1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.

2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN

3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .

4) . . they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.

SIXTY THOUSAND!

5) Who do you think is NOT responding?

Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.

6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more

7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . .

and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.

1) You have to be a little vain to be on Twit & think your opinion matters to others. That's ok.

2) Personally, I'm honored & flattered that even 10 of you would follow me, let alone the number who do.

3) So, with that in mind, it's been said that there is the "Evil Party & the Stupid Party."

4) Increasingly, I think that's wrong.

5) There is definitely the Evil Party, the DemoKKKrats. What I think we overlook is that they know their evil & just don't care.

6) But I don't think you get where Yertle, Tom Collins, Minion & some of the others in the GOP are by being stupid.

7) I think they are vain to the radical extreme.

8) They are the Vain Party, who really believe that 74m people voted for "them" in November; who really . . .

8) contd . . . believe that "they know what's best" & their pucksnorter consultants are intelligent & skilled.

They really believe we do NOT matter because they are so much smarter. We just "don't get it." We don't see "how the game is played."

9) Here is the important part: this vanity comes from believing they are morally superior to everyone. That they can "lose gracefully" because people will appreciate how moral & upstanding they are & credit them.

1) 538 walks it back:
Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties,

2) with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm.”

3) Give little Natey a week and he'll see what we see: An R turnout advantage.

1) A little story about "exit polls."

2) The year was 2004. Kerry was supposedly leading W.

3) I was active in a key precinct in Dayton, OH, a true bellwether for ALL of OH.

4) Rs knew if their voters turned out (due to R registration edge) W would win.

5) I was assigned to do "poll flushing." This is when you go to the precinct at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and check off all the Republicans who had voted.

Then callers will get on the phone to those who haven't yet voted & try to get them out.

6) The first poll flushing was normal and expected #s.

7) I went home and hear Rush going on and on about the exit polling showing a Kerry win.

8) Some of the conservative websites were melting down. "It's over!"

9) Drudge was going crazy with "exit polls" showing a BIG Kerry win, especially in OH which he had to have to win.

10) A little puzzled, I did my 4:00 flushing. Fully 90% of all Republicans had ALREADY VOTED . . . with three hours to go!

11) Remember, if our voters turned out, nothing Lurch could do. We had the #s.

12) I got back home, went on the boards and told people to cool down, that W would win OH and thereby the election. (He was up in FL, unlike 2000).

13) Sure enough, the exit polls were ALL wrong.

1) Looks like Trump KNEW what the coup plotters were plotting on the 6th, so he arrived an hour late to the stage, and talked longer than he intended, before he asked MAGA to walk peacefully down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol.

He also didn't walk WITH them as he promised.

The Democrats are at least two parties. The progressive wing of the party (which is by no means unified) and the finance wing of the party, which is also the party leadership.

1/

During the leadership race, the progressive wing was represented by @SenSanders and @SenWarren; the former wants to minimize the role of markets in our lives, the latter wants to redeem markets by regulating them. It's a distinction with a difference, but I donated to both.

2/

Both wings of the party have prominent representatives in Congress; Sandersism are most visibly associated with @AOC (whom I donated to) and Warrenism is embodied by @RepKatiePorter (likewise), who was also one of Warren's law school proteges.

3/

Porter is a force of nature. She is infamous - and celebrated - for her brutal, no-holds-barred questioning of both corporate and administration witnesses, using a white-board to pin them down and eviscerating any attempts at bullshittery.

4/

This isn't just about getting facts into the record (though, she is SO GOOD at getting facts into the record!), it's also about effecting change, like when she single-handedly cornered the CDC's chief into guaranteeing universal, free covid

Ok, it's high time to look at the REAL effects of Brexit. As the Tories implode & Labour sits on its hands, companies are executing contingency plans, shifting jobs & assets, slashing investments, or redomiciling (accounting exercise). Happening NOW, not in a fantasy future. 1/95

Barden Corporation is closing down its Plymouth factory after 51 years, putting 400 jobs at risk, as its parent company Schaeffler shifts production to various sites outside the UK due to Brexit.

8 health providers have warned of medicine shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit: "we do not believe that the current medicine supply plans will suffice, and we will have widespread shortages if we do not respond urgently."

Pfizer - $100 million on Brexit prep: "Pfizer’s preparations are well advanced to make the changes necessary to meet EU legal requirements after the U.K. is no longer a member state, especially in the regulatory, manufacturing and supply chain areas."

The Government has spent £4.2 billion pounds on Brexit preparations (£2.2 billion in previous Budgets, plus an additional £2 billion in the most recent Budget.)

Last talk about Securing Democracy at #enigma2021: @jackhcable speaking about "THE FULL STACK PROBLEM OF ELECTION

Let's imagine that elections use all the security measures security people have been advocating: risk-limiting audits, paper ballots, etc. Would people trust the elections more?

Jack would argue no. Most people don't understand this stuff and most of the claims people are making can't be disproven. And are massively bogus already.

Georgia did a full recount on paper ballots and it very much didn't stop people from doubting the election!

Are election security results in vain? The point of election security is to convince the loser they lost.

No! Have to focus on the whole stack, from election infrastructure to campaigns to people and mis/dis-informaton

One takeaway from the talk: the parts of the stack must work in tandem. Can't fight misinformation in a vacuum, but must build on other election security measures.