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Since Jan 2021, Nifty traded t+1 ( for Eg say Tuesday) in the range predicted as per VIX closing on t( for Eg say Monday) , 95 out of 112 trading days. Ie, 85% times. This is an important info for option sellers.

Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 6th Jan Expiry:

To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:
1. Aggressive Traders (1.85%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.2%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.75%)

1. Technicals

Let's start with technicals. We'll look at:

• Weekly charts
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
• 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

• The past 2 weeks indicate that buyers have entered and are trying to lift the market up.

• 34000 was a strong support earlier too, this should hold for this week at least.

2. Daily:

• If we open flat or gap up on Monday I am expecting this to play out.
(See picture)

• If gap down happens, then the traders who are long would be in a slight panic and we need to observe the price action again after a couple of days for a broader view.

BENEFITS OF OPTION SELLING

Most of the successful traders here are option sellers.

Ever wondered why?

Why we have chosen option selling?

How to decide what strategies to use?

THIS IS THE ONLY THREAD YOU'LL EVER NEED!

Find out below

1: Theta decay

The biggest reason and one of the prime reasons is the theta decay.

Option sellers always have an advantage because the as time passes, the option premium falls even if the underlying instrument doesn't move.

2: Being wrong and still making money.

We as option sellers can be wrong with our market view and still end up making money because of the power of theta decay and adjustments to some extent,

3:Playing directional view

Option selling also enables us to take a directional view. Infact, directional view along with theta decay makes it a solid combination.

Debit spreads and credit spreads works great for a directional view.

4: Playing Neutral view

We can make money in option selling even if the market doesn't move as the otm options will go to 0 with the help of theta decay. It's the most fascinating thing.

Before paying a hefty amount to learn options trading have a look at this here is the small of Compilation of Options trading learning Series recorded by @vivbajaj which may help you to shorten your learning curve
Caution: Compilation of series is for Serious learners only.

Trading करने से पहले ये करना जरूरी है। by

Futures और Options से बड़ा पैसा कमाने का सही तरीका Mitesh Patel का |
by

Options Calendar Trading करने का अनोखा तरीका by

Profitable Options Trading using CPR Pivot System by

volume का फ़ंडा 😇😊

In NSE, 99.6% of the trading is done in derivatives.

But most of those traders don't know how to lower costs and increase returns.

Here's a breakdown on Options Synthetics: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

To become a very good trader, we need a strong understanding of options and Futures with their payoff graphs.

Most people have no clarity regarding synthetics & are just too confused.

Let's begin understanding synthetics & how they can help us trade with a clear understanding!

Synthetics are formed by the mixture/combinations of any two of the following three.

1. Calls
2. Puts
3. Futures/Stocks

You don't even need to touch futures/stocks. Whatever kind of payoff graph you want, you can get via options only.

Fut buy + Put buy= Call buy
Ft buy + Call sell = Put sell
Ft sell + Call buy = Put Buy
Ft sell + Put sell = Call sell

Ft buy = Call Buy + Put Sell
Fut sell = Put Buy + Call Sell

Know this very well as this is a must to know.

There are four advantages to trade via synthetics.

Also, we'll look at 3 problems and 4 myths about strategies.

Let's begin, by looking at the advantages:

WHAT IS OPEN INTEREST, HOW TO ANALYZE IT AND DOES IT WORK?

In the thread I'll explain everything about Open interest and also all the tools used to analyze it and my personal opinion.

THIS IS THE ONLY THREAD YOU'LL EVER NEED ON OPEN INTEREST.

1: What is Oi?

Support if Mr A buys 10 lots of 17000ce in Nifty and Mr B sells 10 lots of call in Nifty then the total Oi on 17000 strike price will be 10.

So Oi is basically the number of outstanding contracts which are not squared off.

2: What is Oi used for?

Oi is only used to determine support and resistance on a particular strike price.

For eg: Nifty 16000pe has the highest Oi and 16200pe has to highest Oi.

So 16000 and 16200 level can be considered as good supports.

In the same way, 16500 ce has highest Oi and it can be considered as a resistance.

3: But why?

Highest Oi at 16500ce indicates that highest number of people have sold it BUT it also means that highest number of people have Bought it!

If 16500 acts as resistance, the option will go to 0 and all the buyers will lose money.

Most of the traders on Twitter are non-directional traders.

Only a few trade on one side according to direction.

Here are 9 benefits of directional trading you cannot miss:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Higher Returns

Playing as per the trend usually gets you more conviction in your trades.

Which then leads to higher returns as you trade with the increased confidence.

Rather than selling 30-30 on each side, for eg, can just sell 90-100 on one side and make more.

2/ Easy management

It is easier to manage directional trades according to stop loss or targets based on patterns.

Don't need additional factors to think of for eg, premiums, distance from the spot, greeks, etc.

3. Avoid adjustments constantly

Non-directional option sellers have to constantly do adjustments to their trades.

Many times their original view is right but then the adjustments go wrong.

To combat these adjustments, they make more adjustments that unnecessarily use margins.

4. Improves price action analysis

You cannot be a good directional trader without having a very good grip on price action analysis.

Constantly using the price to make trades rather than playing for theta leads you to better understand price action.

How to improve Expiry Trading as a Seller and a buyer?

Learning about different concepts, techniques, and data points does this rapidly.

Here are 10 of the best videos on expiry trading:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1. How to develop a framework to trade in ATM strikes on expiry day? Subhasish Pani on @vivbajaj Sir's channel.

One of call or put at ATM is going to go to zero.

Whichever is moving rapidly has a higher probability of going ATM/ITM. Sell the slower

2. How to trade a big gap up on expiry day?

If market bias is bullish and a gap up happens, it comes for selling.

Can buy puts at the breakout of an inside candle as the market has a good probability of at least heading towards the previous day's

3. How to trade in Bank Nifty if it has already moves 160 points from its high to low by 11:30? @ThetaGainers

Sell near otms with double stop loss.

Avoid if stuck in a very small range.

Get out of both by

4. Subhasish Pani explains how to play expiry when Nifty and Bank Nifty both are behaving differently.

By the way, his zero to hero logics are:
1. Big candles are supports/resistances
2. Gaps act as S/R
3. Closing price acts as

Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 7th July Expiry:

You'll learn multi-timeframe technical analysis for the current week from this thread.

Also, there are 3 strategies one may deploy according to their risk appetite:

1. Aggressive Traders (1.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (0.93%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.6%)

1. Technicals

Let's start with the technicals. We'll look at:

• Weekly charts
• Daily charts
• Hourly/60 min charts
• 15 min charts

1. Weekly-

• The past 2 weeks indicate buyers have entered and are trying to lift the market up.

• These buyers would be under stress if the last week's low of 33080 breaks on the downside.

• Till that low doesn't break, those buyers are going to be in control.

2. Daily:

• If we get a daily close above the 34150 level, a higher high (HH) will be formed, and I would be very bullish on the markets.

• Friday's candle is a big green candle, and if it's low breaks then I would be bearish.

• There is no clear and obvious pattern yet.