BC MARKET CYCLE

Saved by @AnmolNarula11

Not dead...yet.
@passivefool 3 years, 10 months ago 545 views

Save to PDF Share See On Twitter

Lot of startups who are yet to make profits are filing for IPOs globally. I'm reading the filings and the language is terrible. A few tips on how to do it right.

Here are the right terms to use instead of the current antiquated language.

We are making losses.

"We've been consistently making negative profits and growing year on year."

We don't yet have a business model.

"We're innovation leaders in several fast growing market segments"

Losses will increase for the foreseeable future.

"Blockchain"

EBITDA is negative

"Our future adjusted EBITDA margin is consistently positive"

We Work got it right with their Community adjusted EBITDA

Revenues aren't growing

"We think once Elon reaches Mars the, TAM will double and we'll be a near monopoly in Mars"

Too much competition, commoditized product

"We don't believe in nonsense like revenues or profitabilty. This is our competitive moat"

Business model may not sustainable

"Blockchain"

Revenue visibility is uncertain

"If you discount 2200 earnings, out valuations factor all uncertainties offering investors the best value in the sector"

https://t.co/ZZmvVF27VB

Product offerings aren't differentiated

"We use AI & ML for everything, including our employee ID cards"
— Not dead...yet. (@passivefool) July 20, 2021

Business may not survive with more capital

"We will continuously offer exposure to innovative business models based on AI, ML, Blockchain to investors by trapping the markets will follow on innovating stock offerings"

Burn is high

"We continuously invest at the cutting edge of humanity to unlock new frontiers"

Blockchain

More from Not dead...yet.

Sir Metafool
@passivefool

Has anyone seen "you are getting mutual fund units at discount" and "India growth story" tweets?

This is a bit worrying.

#ESG compliant verbal ...
@passivefool

Holy shit. 8000 crores raised IN NFOs in a month. Look at the schemes, all pointless garbage!

https://t.co/jZoancOqqa

If you look closely, 4 out of the 6 top NFOs in terms of money raised are from bank owned NFOs. These AMCs are notoriously skilled at selling garbage funds through their banking channels. They've turned mis-selling into an art. They're are Picasso's of mis-selling

One would be excused for thinking these are intent based allocations by investors which isn't the case. These funds would've been sold mis-sold by any way possible. Bank RMs are incentivized to do so.

Otherwise, in a country where people don't understand a simple mutual funds, expecting people to understand a worthless and pointless ESG fund a d then allocating 1500 crores is a mega stretch. ICICI Pru too had raised 1000+cr for its ESG fund.

The fact that these new funds are raising so much money to me is a negative. In a time like this, where will retail investors find fresh money to allocate? Which means they must doing stupid things like selling other funds.

Advertisement

$Artificially intelligent fool \U0001f9e0$

Artificially intellige...
@passivefool

It's a beautiful Saturday on this Corona riddled planet. It's a good day to do the following:

1. Open your account statement and find out how much commissions you are paying. You'd be paying anywhere between 0.7% to 1.3% extra over direct plans.

1.5 You can download your statement on CAMS, KARVY, NSDL etc.

2. If you are one of those Robinhood Traders and you started mistakenly investing in mutual funds instead of trading mutual funds, commissions can kill you! A simple 1% difference in commissions can add over 10-15 years. This comparison has been done to death but once more.

3. Figure of if whoever sold you these things, be if your advisor or distributor are providing value equal those commissions or not. This is an incredibly hard thing to figure. You need to do deep research, understand money yourself and then ask your advisor/distributors

3.5 This is an incredibly hard thing to figure. You need to do deep research, understand money yourself and then ask your advisor/distributors the right questions. Beware these guys are prone to bullshitting. So, interrogate them as a cop would a criminal.

ESG compliant gyani
@passivefool

A nobody cares thread.

Nobody cares about the things that matter - getting investors in, helping new distributors advisors, making things (Slightly) easier for investors, honest mis-selling etc.

Nobody cares about direct plans of mutual funds

Nobody cares about about mutual funds either

Very few care about mutual funds. Just 2.1 crore unique investors. If you probably take out HNIs/institutions in this, that's maybe 20-30%, what's left are the common gareeb folks.

Nobody cares about direct equity investing either.

Next time when someone says, people are moving away from mutual funds to direct equities, show them this and punch them in the throat.

Only 1.5 cr active demat accounts. If you remove duplicates, maybe 60% of this?

Nobody cares because very few people have money to care either?

Sir Metafool
@passivefool

More from Market cycle

Shankar Sharma
@1shankarsharma

One oft- used , but rather silly, quote used by many is "Time in Mkt is more important than Timing the Mkt".
In reality, Time in the Market is profitable ONLY when your ( broad sector & theme) Timing of the Market right.

You need both. Period.

Omar Abdel-Maged
@oabdelmaged1

I thought this was a great quote from Charlie Munger: investors chasing the latest cyclical trend often forget that "the old cyclicality is going to come back"

(From @williamgreen72's "Richer, Wiser, Happier" book)

Advertisement

ContrarianEPS
@contrarianEPS

https://t.co/POf90ZS0Zf

if John Templeton were Indian:

\u201cBull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on Motilal Oswal buy call.\u201d (broker mosl)
— ContrarianEPS (@contrarianEPS) May 3, 2019

Rohit Chauhan
@rohitchauhan

All stocks are cyclical

The question is only of duration

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

18-19% ROE wale being bought by institutions at anywhere b/w 12 and 20x price to sales. Not many liked this space in 2013. Not many hate it today. Social validation in investing is a big curse ...

Ghor ChemYug 😆

#DeepakNitrite valuation is most attractive in the space...

growth will be most explosive in the space... pic.twitter.com/8VYdWwFApY
— jeevan patwa (@jeevanpatwa) June 30, 2021

You May Also Like

Chris Herd
@chris_herd

The 2020s will be known as the Remote Work decade

A few predictions of what is likely to emerge

[ a thread ] 💻🏠🌍

🏦Third Space: Office and Working from Home will be joined by somewhere close by that a number of people will use

Supermarkets or local bank branches should emerge as a convenient ubiquitous location option – if they are smart

⏰Asynchronous Work: Offices are instantaneous gratification distraction factories where synchronous work makes it impossible to get stuff done

Tools that enable asynchronous work are the most important thing globally remote teams need. A lot of startups will try to tackle this

⚽️Hobbie Renaissance: Remote working will lead to a rise in people participating in hobbies and activities which link them to people in their local community

This will lead to deeper, more meaningful relationships which overcome societal issues of loneliness and issolation

🚜Rural Living: World-class people will move to smaller cities, have a lower cost of living & higher quality of life

These regions must innovate quickly to attract that wealth. Better schools, faster internet connections are a must

Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal

Boss is always Boss @Mitesh_Engr

Mitesh Sir's FUTURES BREAKOUT TRADES 101:

• How to pick stocks at right time?
• What to look for?
• Importance of BO post consolidation
• How to manage SL
• How to get huge profits
• Multiple Examples

In collaboration with @niki_poojary

Importance of Trading only BO or BD stocks by @Mitesh_Engr Sir: 👇

•Two questions to always ask:

~Why stock is going up/down and when?
~ Who is behind big up/down and when?

• Trade only stocks with Momentum
• Instant results
• Small SL or huge profits

Sir's take on how to Trade: 👇

• Observe fight between buyer & seller
• Position will be created within first 3 hours
• Operators will win
• Just find BO or BD
• Look for huge volume support
• Give company to operators
• ATP importance explained

How to take trade in Breakout/Breakdown stocks by @Mitesh_Engr Sir: 👇

• Check Support & Resistance
• Wait for 2-3 months consolidation
• Surge in volumes
• Trade on 3 min charts
• Small SL
• Keep trailing
• Always pyramid in profit

When and Why to Pyramid? By @Mitesh_Engr Sir

• Adding to winning positions
• Signals of continued strength
• Potentially large profits
• An Example of pyramiding in one of his trades

Advertisement

The Light - Truthpaper
@LightTruthpaper

Latest update from @TheBernician

1/19

Hancock, Whitty, Vallance & Ferguson Stand Accused of Pandemic Fraud.

After yet more damning evidence arose last week, further additions had to be made to the court papers, which we are now aiming to lay in the coming week.

2/19

The four defendants will be Matt Hancock, Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance and Neil Ferguson, each of whom has inextricable and ultimately incriminating connections with Bill Gates and Big Pharma.

3/19

As well as three counts of fraud by false representation and seven counts of fraud by non-disclosure, under sections 2 and 3 of the Fraud Act 2006, we can now also prove that the entire worldwide scamdemic originated on these shores.

4/19

In fact, we can show that, without the dishonest statements and non-disclosures of the four defendants we are initially proceeding against, COVID-1984 would not have transpired.

5/19

Furthermore, the 1st defendant, Matt Hancock, cannot rely upon the defence of Parliamentary Privilege, on the ground that none of the evidence relied upon by the prosecution is capable of preventing parliamentarians from carrying out their lawful business in Parliament.

Zen Black
@z3nblack

1/ Thread: "A Silicon Valley Ponzi Scheme"

Thanks to @chamath for laying this out in Social Capital's 2018 annual letter.

I've always appreciated his outspokenness.

2/ The hardest thing for most startups today is the path to market: first finding product-market fit & a way to reach customers, then building a ruthless machine to acquire, monetize & retain them.

3/ Because of this, when the VC industry invests capital into fast growing startups today, the plurality (if not majority) of invested capital will go into user acquisition and ad spending, for better or worse— usually worse.

4/ Todays massive venture-backed advertising, sales, and user acquisition playbook has morphed into one that champions growth at any cost.

This is creating a big bill that will soon come due...

5/ Ad impressions and click-throughs are bid up to outrageous prices by startups flush with venture money, and prospective users demand more and more subsidized products to gain their initial attention.

$Joey Tawadrous \U0001f1ee\U0001f1ea$

Joey Tawadrous 🇮🇪...
@joeytawadrous

1) Core attributes of a promising founder worth following:
- Progress/trajectory over time
- How well they lead a team &
- Make the vision happen
- Most impressed when someone is way ahead of where you thought they would be when you check up/see them a few months later.

2) Indie Makers have such a benefit of being small, fast, nimble workers in comparison to big companies.

We can easily pivot and vastly change a project of ours. We can change as we learn more about our users.

Big companies can take months/years for even the smallest of pivots.

3) Before you find a product market you can pivot your project as many times as necessary until you find something that works.

Then you only have one thing to do: scale, scale, scale.

4) Be obsessed with the little details.
- listen to every single person who uses your product
- reply to every single person who emails you about your product
- ask them what they like and do not like
- iterate your product, make changes, pivot if necessary

5) Paul Graham's (@paulg) name came up with a feeling of great admiration! Naturally! It was Paul who said:

In the early stages of a company just;
- write code
- talk/sell to customers to stress test your idea

Nothing else.