should probably identify some things that I feel are plausible risks right now
i dont have any idea how large these risks are
going to focus on first order risks because most of them have tons of knock-on effects
I mean... all my friends who prepared for a global pandemic and were stockpiling masks in February are freaking out about this Trump ban thing so it seems safe to ignore them since they are never right about anything.
— PoliMath (@politicalmath) January 10, 2021
country is a tinderbox after Wednesday
trump getting media purged is very bad for the medium to long term but i am personally most worried about the next month
i have more trust in the bulk of the senate and the biden admin to keep their heads. anything with the court is a tail risk. house members seem relatively powerless in practice.
1. the business establishment is acting independently and forcefully to exert political pressure for stability. this is potentially destabilizing in the longer term but predominantly helpful in the short term
. . . eventually
i am genuinely grateful for mcconnell and pence holding the offices they do
More from Legal
Nearly 140 officers were injured during pro-Trump extremists' Capitol siege \u2014 including officers who sustained brain injuries, smashed spinal discs, one who'll likely lose an eye, and another stabbed with a metal fence stake, the Capitol Police union said.https://t.co/D9jFSkKtJm
— NPR (@NPR) January 28, 2021
You can tell a lot about the stance of a angry crowd by whether they come with shields or pitchforks.
If people protesting police brutality for years had wanted to use their large numbers to attack, maim and kill police, they damn well could have.
But they came to resist police.
Which is completely different.
Why did the police suffer more at the hands of those who claimed to support them and waved their flags than at the hands of those who think they should be defunded or abolished?
Because one group is literally arguing for human dignity and the other glorifies violence.
The people who uncritically support police brutality are those who believe that instrumental violence should be a standard tool in response to those standing opposed to you.
Once you accept that... WHO is standing opposed to you doesn't matter much.
If you want to know what really went on with last week's DC Protests, look at the role of the FBI and federal informants involved in the event.
— Patrick Henningsen (@21WIRE) January 11, 2021
This is fundamental, especially regarding the visible presence of masked provocateurs
Watch as more information emerges.
If you don't get caught up in the noise of the media, you'll notice a few more things. The far-right Oath Keepers has been patrolling major cities with heavy weapons for weeks. They were present in numbers at the Capitol, but without weapons.
https://t.co/t7M1svIIMe
You find photos of the arrested vandals but strangely enough not of the one 70-year-old who allegedly had a truck full of weapons. And at least I couldn't find an image of that truck. But the old man was apparently very talkative to the police.
The most questionable aspect, however, is the FBI's search for a person who was apparently caught on a surveillance camera the previous night.
At that time, it was possible to predict a mass gathering, but not the riot.