Situation Update, Dec. 11th – DoD de-fangs the CIA, 305th intel proves foreign interference, SCOTUS maneuvers

Quick Thread on the Gut Microbiome

Hippocrates said: “All disease begins in the gut.”
While there is significant truth to this, in my personal view of health, it is a little more complex, but it is largely true.

The gut affects the rest of the body, being the gateway to what is absorbed, via the gut-brain axis (directly affects the brain), and due to the metabolism, absorption, detoxification and immune system (70% is in the gut) which takes place/resides in the gut, etc.

This is why it is so critical to take care of our gut health, because once it is negatively affected, it may never be the same again. What affects the gut microbiome? There are over 100,000 trillion microorganisms working together in the gut.

There are 10x more bacterial cells than human cells. Usually, we focus on the bacteria, although there are other species.

Currently, out gut microbiome is less diverse than historically, which can have a negative impact on our health as various species have distinct functions (metabolizing food, producing vitamins like B12 – which we have lost, among other functions).

“Those schools who try to do everything they would do in a face to face context in a remote context are going to come unstuck” Darren Northcott .....

“Worst workload is in schools that are reinventing the wheel rather than using resources like @OakNational “ ....

“Teachers are still being required to do triple and double marking, hand in daily and weekly lesson plans, and some schools are hanging onto flight paths and half term data drops AND now add remote learning to it”

“There is no evidence that one form of remote learning is better than another”

“There are schools with really effective remote learning that don’t use live streaming at all”

An important part of growing as a researcher is developing research taste. But it can be hard to explicitly work on. So I wanted to share some concrete exercises for developing research taste.

(Take my advice with a grain of salt! Note version: https://t.co/2BhyxOKy3q )

Exercise 1: Write down a list of research ideas. Have a mentor you respect rate each idea 1-10. Discuss ideas where you disagree with them after reflection.

It often takes several months of work to truly test an idea. Asking a mentor is a cheap proxy.

Exercise 2: Pay attention when other people try ideas you’ve had. How did the results compare with your expectations?

If you’re investing in brainstorming, you’ll have tens or hundreds of research ideas for each one you try. It can be emotionally uncomfortable when someone publishes an idea you had, but it’s an opportunity to get precious feedback for free.

Exercise 3: Interview researchers around you on their taste. Why do they work on the problems they do? How do they pick problems? What’s their “big picture” of research?

Bonus: If you have a great interview, you might consider writing it up with their permission.

Horn is linked to the root KRN, and the same applies to crown, which is another symbol of the same idea, both placed at the head, conveying summit, ornamented by rays. Horns, in their symbolic use, take two main forms: the ram's, which are solar, and the bull's, which are lunar

And the priest shall take of the blood thereof with his finger, and put it upon the horns of the altar of burnt offering, and shall pour out all the blood thereof at the bottom of the altar.
Leviticus 4:30

☀️🦄
🌙🐂

And Joshua the son of Nun called the priests, and said unto them, Take up the ark of the covenant, and let seven priests bear seven trumpets of rams' horns before the ark of the LORD.
Joshua 6:6

Our term horn as in the instrument has a literal root 🐑🎺

Horn is also the same root as thorn, both signifying a protruding ray, thus luminosity, the symbol of solar power, but also weaponry a symbol of physical power, and pointedness signifying summit or elevation.

And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings...
Rev 17:12

So that every single one of you precious souls are prepared and are calm and not panicked ❤️:

It is likely that we will be hearing from our fearless leader tomorrow, January 11th, 2021 or sometime early on this week. I give you a time table as something of the magnitude.......

THREAD, PT DEUX -- it was a lovely long weekend, I’m feeling rested and energized, and lucky for you I’ve got some more great criminal justice policy ideas to share. Real exciting stuff, I promise. Let’s flesh these out: 1/9

Ok, so to reduce unnecessary contacts between police and people/communities of color, here’s what we’re going to do: end the war on drugs. 2/9

Right now we needlessly make felons out of 10,000+ Virginians per year for narcotics possession, so for that we’re going to end the war on drugs. 3/9

Reduce court fines and fees, prevent disenfranchisement, demilitarize police departments, eliminate mandatory minimums? I’ve got a great idea for those, as well: end the war on drugs 4/9

Oh, and police and prison budgets are bloated, driving state and municipal governments into debt, with no societal benefit to show for it. So in order to save a crap ton of cash we’re also going to end the war on drugs 5/9

I'd like to briefly discuss something I think is really important. Possibly the most important thing to consider this new year. When I worked in law I was taught to research and analyze all info & possibilities/arguments. We were taught to remove our emotions from this process..

The reason we were taught not to become too emotionally invested in a particular client or case was because it creates a situation in which you can be blindsided and/or manipulated. It can cause you to miss important information or facts that your client didn't want you to see...

This can then in turn implode your entire case & can damage the firm and/or attorneys reputation & credibility. In law, your reputation/credibility is everything. We were taught to remove emotion from the fact finding due diligence process. We were taught to seek out counter

Evidence; we were taught to analyze a case or legal argument from all sides and perspectives. We were taught how to understand the other side & attorneys argument. This is a vigorous process of picking apart your theory, trying to poke holes in it, questioning your own clients

Story, trying to independently validate or disprove it. This is so when you take the case to trial, you are prepared for everything and all possibilities. You must know the other sides legal theory/argument better than they do. You must have a solid foundation of prior case law..

the new tabletop simulator update.... oh no

hey @BerserkGames, please hire freelance translators instead of doing whatever the fuck you're doing

oh god

mais je gueule

press V to pâte

IMHO, this article — https://t.co/wLiWDOZrvm — is an important corrective to fatalism about the new strain. As in, "welp, there are probably already at least a handful of cases of the new strain already here, so no matter what we do now, it's gonna spread." Not necessarily so.

"10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for...80 to 90 percent of transmission."

"An early run of bad [or good!] luck...can produce dramatically different outcomes."

New Zealand had 277 separate introductions; only 19% of them led to more than 1 additional case.

That's all referring to the original COVID strain, but I haven't read anything suggesting that the same pattern doesn't apply to the new variant. Not sure if we know yet, but it's at least possible a lot of people don't spread it (while the few that do, spread it *A LOT* a lot).

Here's what we know, or think we know:

* The new variant is here, with probably at least a handful of undetected cases.

* The new variant is so wildly contagious that, once it gains a foothold, cases WILL spike.

* Cases stopped rising steeply around Nov. 10 (by onset day).

It seems like 1 of 2 things is true:

1) New variant arrived in October or earlier, and helped cause our November spike. We then reined it in, without even realizing it was here.

2) New-variant community spread is low-level thus far, at least thru ~Xmas. No superspreaders yet.

Istigatha - a thread 🧵.

Found in the collection of risaa’il and fataawaa of Shaykhul-Islaam Ibn Taymiyyah (rahimahullaah) found in the Maktabah ath-Thaahirriyah,

In the screenshots, what is found in brackets is an addition from Mukhtasar al-Fataawaa al-Misriyyah.
(1/25)

(2/25)

It is not allowed for one to worship anyone except Allah. Dua is a form of worship. We must call upon Allah alone

It says in Surah Jinn verse 18

“And the masaajid are for Allaah (Alone), so do not call upon anyone along with Allaah.”
(3/25)

(4/25)

Abdullah bin Mas’ud (radiyallaahu ‘anhu) said: “People used to make du’aa to the Angels, and ‘Uzayr and al-Maseeh (the Messiah, Isa bin Maryam, alayhis salaam), so Allaah the Most High said:
(5/25)

A serious reasoning error that is particularly common among educated people is to argue that if a study hasn't been done on a particular question we have 'no data', and therefore no basis on which to form beliefs or act.

This is incorrect and dangerous. 1/

There is almost always a reference class we can use to make a sensible prediction, and often we can reason about the causal mechanism directly.

To see how this is clearly wrong, consider these two extreme cases: 2/

a. Before a vaccine trial is conducted we have 'no data' on how likely it is to work.

But we can estimate the likelihood just fine! To start with we can just check the base rate of all vaccine trials.

What fraction of all vaccine trials in history have had +ve results? 3/

That gives a much better estimate than pure agnosticism.

b. Imagine now that the vaccine trial results have come back positive. But by chance all the vaccines were given in a blue room.

So, will the vaccine still work if given in a red room? I guess we have 'no data'.

4/

So can we say nothing about about whether vaccines work in red rooms?

That is plainly ridiculous — we understand the causal mechanism and it doesn't involve room colour, so in fact we can give a near definitive answer to that question. 5/

Reactionaries are like, "ah, I see that you post constantly and passionately about minimum wage, but riddle me this: have you considered that some people I don't respect or care about might benefit from this?"

I love it when a thought occurs to someone a century after everyone with a brain thought about it and quickly explained why it's irrelevant or false.

Ah, but did you know that human beings who are of high school age also are compelled by social structure to mortgage the time they have in this life to perform labor to survive, from which wealthy people extract profit??? #gotcha

I find it very clarifying to think about min. wage not as the lowest amount you're owed for your labor but the lowest amount you're owed just for giving your employer that time, even if you're standing around. Your time alive is also what they are buying from you.

This is useful in part because it negates skill-based labor objections, which are garbage anyway, but anything that reframes the conversation as a human right and not a job-based right is good.

1/ The “No Surprises Act” is deeply flawed. It should not advance in its current form. Work must continue to reach a meaningful remedy to “surprise medical bills” #SMB that keeps patients out of the middle and provides balance.

Here are several concerns w/ the current proposal:

2/ The proposal should require that the initial “interim payment” made by the insurer for out-of-network services be considered the plan’s offer for IDR, to incentivize the insurer to pay a fair initial reimbursement.

But, the proposal does not.

3/ The proposal should allow the IDR process to consider UCR and an independent charge-based database. Lest it be a form of price-fixing by insurers since the qualifying payment is indexed to the insurer-set in-network median rate (w/CPIU adjustment).

But, the proposal does not.

4/ The proposal should avoid a complex administrative burden that threatens practice viability and leads to consolidation and higher healthcare costs for patients. Cost effective independent physician practice provides patients choice.

But, the proposal does not.

5/ The proposal should explicitly prohibit the IDR process from considering Medicare, Medicaid, and other public payer rates. These are well known to be below the cost of providing care and these programs are not implicated by the #SMB provisions.

But, the proposal does not.