Iran.
The Insurrection Act.
and (White House and civilian DOD leadership) Insanity.
1. A brief thread on why we should not panic but should worry, even be a bit...alarmed.
I've been speaking with former Trump Administration officials and with other former senior national security types who remain plugged in to the Pentagon.
Iran.
The Insurrection Act.
and (White House and civilian DOD leadership) Insanity.
January 3 is the anniversary of Suleimani's killing, followed shortly by the end of the 40-day mourning period for Fakhrizadeh. So there is the prospect of Iranian retaliation, to which a U.S. response (or conceivably preemptive action) would certainly be legitimate.
But of course there's also the possibility of the Trump Administration using an Iranian provocation to launch an action that's way beyond proportionate, as well as the possibility of simply inventing a predicate for U.S. action.
This obviously wouldn't stop the transition or even endanger it; but it would create an atmosphere of crisis and even chaos in which the second possibility--the Insurrection Act--might seem more doable.
As one former national security official put it to me, when you play out this scenario it's hard to see how it works--but even trying to invoke the Insurrection Act would create a full-blown constitutional and governmental crisis.
The only reasons to worry about this are that Trump apparently has mention this to allies in recent days, and, I'm told, the senior civilians at DOD have been asking around--just in case!--about how it would work.
And of course Trump is encouraging his supporters to come to D.C. on January 6; it's not at all unlikely there'll be turmoil, disturbances, perhaps violence, which would obviously be Trump's excuse for trying to invoke the Act.
There have been preparations for such an eventuality among senior uniformed officials and others at the Pentagon who are on the side of constitutional government, and the reaction would be serious and even dramatic. And I think Trump knows that.
This the third "I" is kind of a catchall, meant to capture the real craziness of many of those with whom Trump is consulting, but also of many of the newly installed Trump civilians in the Pentagon.
More from Government
The Manatee-Sarasota area has many connections to the horrific scene of insurrection in Washington DC yesterday. Want to see? Buckle up for this thread: /1
The Manatee GOP expressed support for Josh Hawley’s objections to certification of the electoral college vote. /2
Josh Hawley’s home-state newspaper says Hawley has blood on his hands for a “Capitol coup attempt.” This is who the Manatee GOP cheered on.
Florida GOP Vice Chair & Sarasota County Commissioner Christian Ziegler was at the protest, as described in this @HeraldTribune article.
The protest was led by the same people connected to Ziegler who were filming outside the Vern Buchanan town hall at the Van Wezel in Sarasota in 2017, namely Dustin Stockton. Stockton was also part of Steve Bannon's border wall group. /5
https://t.co/NbOxVqbtO4
The Manatee GOP expressed support for Josh Hawley’s objections to certification of the electoral college vote. /2
Josh Hawley’s home-state newspaper says Hawley has blood on his hands for a “Capitol coup attempt.” This is who the Manatee GOP cheered on.
Florida GOP Vice Chair & Sarasota County Commissioner Christian Ziegler was at the protest, as described in this @HeraldTribune article.
The protest was led by the same people connected to Ziegler who were filming outside the Vern Buchanan town hall at the Van Wezel in Sarasota in 2017, namely Dustin Stockton. Stockton was also part of Steve Bannon's border wall group. /5
https://t.co/NbOxVqbtO4
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