If you listen to the pundits, you’d think that the @HouseGOP did very well during the 2020 elections.
That’s not quite true.
Here’s what actually happened.
Florida
(Lost 2 seats in 2018, gained 2 seats in 2020)
Iowa
(Lost 2 seats in 2018, gained 2 seats in 2020)
(Lost 1 seat in 2018, gained 1 seat in 2020)
Oklahoma
(Lost 1 seat in 2018, gained 1 seat in 2020)
South Carolina
(Lost 1 seat in 2018, gained 1 seat in 2020)
More from TheValuesVoter
The more whiny Trump cries, whines and lies about the election, the more I’ll show research that shows that he lost and exactly why he lost.
Note to Trump supporters asking “why do you keep bringing him up?” Easy answer: he won’t shut his lying pie hole.
This is HOW he lost.
And this is HOW he lost.
He lost a lot of the white voters, college educated voters and independents who supported him in 2016.
In 2016, Donald Trump won Independents in every one of the six states that he flipped from blue to red.
In 2020, Donald Trump lost Independents in every one of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue.
Is it somehow strange that Trump lost the election? No. It would have been much stranger had Trump managed to win the election.
No one as consistently unpopular as him has ever been re-elected. Like ever.
Note to Trump supporters asking “why do you keep bringing him up?” Easy answer: he won’t shut his lying pie hole.
This is HOW he lost.
Okay, so here is a more complete rundown of how the last three Presidential Elections went down. And some more mythbusting of Trump's lies about the 2020 Election. https://t.co/3M9c79wHop pic.twitter.com/eRNRKQZzzB
— TheValuesVoter (@TheValuesVoter) May 1, 2021
And this is HOW he lost.
He lost a lot of the white voters, college educated voters and independents who supported him in 2016.
So here, in charts and tables, are the exit polls for the five states that flipped in the 2020 election.
— TheValuesVoter (@TheValuesVoter) May 15, 2021
Arizona - the trend of the state (clearly trending toward the Dems after 2012) and the groups Trump improved/declined with between 2016, when he won and 2020, when he lost. pic.twitter.com/ZxUXyui83R
In 2016, Donald Trump won Independents in every one of the six states that he flipped from blue to red.
In 2020, Donald Trump lost Independents in every one of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue.
Is it somehow strange that Trump lost the election? No. It would have been much stranger had Trump managed to win the election.
No one as consistently unpopular as him has ever been re-elected. Like ever.
More from Politics
My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."
Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016." https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh
"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."
Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”
My conclusion:
Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016." https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh
"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."
Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”
My conclusion:
"3 million people are estimated not to have official photo ID, with ethnic minorities more at risk". They will "have to contact their council to confirm their ID if they want to vote"
This is shameful legislation, that does nothing to tackle the problems with UK elections.THREAD
There is no evidence in-person voter fraud is a problem, and it wd be near-impossible to organise on an effective scale. Campaign finance violations, digital disinformation & manipulation of postal voting are bigger issues, but these are crimes of the powerful, not the powerless.
In a democracy, anything that makes it harder to vote - in particular, anything that disadvantages one group of voters - should face an extremely high bar. Compulsory voter ID takes a hammer to 3 million legitimate voters (disproportionately poor & BAME) to crack an imaginary nut
If the government is concerned about the purity of elections, it should reflect on its own conduct. In 2019 it circulated doctored news footage of an opponent, disguised its twitter feed as a fake fact-checking site, and ran adverts so dishonest that even Facebook took them down.
Britain's electoral law largely predates the internet. There is little serious regulation of online campaigning or the cash that pays for it. That allows unscrupulous campaigners to ignore much of the legal framework erected since the C19th to guard against electoral misconduct.
This is shameful legislation, that does nothing to tackle the problems with UK elections.THREAD
Millions of people do not have photo ID. By forcing through mandatory voter-ID the government risk disenfranchising millions of legitimate voters. https://t.co/y0Upzof2FI
— Electoral Reform Society (@electoralreform) February 17, 2021
There is no evidence in-person voter fraud is a problem, and it wd be near-impossible to organise on an effective scale. Campaign finance violations, digital disinformation & manipulation of postal voting are bigger issues, but these are crimes of the powerful, not the powerless.
In a democracy, anything that makes it harder to vote - in particular, anything that disadvantages one group of voters - should face an extremely high bar. Compulsory voter ID takes a hammer to 3 million legitimate voters (disproportionately poor & BAME) to crack an imaginary nut
If the government is concerned about the purity of elections, it should reflect on its own conduct. In 2019 it circulated doctored news footage of an opponent, disguised its twitter feed as a fake fact-checking site, and ran adverts so dishonest that even Facebook took them down.
Britain's electoral law largely predates the internet. There is little serious regulation of online campaigning or the cash that pays for it. That allows unscrupulous campaigners to ignore much of the legal framework erected since the C19th to guard against electoral misconduct.
