BC HEALTH
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Mega thread on seismic few days of the pandemic in Ireland.

📍The govt implemented level five.

📍More info about the UK variant.

📍And NPHET held one of the most important briefings in months on New Years Eve.

What's happened and where does it leave us now?

 If you've understandably avoided news for the last week or more this should bring you up to date:

First:📍Stay home unless you have to leave, no visitors bar support bubbles, exercise within 5km. Essential shops only to open.

Full info: https://t.co/yID5ccJltY
How did we get here? The current restrictions were introduced on Dec 30 by An Taoiseach.

Prior to that it was to be 'level 5 with adjustments'. Non-essential retail, gyms, tennis and golf clubs were to remain open, schools were to return on Jan 5.

https://t.co/hqRKPcINQS
The 'level five with adjustments' plan was only introduced on Dec 23. It was supposed to be reviewed on January 12. Yet it was quickly overtaken, and superseded with stronger measures on December 30.

What happened that it was needed, and needed strengthening?
Background first: Cases flatlined into Dec around 300.

The hope was they'd fall further in the early weeks due to a lag effect from the previous level five of Oct-to-end-Nov, but they didn't. The baseline was about 300. In Oct, NPHET's aim was <100.
To understand the positions now, it's worth understanding the decisions then.

Govt & NPHET differed on specifics of level 3 for Dec.

NPHET wanted to allow some household visits, more for Xmas, hospitality closed.

Govt went with no visitors *until* Dec 18, hospitality open.
Both said some easing was warranted for December.

Both also accepted that the easing was likely to lead to an increase in cases into Christmas.

And both said they wanted to give people 'a meaningful Christmas'.

NPHET Nov 26:
What they differed on was 'how', and how big an increase would be acceptable before changing course.

NPHET's view on Nov 26 was further 'intervention' would be needed once we hit 400 cases a day.
It modelled scenarios for different rates of R but on the "optimistic" basis that cases would continue to fall into early December to 100.

Even on that basis they projected, R of 1.4+ = 400 cases in January.
"If we start with a higher case number in early December, the threshold will be breached sooner."

We did start with a higher case number, around 300.

On Dec 3 NPHET said it was concerned about this high baseline but...
...the worse case scenario displayed in the modelling that day, R 1.6, projected 1800+ cases a day some time in mid-late January.

We're around that now and it's only *just* about January.
Here's Professor Nolan warning on Dec 3 about the danger if we hit 1.4.

Unfortunately, we ended up way beyond 1.4, and even beyond 1.6, the worst case scenario displayed on that day. We hit 400 by about Dec 13th. https://t.co/qBomAG8fS7
Why is this context important?

Because govt *now* often refers to how things have gone far beyond even worst case scenarios of NPHET, and say this is evidence that the increased transmissibility of the UK variant must have driven the December increase.

An Taoiseach, Dec 23:
While NPHET *now* says the level of increased social movement through Dec is sufficient to provide a "full explanation for the patterns of transmission we are now seeing". Key difference.

(i.e. They didn't show R 1.8+ in their displays, but we got there.)
https://t.co/rQjVJtejkP
Hard evidence of impact of the variant? Not great yet.

NPHET says it's analysed two batches of positive samples, one set of ~70 from the period Dec 18-20, and another of ~90 for more recent cases, in both about 10% of the cases were the UK variant.

See: https://t.co/rQjVJtejkP
The Public Health England estimates which say the UK variant pushes up the R value up by between 0.4 and 0.7 are based on the variant being the *only* type in circulation.

Here from Public Health England, 'VOC' = The variant:
https://t.co/bSPq3YQq1E
But it's certainly *possible*, as the Taoiseach believes, that the variant is more prevalent than the evidence currently available seems to indicate.

The latest info from the UK indicates a very rapid spread took place, but there were no copies of the variant in our Nov data.
In November ~2% of positive swabs here were fully genome sequenced, and no copies were found of the UK variant.

NPHET has since done two further analyses of Dec swabs (from 19-20, and this week), both times finding 10% of cases were UK variant.
But these are small batches - less than 200 in total from Dec. So the data is very limited, but the interpretation of the impact of the variant differs between NPHET and government.
In a strange way, if the Taoiseach is right, it's kinda good news.

Because we've spike like this, and if we've spiked like this without the increased transmissibility of the variant, it's even more concerning than otherwise. This is where the '4000 cases' come in.
The red line is for swabs which were flagged as positive in the system, the blue line is the confirmed cases reported to NPHET (and by media) each day.

For months they've broadly aligned, since Dec 24 they haven't.

The gap is - in large part - the under-reported number.
Had to break this thread due to a Twitter video uploading issue. It continues here:

https://t.co/Wt4GpOG0Rt

More from Health

Adam Wagner
Adam Wagner
@AdamWagner1
🚨New lockdown regulations just published, in force tomorrow

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 3) and (All Tiers) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

https://t.co/L5jwlTDaIE

(Thread)


These are not a new set of regulations: they are amendments an old set of regulations

Which we thought were gone! But they are back

Welcome back No.3 regulations

A quick thing before we continue!

I have been analysing these laws for free for 9 months now - if you want to say thanks and have a few £ to spare please give to my @LawCentres fundraiser

They give free legal advice to people who need it

They also amend the All Tiers regulations

Oh god it's all amendments by paragraph references

Basically all of England now in Tier 4 and Tier 4 is amended but not by a huge amount

This really is a terrible way to make laws on the fly - who can possibly understand it?!


So, to explain, you need 2 documents open if you want to understand what is going on:

All Tiers regulations (Tiers 1-4, 2 December as amended) https://t.co/IraPQ112ak

And amendments https://t.co/L5jwlTDaIE

No sensible way of doing except by track changes, on it now, back soon
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Dr Catherine Pemble is #SocialDistancing
Dr Catherine Pemble is...
@CatherinePemble
Right, screw it. Here's a thread on *that* FBLive by Alex Cairnie about #Govanhill. Lets do a watch-through shall we? (Mind, I'm a resident of Govanhill, and a sociologist. I'm also 5'3, and a visibly queer woman so if half his claims are true I should be living in terror)

00:30: Welcomes viewers and uses points out that his videos are only getting attention b/c they're 'horrific'. Directs folk to his Youtube page. So already clout hunting.

1:08: "I've been warned to stay out of Govanhill. I'm a marked man" (proceeds to use a beanie as a disguise)

1:30 "Laughing and joking aside, here's somebodys front garden." Proceeds to show litter and claim its thrown from windows and this is 'common'. I know a handful of streets with litter issues like this, but its neither common nor unique to #govanhill and other deprived areas.

2:10 "Don't be under any illusion I'm only showing you the bad bits" - only shows you the bad bits.

3:45: He's had offers of help, but hes said no because hes not responsible for 'anybody elses safety' Good lord.

5:01: "Its not that bad. But its not all good either" -Correct

6:00: TW: child abuse - He starts claiming to have been contacted by a health professional and told about child abuse 'in the area'. Huge ethical issues here as the 'professional' who has 'been in the game a long time' is reporting to Facebook Dude and not authorities.
HEALTH
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el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
this simple, counter narrative fact keeps cropping up all over the world.

hospital and ICU utilization has been and remains low this year.

it's terribly curious that so few of these monitoring tools provide historical baselines.

getting them is like pulling teeth.


we might think of this as an oversight until you see stuff like this:

this woman was arrested for filming and sharing the fact that their are empty hospitals in the UK.

that's full blown soviet. what possible honest purpose does that

this is the action of a police state and a propaganda ministry, not a well intentioned government and a public heath agency.

"we cannot let people see the truth for fear they might base their actions on real facts" is not much of a mantra for just governance.


90% full ICU sounds scary until you realize that 90-100% full is normal in flu season.

staffed ICU beds are expensive to leave empty. it's like flying with 15% of the plane empty. hospitals don't do that.

and all US hospitals are mandated to be able to flex to 120% ICU.

the US is currently at historically low ICU utilization for this time of year.

61% is "you're all going to go out of business" territory as is 66% full hospital use.

can you blame them for mining CARES act money? they'll die without it.
HEALTH
David Fisman
David Fisman
@DFisman
I do want to talk a bit about connections, conflicts and information during a pandemic. Since @fordnation insinuated I have COI which I don't, let's take a look at a single instance where @fordnation and Hospital for Sick Children are both making interesting decisions.

Both share a powerful supporter in Peter Gilgan, who has been a great supporter of Sickkids

But his company, Mattamy Homes, has also substantially bankrolled Ontario Proud, which I have reason to believe pushed the Postmedia hit on my reputation.


Sickkids and Mattamy have very close ties. Here is Mary Federau, a longtime Sickkids exec who has moved to Mattamy but remains involved with the Sickkids foundation:


Mary's bio is too modest. It looks as though it has been scrubbed a bit over the last 72 hours. Here's the google cache from Jan 25:
HEALTH
Yohannes #Tigray First
Yohannes #Tigray First
@Yohannes_T_M
@MSF was allowed to enter #Mekelle on 16 Dec & here is their account 👇

"no basic supplies. The local hospital was running at 30 to 40 %, with very little medication"

This is why one of the reason why we demand unfetters #HumanitarianCorridor
#TigrayGenocide

#Adigrat "The situation was very tense & its hospital was in a terrible condition. Most of the health staff had left, there were hardly any medicines &there was no food, no water and no money"
#StopWarOnTigray
#TigrayGenocide
#HumanitarianCorridor
#EritreaOutOfTigray

After 1 month since @AbiyAhmedAli declared victory

"#Adwa & #Axum. There we found a similar situation: no electricity & no water. All the medicines had been stolen from #Adwa general hospital & the hospital furniture & equipment were broken"

#StopWarOnTigray
#TigrayGenocide


"Beyond the hospitals, around 80 or 90 per cent of the health centres that we visited between Mekele and Axum were not functional, either due to a lack of staff or because they had suffered robberies"

#StopWarOnTigray
#TigrayGenocide
#EritreaOutOfTigray
@UN @POTUS @StateDept


"1 woman had been in labour for 7 days without being able to give birth. Her life was saved because we were able to transport her to #Mekele"

It is really heartbreaking to imagine how many of our mothers & sister have lost their lives.

#StopWarOnTigray
#TigrayGenocide
@UN
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The chorus of this song uses the shlokas taken from Sundarkand of Ramayana.

It is a series of Sanskrit shlokas recited by Jambavant to Hanuman to remind Him of his true potential.

1. धीवर प्रसार शौर्य भरा: The brave persevering one, your bravery is taking you forward.


2. उतसारा स्थिरा घम्भीरा: The one who is leaping higher and higher, who is firm and stable and seriously determined.

3. ुग्रामा असामा शौर्या भावा: He is strong, and without an equal in the ability/mentality to fight

4. रौद्रमा नवा भीतिर्मा: His anger will cause new fears in his foes.

5.विजिटरीपुरु धीरधारा, कलोथरा शिखरा कठोरा: This is a complex expression seen only in Indic language poetry. The poet is stating that Shivudu is experiencing the intensity of climbing a tough peak, and likening

it to the feeling in a hard battle, when you see your enemy defeated, and blood flowing like a rivulet. This is classical Veera rasa.

6.कुलकु थारथिलीथा गम्भीरा, जाया विराट वीरा: His rough body itself is like a sharp weapon (because he is determined to win). Hail this complete

hero of the world.

7.विलयगागनथाला भिकारा, गरज्जद्धरा गारा: The hero is destructive in the air/sky as well (because he can leap at an enemy from a great height). He can defeat the enemy (simply) with his fearsome roar of war.
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
#Guruvayur_Krishna_Bhakthi  🕉
#Guruvayur
#Storytime
Beautiful Story of Guruvayurappan

Poonathanam Namboothiri was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. One day Poonthanam was going to Guruvayur Kshetram. It was night time and eventhough Namboothiri was tired he continued to walk


Suddenly some thieves came and blocked his way. Poonthanam cried for Shri Krishna to help. Thieves snatched all valuables from him, but Namboothiri holding his Bhaghavatam book called Shri Krishna to help. That time a man came in a horse back and fought with thieves and protected


Namboothiri. Poonthanam thanked Krishna for helping him from danger and said to the man that "Shri Krishna has send you here and I don't know how to thank you".  The man smiled and told that he is Mangattachan, minister of  samoodhiris. Poonthanam once again thanked him and


gave his ring to Mangattachan as a token of thanks and continued his journey. He reached Guruvayur early morning for Nirmalya Darshan. Temple poojari came near him and told that Guruvayurappan came in his dreams and asked to hand over the ring to poonthanam.


When he opened Kshetra Nada poonthanam was surprised to see his ring on Guruvayurappan, which he gifted to Mangattachan. He understood that it was Guruvayurappan who came as Mangattachan to protect him. This is how Bhagwan treat his devotees.

Hare Krishna
🙏🕉🙏
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Melissa (she/her)
Melissa (she/her)
@LiteraryMouse
In regards to the #CapitolCoup, I’m in a unique position. I monitored forums ahead of time and then was present for the coup itself.

These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.

Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.

Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.

Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.

Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.

What you will see is detailed planning and coordination within these small groups.

Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.

After four years, the insurrectionists were carefully attuned to Trump’s messaging.

Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.

It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.
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The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr


The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab


The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF


The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW
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