He did but this will speak for me.

[42c] I’M CALLING IT ANONS.

I'M CALLING THE DEATH OF QUEEN ELIZABETH II ON 12/27/2020

THREAD POSTED ON DECEMBER 14, 2020

DECEMBER 14, DEC 1+4, D5.

PART ##4 CHESS 4D
PART ##5 CHESS 5D

d4.d5 FaLL of THE QUEEN

[13] DAYS TO PROVE ME WRONG

Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.

3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"

4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.

The ten points of the Nuremberg Code
1) The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.

2) The experiment should be such as to yield fruitful results for the good of society, unprocurable by other methods or means of study, and not random and unnecessary in nature. 2/n

3) The experiment should be so designed and based on the results of animal experimentation and a knowledge of the natural history of the disease or other problem under study that the anticipated results will justify the performance of the experiment. 3/n

4) The experiment should be so conducted as to avoid all unnecessary physical and mental suffering and injury. 4/n

5) No experiment should be conducted where there is an a priori reason to believe that death or disabling injury will occur; except, perhaps, in those experiments where the experimental physicians also serve as subjects. 5/n

VALENTINE DAY CELEBRATION: FRSC CAUTIONS MOTORISTS AGAINST EXCESSIVE SPEED, DRUNK DRIVING AND RECKLESSNESS ON THE ROAD.

Owing to the need to ensure a safe and crash free celebration during the 2021 Valentine Day celebration, the Federal Road Safety Corps has warned the teaming community of celebrants and other road users, to desist from indulging in drunk driving, avoid excessive speed,

and resist the temptation to drive recklessly so as to mitigate all incidences of road traffic crashes during the celebration.

The Corps Public Education Officer, @BisiKazeem who made this public, said that the Corps Marshal, Dr Boboye Oyeyemi has directed Commanding Officers across board to double their efforts by ensuring massive deployment of Officers and Men for enhanced visibility,

adequate traffic control, and maximum enforcement of all COVID-19 protocols amongst motorists.

People! Have you seen people being rude to each other during meetings, maybe directed at women/people of colour/disabled people/LGBTQ+ people? Do you want to help prevent this abuse?

Some tips you can consider as a bystander depending on the situation (thread)

Have a code of conduct and circulate it. Make it clear that abusive behaviour will not be accepted. Build in accountability strategies (what happens if someone violates it). Have a moderator/chair to observe the dynamics of your group.

This kind of behaviour is very normalised and insidious, so train yourself to spot it. Is there somebody that usually interrupts? Is there somebody that usually gets interrupted and silenced? Are there signs of aggressive communication?

Not everyone might like that you jump at their defense - your heart might be in the right place but it can come across as patronising. Try to bring up the subject with your colleagues and see what they think. Foster a culture of positive communication.

Once you see that somebody is trying to interrupt - politely redirect the discussion towards the person that was originally speaking. Eg "thank you for that, now I'd really like to hear what person xyz was saying earlier".