly lit hotel...

Ok. We are 50 hours out from the first polls closing. Here's @NextIrishGE take on what to look out for on Tuesday night...… and beyond.

7PM EST (Midnight🇮🇪) Partial results from IN & KY will be joined by VT, SC, GA & VA.

Key here will be Georgia. It appears to be deadlocked, and if it goes blue it's game over for Trump. Atlanta Metro Area turnout will be key here.

In the Senate, watch GA and SC (both R-inc).

7.30PM EST (12.30AM🇮🇪)

Three states: NC, OH & WV. All Trump states in 2016, if Biden wins either NC or OH, it looks over for Trump. Both will report quickly, so likely calls will be made at some point.

Two Senate races here, but watch NC where R-inc Tillis looks to be behind.

8PM (1AM🇮🇪)

16 States + DC.

Florida will already have around 80% in at this stage, so a call could be made rapidly. Other swing states closing are PA and NH, but don't expect results from the former for some days.

Watch ME senate.

8.30PM (1.30AM🇮🇪)

Only Arkansas closing. Both Trump and R-inc Sen. Cotton expected to win easily.

Summary of the Michigan Kraken release. Once again, Happy Thanksgiving, America!

COUNT I
Defendants Violated the Elections and Electors Clauses and 42 U.S.C. § 1983.

(Thread) Over the Cliff Notes: Impeachment #2

Let’s start with the Article of Impeachment itself: https://t.co/KRiPGstRwi

The charge: Incitement of Insurrection.

Spoiler: This is a slam-dunk in the impeach-and-convict department, and will create a moment of truth for the GOP.

1/ The basics:

🔹Impeachment requires a majority vote in the House. 

🔹Impeachment is followed by a Senate Trial.

🔹Conviction requires 2/3 of the Senate.

After conviction, preventing Trump from holding office again requires a simple majority vote.

2/ This is not a criminal trial.

The Constitution specifically says that a criminal trial may be appropriate AFTER impeachment and removal.

Defendants in a criminal trial have special protections because they stand to lose their liberty, property, or even their life.

3/ An impeached president stands to lose his job and the ability to hold the job again.

Therefore certain requirements for a criminal trial, such as the requirement that allegations be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, do not apply.

4/ In addition to charging Incitement of Insurrection, the Article invokes the 14th Amendment (sec 3) and Trump’s duty to faithfully execute the oath of office. 

Notice the 14th Amendment doesn’t give the procedure for determining when Section 3 applies.

(1) #ReplacePelosiJan3 & negotiate w/other Speaker candidates 2 THEN #ForceTheVote + get more changes. Why? We can't tolerate 2 more yrs of her leadership in the House. She has an awful record & is an incompetent negotiator.

(2) #ReplacePelosiJan3 & negotiate w/other Speaker candidates 2 THEN #ForceTheVote + get more changes. Pelosi led the Democrats to a disastrous defeat in 2010 after failing to pass MFA then. In 2020, she led Ds to lose 10 seats in the House & set them up 4 a disaster in2022.

(3) #ReplacePelosiJan3 & negotiate w/other Speaker candidates 2 THEN #ForceTheVote + get more changes. Pelosi is a fiscal disaster imposing paygo on the Dem Party for yrs & stopping progressive legislation requiring deficit spending. She is a fiscal hawk down with austerity.

#ReplacePelosiJan3 & negotiate w/other Speaker candidates 2 THEN #ForceTheVote + get more changes. Pelosi is a disaster when it comes to military spending. She never met a Defense spending bill she didn't like.

(5) #ReplacePelosiJan3 & negotiate w/other Speaker candidates 2 THEN #ForceTheVote + get more changes. What kinds of changes? Floor votes on GND bills such as a Federal Job Guarantee or a Basic Income, or Free College or Student Debt elimination or paid family leave.

Continued thread 3
1/21
“The chances that you would have 1,000 votes in a row would be something like 2 quadrillion-to-1 against.

2/21
“The chances that you could ever see 123,000 votes in a row for the same person are – you could go pick a grain of sand on a beach and I could go pick a grain of sand on another beach and the chances that we picked the same grain is as close to you can get to zero.

3/21
So, the point is that these three things line up: Bucket #1. The technical capabilities of the machines; Bucket #2. The lived experience of the people who went & voted in these districts &; Bucket #3. The statistical results – all dovetail together & tell this ironclad story

4/21
“You’ve gotta prove ‘Could it happen?’ and ‘Did it happen?’ The question of ‘Could it happen?’ is addressed by Bucket #1, that the machines have this functionality. The question of ‘Did it happen?’ is proven by Buckets #2 and #3, the lived experience of the people who lived

5/21
and voted in these precincts and the statistical outcomes all prove it did happen.

“So, together, all that information fits hand-in-glove, perfectly.”

My Thoughts: #ClintonFoundationWhistleblowers

(1/15) This country needs more honest, open and aggressive debate and sharing of ideas and opinions so thank you to those individuals on this thread with similar or vastly different views but who have individually committed

BREAKING: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton today filed an *election* lawsuit against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the United States Supreme

Texas brought the suit straight to SCOTUS. Key allegations:

1. Unconstitutional changes to election laws
2. Unequal treatment of voters within each state
3. Voting irregularities "consistent with
the unconstitutional relaxation of ballot-integrity
protections."

From the bill of complaint: "These flaws cumulatively preclude knowing who legitimately won the 2020 election and threaten to cloud all future elections."

PDF:

"Our Country stands at an important crossroads. Either the Constitution matters and must be followed, even when some officials consider it inconvenient or out of date, or it is simply a piece of parchment on display at the National Archives.We ask the Court to choose the former."

On the Electoral College deadline: "That deadline ... should not cement a potentially illegitimate election result in the middle of this storm—a storm that is of the Defendant States’ own making by virtue of their own unconstitutional actions."

Typically during an #FCCLive @FCC open meeting like today's 10:30, especially one with #NetNeutrality & #TitleII on tap, I tweet (a lot) to debunk the nonsense put out there by @AjitPaiFCC, @BrendanCarrFCC, and their enablers. But today let's take a different approach.

For today's remand order vote, with the Pai FCC botching the DC Circuit's mandate to look at how the repeal and reclassification decisions also harm public safety, broadband competition, and #Lifeline support for broadband, I decided to pre-but as much as I could. #FCCLive

Let's see how quickly my talking points bingo card fills up once the meeting starts at 10:30. But at very least I'll have succeeded in filling up Pai and Carr's mentions and the #FCCLive hashtag. (It's the little things that keep us going this week.)

The mega-thread that follows is long, but I wanted to draw on all of the great work @FreePress has done over the past week, year, and really more than a decade now, debunking the deregulatory fantasy figures put out by Pai and people like him. #FCCLive

So watch this space later for @freepress's final press statement by @danaflo on today's all-but-certain outcome. In the meantime, let's explore why Pai's predetermined outcome is outrageous, amidst all of the other outrages we can see right now. #FCCLive

Obama's homestretch itinerary: On the campaign trail and inside Trump's head
For nearly four years, the former president refrained from attacking his successor. As he took to the trail on Biden's behalf in the 2020 race's closing days, the gloves came

What a LIE. He, they, didn't refrain from anything! Perhaps you missed the attempt to frame him for colluding with Russia to steal an election?

Some early theories on went went wrong with the pre-election polling this

Before we go into what went wrong, let's just call a spade a spade here: this was a bad polling error. It's comparable to 2016 in size, but pollsters don't have the excuses they did last time.
This year's polls would have been *way* worse than 2016 with a 2016 methodology

There are really two halves of polling: the quality of the sample you get, and the adjustments you take to improve the representativeness of your sample.
Since 2016, pollsters got better at the adjustments, but the underlying sample got worse

To my mind, the easiest way to see it: the crosstabs on white voters nationwide, particularly whites without a degree
In 2016, the polls *did* show Trump doing way better among those voters.
In 2020, they did not. And they were dead wrong.
Same story with seniors.

So what happened? How did the samples get that much worse over the last four years, especially among white voters without a degree and seniors?
At this stage, it's really just speculation. We'll know more later--it's too early for an autopsy.
But here's some early speculation

Before I try to solve the GoodReserve vs. GoodStaking problem, which involves math and time and interest, let me solve something easier, which is all of modern politics.

Here's an example. When the pandemic was in the first wave here in Brazil, you could see lots of cultural noise about the fact that rich people were not dying because they got hospital care, whereas poor maids etc. were getting infected by rich people e.g. coming back from Italy.

Then, after a while, this story died. We "know" this now, but nothing happened.

When this sort of thing happens -- lots of noise, followed by normalization -- we are trained to think that that's *OUR* fault as cultural noisemakers.

IF ONLY WE MADE MORE NOISE, we think.

Why do we think that?

We think that because of all the times making noise worked.

Or did it? Did it actually work? Was it actually the noise that "changed" things?

Nope. The noise doesn't change anything.

EVER.

Here's how this works.

Since it's Veteran's Day, it seems like an appropriate time to talk about how the Georgia General Assembly has screwed military voters out of their opportunity to vote in runoff elections for state offices like the one we're about to have on December 1 (for PSC). #gapol 1/

To begin, you have to understand that there is a federal law, the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (known as UOCAVA "you-oh-cava"), that protects military voters and citizens living overseas. 2/

One provision of the UOCAVA requires states to send absentee ballots to protected UOCAVA voters at least 45 days before any federal election. This is because mail to and from overseas military can be very slow. 3/

Back in the early 2010s, the Department of Justice under Obama sued the State of Georgia because the state's election calendar held runoff elections too close to the general election to allow absentee ballots to meet the 45-day deadline. 4/

Georgia argued in court that the UOCAVA did not apply to runoff elections and it lost. UOCAVA applies to *all* federal elections, including runoff elections. 5/

Here are there I’m seeing surprise expressed at the white women players in storming the capitol.

I want to talk about that because I’m not surprised.

I’m not surprised because as a fiber artist I’ve seen these women for DECADES.

Thread.

These are the women who were tone policing knitters of color on newsgroups and mailing lists in the 1990s.

These are the women who don’t see color and just came here to do their craft thing and why does everything have to be about politics?

These are the women who were doxxing and swatting other crocheters in a group I moderated (and shut down) in 2005 on livejournal.

These are the women who, along with their hovering spouses, have open carried in my handspinning classroom.

These are the women who made lists of anti-trump fiber arts teachers and circulated those for harassment.

These are the women who post reviews on Amazon saying “she’s a racist who banned me because I’m white.”

These are the women who hate it when someone says “fuck.”

These are the WHITE WOMEN who say “stop the hate! This is supposed to be about the knitting.” Or spinning or weaving or whatever.