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A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/

With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/

Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/

Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.

4/

Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.

There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.

5/

If you use it right, Iron Fly is the most solid risk-defined strategy in trading.

But most people don't know how to adjust the strategy when it goes wrong.

Here are 7 adjustments you can do to lower risk and increase profitability: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

0/ Who is this for?

This will greatly benefit people who freeze when it comes to managing their trades and keep booking losses.

Some trade with too much fear as well when things go wrong.

Knowing these adjustments will give you the confidence to try to manage your trades.

Most of them are to lower risk on the side the market is going in.

Some adjustments even increase the profit potential and probabilities of the trade being in profit on expiry.

Let's begin by having a look at the adjustments.

Here is the adjustment number 1 below.

1/ Don't do anything till your breakeven arrives

One reason these strategies go wrong far too quickly is due to adjusting them too frequently.

You can escape most adjustments if you simply wait for the market to arrive at your breakeven.

This will work well in monthly options.

2/ Remove Risk from Untested Side

If you've taken an iron fly and the market has gone up you can shift your put buy upwards and lock the downside risk to potentially zero.

This way you've secured one side and just need to manage the bleeding side.

volume का फ़ंडा 😇😊

WHAT IS OPEN INTEREST, HOW TO ANALYZE IT AND DOES IT WORK?

In the thread I'll explain everything about Open interest and also all the tools used to analyze it and my personal opinion.

THIS IS THE ONLY THREAD YOU'LL EVER NEED ON OPEN INTEREST.

1: What is Oi?

Support if Mr A buys 10 lots of 17000ce in Nifty and Mr B sells 10 lots of call in Nifty then the total Oi on 17000 strike price will be 10.

So Oi is basically the number of outstanding contracts which are not squared off.

2: What is Oi used for?

Oi is only used to determine support and resistance on a particular strike price.

For eg: Nifty 16000pe has the highest Oi and 16200pe has to highest Oi.

So 16000 and 16200 level can be considered as good supports.

In the same way, 16500 ce has highest Oi and it can be considered as a resistance.

3: But why?

Highest Oi at 16500ce indicates that highest number of people have sold it BUT it also means that highest number of people have Bought it!

If 16500 acts as resistance, the option will go to 0 and all the buyers will lose money.