1/Alright, gather round, friends, and let me tell you the story of 1930s Japan, and how it's a cautionary tale for 2020s

2/Everyone knows that Japan became militarist, fascist, and (even more) expansionist in the 30s.

But what few people know is that this followed 6 years of coup attempts by EVEN MORE militarist/fascist/expansionist lunatics.

So let's review that history.
3/The first coup attempt was the March Incident in 1931.

Basically, some right-wing army officers planned to stage a riot to provoke martial law, and install a military dictator.

It failed when they couldn't get enough people to riot.
4/The coup plotters weren't really punished, so they just tried again a few months later. Some of their co-conspirators ratted them out and they failed again.

But AGAIN THEY WEREN'T PUNISHED! People defended them, saying they were simply too patriotic. 🤡
5/These coup plotters wanted the following:

1. A military dictator
2. Aggressive military action against Japan's rivals (i.e. every other country)
3. Increased colonial expansionism
4. Some mumbo-jumbo about cultural purity and economic egalitarianism
6/Anyway, a year later, some different coup plotters tried again. This time their plan involved lots of assassinations. They successfully assassinated the Prime Minister, but failed to kill the visiting Charlie Chaplin (which they hoped would provoke a war with the U.S.
7/But despite killing Japan's elected leader, the coup plotters received only light punishment!!

There was an outpouring of popular support on their behalf. They thus received only a short stint in jail...which of course encouraged further coup attempts.
8/Anyway then there was another coup attempt a couple years later that never got off the ground, but of course no one was punished.
9/But finally, in 1936, the big one came.

A large number of junior army officers, with troops to back them, and sympathies from some generals, launched a huge insurrection aimed at assassinating senior politicians and seizing control of government buildings.
10/Some generals sympathized with the insurrectionists, but the Emperor and a critical mass of loyalists opposed them. Eventually they were arrested.

This time -- FINALLY -- the government meted out harsh punishments, executing 17 of the plotters and imprisoning others.
11/But now here's the thing. The Japanese government went on to do pretty much exactly what the coup plotters wanted!

They put the military in charge of the country! They tried to colonize all of Asia! And they started a war with the U.S.!

Oops.
12/So what can we learn from Japan's failures in the 1930s?

Fortunately, the coup attempt of 1/6/2020 didn't come from within the military. Nor does Trump support or fascism in general come from the military. So that's one positive difference.
13/Another positive difference is that the U.S. does not currently have a tradition of "government by assassination", as Japan did then. In the 60s we did, but assassinations are thankfully rare now.
14/BUT, there are some disturbing similarities between 1930s Japan's crazies and the right-wingers who stormed the Capitol on 1/6.
15/The first big lesson from the failures of 1930s Japan is:

PUNISH THE PLOTTERS HARSHLY THE FIRST TIME.

Don't wait for the coup attempts to escalate! Don't call the coup plotters "patriots"! Don't let them off with a slap on the wrist!
16/The second big lesson is:

DON'T GIVE IN TO THE COUP PLOTTERS' IDEOLOGY.

Japan basically became what the rightists wanted. We musn't do that.
17/Remember, a slap on the wrist will just encourage the same assholes to be bolder the next time.

The first of Japan's many coups was even less impressive than what we saw on 1/6!

Because it wasn't punished, it encouraged more and more.
18/We're a more stable country than 1930s Japan, with better institutions.

But if we give coup plotters a slap on the wrist, and call them "patriots", we too will go down the path of chaos and fascism.

(end)

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"Competitive wokeness", like "virtue signaling" and "preference falsification", seems to be something people on the right say in order to pretend that people on the left don't really believe what they claim to believe.


Basically we have a whole bunch of ways of saying "You can't possibly believe that!!". Which helps us avoid the terrifying fact that yes, people generally do believe it.

Of course, "believe" doesn't mean what it means in econ class. It means that people get a warm feeling from asserting something, even if they don't know what it means. "God is omnipotent", etc.

A lot of times we believe extreme things, simply because asserting those things all together in a group gives us a warm feeling of having an army on our side.

It's not competitive wokeness. It's COOPERATIVE wokeness.

"Virtue signaling" isn't fake or pretend. It's real.

"Virtue", when it comes right down to it, means membership on a team.

Sometimes, to prove you're on a team, it helps to say something people on the other team could never bring themselves to say.
To be honest, I think this is just the effect of Twitter.

If you're on Twitter all the time - as every political commentator now is - it's easy to think that whiny, big-talking Twitter slacktivists are "the Dems".

But what's happening out there on the ground?


This is another reason I think Twitter is so bad for society.

It convinces intellectuals and commentators that practically everyone who's on their side is an extremist.

Which makes them tolerate extremism out of a (false) feeling of necessity.

If you stay on Twitter too much (which we all do now), you start to think that the typical left-of-center person is some British wanker who quote-tweets "Imagine thinking this" to anyone who doesn't like the idea of "ending capitalism".

But he is not typical.

A majority of Americans are not on Twitter.

But *every* journalist, commentator, and intellectual *has* to be on Twitter.

So every journalist, commentator, and intellectual comes face to face with big-talking slacktivist faux-extremists day in and day out.

It's a problem!!

Online bubbles full of shouty faux-extremists are, in general, fine.

The difference is that every journalist, commentator, and intellectual is essentially forced to exist in THIS bubble, because their jobs require it.

Twitter is a dystopian technology.

(end)
1/Lots of tech companies and workers are making noises about leaving San Francisco, LA, NYC, and other "superstar" cities.

Some are predicting a shift to remote work and distributed companies.

Let's take a hard look at what that would actually

2/We're all familiar with the trend of tech companies and other knowledge industries (finance, biotech, etc.) piling into a few tech hubs, raising rents and house prices.

Now some think the advent of Zoom, Slack, etc. might reverse this trend.

https://t.co/nQVCJrKvrB


3/But escaping the superstar cities is going to be tough.

The forces keeping tech companies in places like SF are so strong that these regions have essentially become prisons for these companies.


4/In order to escape the prison of the superstar cities, tech companies and other knowledge industries will have to overcome the Four Jailers of Industrial Clustering:

1. In-person office productivity

2. Thick market effects

3. Knowledge spillovers

4. City life amenities

5/I'm actually pretty optimistic that companies can find ways to make remote work productive.

Studies show that working from home *some* of the time actually tends to raise

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