I've done many programs over the last 2 weeks about the push for and dangers of a New War on Terror & how to stop it: talked to @briebriejoy, @virgiltexas, @OwenJones, @RaniaKhalek, @megynkelly.

Here's
my segment on it last night with

Two key points I want to flag about these interviews on the threatened Domestic War on Terror. But first: please watch this short clip of Obama's former CIA Director and drone-killer guru describing with great glee how he envisions this war and who is targeted (via @tomselliott):
The first key point: none of this requires speculation. Those who now wield power -- establishment Dems, neocons, security state ghouls and their media allies in you-know-which-outlets -- are explicitly saying they want the New War on Terror to copy the first one, but in the US:
The 2nd point: if your primary prism for understanding what happens in DC is Dem v. GOP, you will understand nothing, and will ensure your own impotence.

Much of what Dems will do will be in alliance with people like Liz Cheney, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney. It's not how it works:
One of the best explanations came from Obama. He said that most of the supposedly "vicious fighting" between the establishment wings of the 2 parties is just theater, for public consumption.

Those factions play with each other "within the 40 yard lines":

https://t.co/qfeOqG7UAB
KEY: "135 civil rights groups speak out against Congress' proposed new domestic terror law" - joining @RashidaTlaib, @IlhanMN, @AOC, @justinamash and many on the right. The letter warns of the dangers of the Adam Schiff desire for new anti-terrorism laws:

https://t.co/a8dO01oj0M
Among the groups signing this letter opposing new anti-domestic-terror laws: @ACLU, @Demos_Org, @greenpeaceusa, @hrw, @NAACP, @pal_legal, @amnesty.

A trans-national coaliton in defense of civil liberties can stop the Schiff/Liz-Cheney push for a New Domestic War on Terror.
Meanwhile, the latest news on the "insurrectionist insurgency" that John Brennan, Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney and those types think is like Al Qaeda and need to be crushed with a new War on Terror:

https://t.co/47Me8VpUky
For the new domestic War on Terror, Biden chooses a veteran of the First War on Terror: prompting additional worries that the abusive tactics used in the name of fighting ISIS & Al Qaeda are being fully imported domestically - by @attackerman

https://t.co/j2egMbv27E

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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