NEW: A former US Marine, Donovan Crowl, stormed the Capitol as part of an organized militia. My latest for @newyorker, on what he reveals about the role of far-right groups last week and beyond:

Crowl, whose name and role in last week’s events are being reported for the first time in this story, is fifty years old and served in the Persian Gulf in 1990.
Crowl was wearing the crest of the Oath Keepers, a far-right group that recruits former and current law enforcement and military officials. He is also a member of a local Ohio militia that has shown up at political events, sometimes armed.
These are among a number of sometimes overlapping extremist groups that were present last week.
Far-right militias have deep roots in American history, and while several experts I spoke with said Trump had ignited those groups, they also did not believe their fervor would wane after Trump’s departure.
Crowl’s mother and sister, as well as a friend, said he had become increasingly radical and enamored of Trump and pro-Trump conspiracy theorists, and recalled him making racist remarks (something Crowl denied).
In an 80-minute interview, during which Crowl was drinking, he confirmed he had entered the Capitol, but said his intentions had been peaceful. (He also threatened me, told me he wanted to eat the faces of my family members, and said some stuff about phrenology.)
Crowl said his local militia had no plans related to the Inauguration, but also emphasized that his group and others like it will not be going away. His sister said she was ID’ing him in part because of fears related to future attacks.
Crowl was also the subject of intense scrutiny from a group of digital sleuths and citizen journalists. Thank you to everyone who shared their insights as I reported, and to @jsrailton, who has continued his efforts.

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Let me take a stab at this after years of reporting on Marine One, HMX-1, Continuity of Government, etc. None of this is definitive, but it could help explain what folks are seeing:

1.) HMX-1, which flies the VH-3D and VH-60N 'White Top' helicopters used to move... 1/X


the President and VP around, those helos being called Marine One or Two when either is onboard, need to train. The urban landing zones, including WH and VP Residence, are not simple to get in and out of. So, crews need some currency training. They are not just tasked with... 2/X

moving POTUS and VP to get them around the region and to Andrews AFB for long-haul flights, they are essential to Continuity of Government operations. This means that if a threat were to emerge, they need to be ready to snatch POTUS and VP in minutes. This is partially... 3/X

why they have a full forward operating location at Naval Support Activity Anacostia, just 3 miles from the WH. As such, practice is important and considering the state of things, it is critical now more than in any recent memory. 4/X

2.) Considering what happened last week, including mobs of Trump supporters screaming in unison to hang the VP for doing what the constitution states, absolutely despicable in every way, security has been tightened just as it has been all over. Using the helicopters instead.. 5/X
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.