should probably identify some things that I feel are plausible risks right now

i dont have any idea how large these risks are

going to focus on first order risks because most of them have tons of knock-on effects

1. per a now-deleted thread, anything happening to supreme court justices
2. right wingers doing something really stupid
3. democrats massively overreaching and causing a hostile rupture with establishment republicans
4. Congressional Republicans doing something really stupid as a body. I specifically mean House republicans, I think it is unlikely the Senators will be stupid
just generally the short term risk is anything that results in dramatic political escalation

country is a tinderbox after Wednesday

trump getting media purged is very bad for the medium to long term but i am personally most worried about the next month
(2) and (3) seem like the most likely things to happen.

i have more trust in the bulk of the senate and the biden admin to keep their heads. anything with the court is a tail risk. house members seem relatively powerless in practice.
some stabilizing factors:

1. the business establishment is acting independently and forcefully to exert political pressure for stability. this is potentially destabilizing in the longer term but predominantly helpful in the short term
2. the supreme court will probably perform admirably if needed, and will probably given the current makeup at least mitigate if not wholly overturn some of the excesses of democrats that are likely to ensue.

. . . eventually
3. a significant portion of the republican establishment just fucking hates trump, and deeply resents being driven out of the capitol by a mob
continuing this thought and making it explicit, this probably reduces their sense of loyal in some sense to their party and redirects it toward institutions

i am genuinely grateful for mcconnell and pence holding the offices they do
4. none of the republican state legislatures or governors (of which I believe they are the majority) did anything obviously stupid on Wednesday, and they seem unlikely to do so
5. the military doesnt want any part of this shit and its officers especially at the higher ranks seem to hate trump

this is important because in spite of mixed views in lower ranks and among the enlisted it is very difficult to coordinate below the colonelcy
idk this is where my head is. please do not take this as gospel, God knows things are hard to predict even in good times and I am a humble speculator

overall i think we are likely to muddle through

im gonna lose again in AV and go to bed

gn, pls remember to maintain sangfroid

More from Legal

More severe police injuries and deaths on that one day of rampaging Trumpers than in five years of Anti-Police protests.


You can tell a lot about the stance of a angry crowd by whether they come with shields or pitchforks.

If people protesting police brutality for years had wanted to use their large numbers to attack, maim and kill police, they damn well could have.

But they came to resist police.

Which is completely different.

Why did the police suffer more at the hands of those who claimed to support them and waved their flags than at the hands of those who think they should be defunded or abolished?

Because one group is literally arguing for human dignity and the other glorifies violence.

The people who uncritically support police brutality are those who believe that instrumental violence should be a standard tool in response to those standing opposed to you.

Once you accept that... WHO is standing opposed to you doesn't matter much.
Without jumping to conclusions, this is a strange coincident. Is someone trying to kill two birds with one stone?


If you don't get caught up in the noise of the media, you'll notice a few more things. The far-right Oath Keepers has been patrolling major cities with heavy weapons for weeks. They were present in numbers at the Capitol, but without weapons.


https://t.co/t7M1svIIMe


You find photos of the arrested vandals but strangely enough not of the one 70-year-old who allegedly had a truck full of weapons. And at least I couldn't find an image of that truck. But the old man was apparently very talkative to the police.


The most questionable aspect, however, is the FBI's search for a person who was apparently caught on a surveillance camera the previous night.
At that time, it was possible to predict a mass gathering, but not the riot.

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हिमालय पर्वत की एक बड़ी पवित्र गुफा थी।उस गुफा के निकट ही गंगा जी बहती थी।एक बार देवर्षि नारद विचरण करते हुए वहां आ पहुंचे।वह परम पवित्र गुफा नारद जी को अत्यंत सुहावनी लगी।वहां का मनोरम प्राकृतिक दृश्य,पर्वत,नदी और वन देख उनके हृदय में श्रीहरि विष्णु की भक्ति अत्यंत बलवती हो उठी।


और देवर्षि नारद वहीं बैठकर तपस्या में लीन हो गए।इन्द्र नारद की तपस्या से घबरा गए।उन्हें हमेशा की तरह अपना सिंहासन व स्वर्ग खोने का डर सताने लगा।इसलिए इन्द्र ने नारद की तपस्या भंग करने के लिए कामदेव को उनके पास भेज दिया।वहां पहुंच कामदेव ने अपनी माया से वसंतऋतु को उत्पन्न कर दिया।


पेड़ और पौधों पर रंग बिरंगे फूल खिल गए और कोयलें कूकने लगी,पक्षी चहकने लगे।शीतल,मंद,सुगंधित और सुहावनी हवा चलने लगी।रंभा आदि अप्सराएं नाचने लगीं ।किन्तु कामदेव की किसी भी माया का नारद पे कोई प्रभाव नहीं पड़ा।तब कामदेव को डर सताने लगा कि कहीं नारद क्रोध में आकर मुझे श्राप न देदें।

जैसे ही नारद ने अपनी आंखें खोली, उसी क्षण कामदेव ने उनसे क्षमा मांगी।नारद मुनि को तनिक भी क्रोध नहीं आया और उन्होने शीघ्र ही कामदेव को क्षमा कर दिया।कामदेव प्रसन्न होकर वहां से चले गए।कामदेव के चले जाने पर देवर्षि के मन में अहंकार आ गया कि मैने कामदेव को हरा दिया।

नारद फिर कैलाश जा पहुंचे और शिवजी को अपनी विजयगाथा सुनाई।शिव समझ गए कि नारद अहंकारी हो गए हैं और अगर ये बात विष्णु जी जान गए तो नारद के लिए अच्छा नहीं होगा।ये सोचकर शिवजी ने नारद को भगवन विष्णु को ये बात बताने के लीए मना किया। परंतु नारद जी को ये बात उचित नहीं लगी।