Is the European Union really being unreasonable over the City of London?
Or are we seeing an inevitable consequence of a Brexit that prioritised sovereignty over financial services?
A thread…🧵💵🏦🇬🇧🇪🇺
To some extent yes – especially true among French.
But don’t discount the financial stability concerns, especially since UK ministers have said they intend to use Brexit to diverge on regulation...6/
When the UK was in the EU both co-operated to determine financial regulation.
Now there’s no institutional mechanism to force co-operation, build trust, ensure enforcement etc...8/
More from Government
'Peaceful transition to Military Power....'
Cannon
44
....heard around the world
NG - High Alert https://t.co/lfeSiUCCRB
We Will Never Forget
44
Stage is set
https://t.co/h6G3LCevII
Following the 44 trail of breadrumbs
https://t.co/PcX0uKUEUW
Cannon
44
....heard around the world
NG - High Alert https://t.co/lfeSiUCCRB

\U0001f4a5 BOOM \U0001f4a5
— R\u0113d.P\u012bll.Ph\u0101rm\u0101c\u012bst (@Red_Pill_Pharma) January 18, 2021
30 secs in - what do I hear?
\u2018Peaceful transition to military power\u2019
\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 MILITARY IS THE ONLY WAY \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 pic.twitter.com/9NPMT7N7Qy
We Will Never Forget
44
Stage is set
https://t.co/h6G3LCevII

The stage is set. Staged.
— JeLove (@LovesTheLight) November 7, 2020
Where? (the) Delaware.
10:44
Purple
First graphic in 98https://t.co/PKHlxp0rzS pic.twitter.com/XCx6pVQTHx
Following the 44 trail of breadrumbs
https://t.co/PcX0uKUEUW

Boom, Boom, Boom pic.twitter.com/ZcZXAgL0Qf
— JeLove (@LovesTheLight) August 13, 2020
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?

The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.

This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta

To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
