BC POLITICS
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BREAKING NEWS: Trump May Be Planning to Leave Country 24 Hours Before He Loses Immunity From Prosecution

"Prestwick Airport has been told to expect the arrival of a US military Boeing 757 aircraft which has been occasionally used by Trump, on January 19."

 (PS) With Scotland going into lockdown, I don't know if this is a realistic option for Trump. But every major media report we've gotten for the last 2 months has said that Trump is almost *preternaturally* obsessed with losing his immunity from criminal prosecution on January 20.
(PS2) I've repeatedly said that—based upon my experience with 2,000+ criminal defendants—I don't believe that Trump would flee the country unless he believed he was facing imminent arrest (which, to be very clear, I don't think he believes). But this story is real and intriguing.
(PS3) The proper course of action now is for media to find out if Trump will be leaving the country at the moment that he loses his immunity from criminal prosecution. That is *also* the proper frame for the story—given what we know to be Trump's state of mind and preoccupations.
(PS4) The other, concurrent news story to at least keep in mind here is that Trump is in a legal dispute with his neighbors in Florida over whether he can reside at Mar-A-Lago. It gives him the perfect excuse to say that he needs to spend a few months at his property in Scotland.
(PS5) To those wondering about the legal implications of Trump being in Scotland as or when a state indictment is issued against him—yes, of course Scotland has an extradition agreement with the United States. But getting Trump here would take much longer and forestall an arrest.
(PS6) I ask folks to please not misquote anything I have said in this thread. I am merely noting the confluence of several major media stories that require follow-up from American journalists. I make no prognostications here about the future whatsoever, nor do I aim to speculate.
(PS7) To those wondering why Trump would fly on a military plane on January 19 rather than January 20, of course Trump may lose access to certain military flights at noon on January 20. And—in theory—such a flight may be necessary to penetrate Scotland's new coronavirus lockdown.
(PS8) I'm an Occam's Razor analyst—so my assumption is that if indeed Trump is planning a trip to Scotland, it's simply so he can be out of the country as Biden is being feted as our new POTUS. I *don't* presume it is an extradition issue. But this story must be pursued by media.
(PS9) As for how a hypothetical extradition issue would be affected by the pandemic, Scotland being in lockdown, and global travel restrictions, I've no idea. As to whether Scotland could be a temporary waystation for Trump before he visits other (e.g. UAE) properties, who knows.
(PS10) The takeaway is that the possibility of state felony indictments against Trump in New York (James, Vance), Georgia (Willis) or elsewhere is real. And Trump's terror at this prospect is real and widely reported. So this story must be taken seriously. https://t.co/5nmXeVfV3W
(MAJOR UPDATE) THE DAILY BEAST: "According to a report from the Sunday Post, a lot of unusual US military activity has been recorded at one [Scottish] airport that just so happens to be very close to President Donald Trump’s flagship Scottish golf resort." https://t.co/AUVhnHcS5h
(NOTE) While likely no indictment will issue against Trump before January 19, state investigators could publicly request he not leave the country during the period he is under investigation. It's not binding—but would underscore him going to Scotland as a potentially dubious act.
(MORE) UK media is blowing up with this story. Here's more: https://t.co/BlyR3Z8APa
(MORE2) Per an INDEPENDENT (UK) source, the unusual U.S. military movements near Trump's property in Scotland are "usually a sign Trump is going to be somewhere [abroad] for an extended period." I don't know what "extended" means in this context, but it'll get a lot of attention.
(NOTE2) I've never been in the camp that thought MBS, MBZ, Erdogan, or Putin would shelter Trump against a federal case—angering Biden's administration is a no-go for all four. Letting Trump stay abroad while he domestically fights local prosecutors via his lawyers? Sure—why not.

More from Seth Abramson

Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
BREAKING NEWS: Top Trump Fundraiser/Former Trump-Appointed RNC Official Elliott Broidy Charged with Federal Crimes; Broidy Is a Key Figure in the Proof Series Books on Trump's Bribery and Collusion with Foreigners—and Looks to Be Charged With Such Conduct

PS/ Broidy has a *lot* to tell federal investigators about Trump's illicit dealings in the Middle East. As with pedophile/now-federal-convict George Nader—one of Broidy's chief co-conspirators—if the feds don't cut a deal with Broidy to get info on Trump, Barr has put the fix in.

PS2/ Today is a day I want to reach out with warmth and appreciation to all readers of the Proof series—who've known this indictment was coming for well over a year and are probably as excited as I am that a key Proof-series figure is being taken down *just* as he deserves to be.


PS3/ There are associations between Broidy and Trump's mistresses, Broidy and Prince's mercenary companies, Broidy and Michael Cohen, Broidy and George Nader's illicit work with Saudi Arabia and the UAE... this is a *big* get for federal investigators, if they *want* it to be.
TRUMP
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(1) Kushner is worth $324 million.
(2) Since 2016, Kushner has connived, with Saudi help, to force the Qataris (literally at a ship's gunpoint) to "loan" him $900 million.
(3) This is consistent with the Steele dossier.
(4) Kushner is unlikely to ever have to pay the "loan" back.


2/ So as you read about his tax practices, you should take from it that it's practices of this sort that ensure that he's able to extort money from foreign governments while Trump is POTUS without ever having to pay the money back. It also explains why he's in the Saudis' pocket.

3/ It's why the Saudis *say* he's in their pocket. It's why emoluments and federal bribery statutes matter. It's why Kushner was talking to the Saudi Crown Prince the day before the murdered Washington Post journalist was taken. It's why the Trump administration now does nothing.
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Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
MSNBC medical experts are underscoring that the course of treatment Trump is on is one you would *not* apply to someone who's doing well—but to someone who is struggling. Indeed, the experts say, it would be a *dangerous* treatment to give to a COVID-19 patient who is doing well.


NOTE/ The specific cause for concern here is the steroids; they're given to "severe and critical" hospitalized patients, and could harm patients who are not having breathing or immune-response issues. Keep in mind Trump's doctors claim they're discussing discharging him tomorrow.

NOTE2/ Tomorrow Trump's doctors will come up with a reason why he can't be discharged. Or they'll recall what was always the case—Trump can get basically the same treatment at the White House. I maintain the most likely scenario is that he demanded Walter Reed, then regretted it.

NOTE3/ Another possibility: Trump's White House doctors are basically jokes who just do whatever he tells them, and he wanted the real doctors at Walter Reed. Now that *real* doctors have set the course of treatment, Trump can go to the White House unless/until it becomes acute.
TRUMP
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
The Alabama duo—Mo Brooks and Tommy Tuberville—is one I suspect the FBI will want to investigate. At all stages of the insurrection it seems Trump was working with two Alabama Republicans to ensure the insurrection and the opposition to Biden's certification worked hand-in-glove.

(PS) Mo Brooks was the first Republican to say he'd challenge Biden's certification; was at Trump's rally talking about "kicking ass"; was allegedly conspiring with Akbar. His Alabama GOP delegation peer, Tuberville, was Trump's Senate man, contacted by Giuliani mid-insurrection.

(PS2) A lot of people will be asking about conversations that may have occurred between/amongst Trump, Giuliani, Brooks, Biggs, Gosar, Tuberville, and Akbar as to how the insurrection would be timed and how it would dovetail with Brooks'/Tuberville's actions inside the Capitol.

(PS3) We now know both Trump and Giuliani contacted Tuberville as the insurrection was happening to get him to artificially elongate his objections to Biden's win. These exhortations would've had the effect—and appear to have been intended to—give the insurrectionists more time.

(PS4) I say "appear to have been intended to" because we now have numerous major-media reports establishing that Trump was "excited," "pleased," and "enthusiastic" as the insurrection unfolded. This was the same period of time he tried to *elongate* GOP objections to Biden's win.
LEGAL
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
The Pardon Clause prohibits using the pardon power to obstruct impeachments. Trump repeatedly opined—rightly—that Mueller's probe could lead to a referral for possible impeachment (which it did). The pardons he just gave are the ones he dangled to obstruct Mueller. See the issue?

Those who say the pardon power is unreviewable aren't just wrong, they *know* they're wrong. The Pardon Clause makes explicit that Congress has standing and a cause of action if the power is used to obstruct an impeachment. So the power is definitionally reviewable by the courts.

Moreover, if the grant of a pardon is itself a high crime or misdemeanor, it creates an irresolvable conflict between the Impeachment Clause and the Pardon Clause that only a federal court can resolve—making a pardon reviewable in that scenario too. That's the situation we're in.

Moreover, if a pardon constituting an abuse of power is issued so late in a presidential term it can't be remedied via the normal means—impeachment—it becomes impermissibly non-justiciable, and thus immediately reviewable by a court. That also happens to be the current situation.

Moreover, if a pardon constitutes the actus reus in an ongoing crime, the pardon itself can't pardon the ongoing crime—and therefore becomes legally inert and inoperative, as the pardoned party can still be prosecuted. That also happens to be the situation we're in right now.
TRUMP

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George Pittman
@pittman_george
🚨 Thread: It’s Happening!

1. This may be the most important thread I’ve put together, yet. This is truly an exciting time for America. We are about to witness history in the making. It will, in fact, be Biblical. Not just for Us, but for the world.
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Adam Davidson
Adam Davidson
@adamdavidson
Dear Media, here is the clear truth:

Donald Trump is explicitly seeking to turn America into a white Ethnostate.

He is following an openly racist plan, crafted by open racists.

If you report this story any other way you are not reporting the facts or being objective.

1/

If you think this is an extreme position or an opinion, you haven't read enough about the white nationalist movement, Stephen Miller, Bannon, Sessions, etc.

Eliminating birthright citizenship is a central plank in a well-articulated, coherent movement to make America whiter.
2/

Blaming Soros is a central tool. It is part of a (crazy, wrong, but internally coherent) theory of the case:
- By nature, people can only form society with their closer kin.
- Yadda Yadda (the arguments are terrible) White people have certain values that non-whites don't.

3/

(continuing the white power explanation)

- All whites, by nature, would know they only want a white society.

- An outside group--hint, it's the Jews!--is tricking them into going against their nature (white nationalists think they know a lot about core human nature).

4/

(continuing views I hate to explain them)

- There is an existential race to save America. By 2046, it will become majority minority and then (in this fevered nonsensical view) there will be a civil war because unlike people can't form stable societies.

5/
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Tierney
Tierney
@MaggiePeggy123
1) Looks like Trump KNEW what the coup plotters were plotting on the 6th, so he arrived an hour late to the stage, and talked longer than he intended, before he asked MAGA to walk peacefully down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol.

He also didn't walk WITH them as he promised.
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Mangy Jay
Mangy Jay
@magi_jay
A central tension in our politics is this we have 1 political party that cares about upholding democracy, whereas the other party's aims can only be achieved thru undermining democracy. This is coupled w/ the fact that 1 party cares about people's well-being & the other does not

These 2 facts lead to a situation in which, in order to both uphold democracy & advance well-being, 1 party is dedicated to a functional gov't & the other party is well-served by a dysfunctional government. Such dysfunction is both instrumental & ideological (anti-government)

And then, of course, we have gerrymandering + a cap on the House of reps, 2 Senators per state, & the electoral college. A set of circumstances that gives massively disproportionate power to the anti-democracy & anti-well-being party.

Taken together, the structural issues in our electoral system, deep ideological divides about government/democracy, & the differential investment in advancing citizens' well-being does leave Democrats at a perpetual disadvantage.

A firefighter who is looking at a burning house & trying to decide whether to concentrate on stopping the fire from spreading or to save a child at the expense of a grandmother is facing a fundamentally different set of choices than the person who lit the fire in the first place
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Heidi Li Feldman
Heidi Li Feldman
@HeidiLiFeldman
It takes guts to truly face hard truths. But facing them is the only way to protect oneself going forward. This is why I keep reminding people that the Republican Party is beyond repair. 1/

The Republican Party’s internal structures, at the state and federal level, are dominated by people actively opposed to democratic pluralism, rule of law, and U.S. constitutionalism. 2/

Once a political party refuses to drop its support for a leader, in this case Donald Trump, who constantly and consistently betrayed the country throughout his time in office that party cannot be salvaged as a player in U.S. constitutional democracy. 3/

Everybody else, from individual rank and file Democrats to President Joe Biden, must radically overhaul how they deal with people who do not disaffiliate from the Republican Party. 4/

Anybody who remains a Republican at this point must be presumed to be an enemy of U.S. constitutionalism, rather than as somebody with right wing policy views. 5/
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Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

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Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

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