1. Oh shit, he’s done a thread Yes, and it won’t be the la…

2. So here’s step One on the journey I think we should take. If you want to take a different route, fine, but naturally, I think mine is the best, and I will tell you why.

3. Lots of people hurting right now, and emotional reactions to events are normal and natural. Hard to process what has happened. First acknowledge the fact. We have been dragged out, against the wishes of the majority.

4. No quick easy route back. Why not? Two reasons. British Politics, and the EU itself; both equally important, but one is something we can do something about directly, the other is something we can now only influence indirectly.

5. British Politics. The 2016 referendum scared British politicians shitless, and the division in the country still scares many. The Tory Party has given in to a coup by those who think they can use this to stay in power.

6. I know that in recent polls more people think Brexit is a bad idea than a good idea. But, there are some serious buts.

7. But 1; the margin still isn’t decisive. If it were decisive, politicians would begin to recognise there is no choice but to listen to the majority. What’s decisive? Anything over 60/40 consistently over several polls.

8. We’re not that far away. But anything less doesn’t look solid to a politician. A massive gamble that could simply make the division worse.

9. But 2. Most of the polls are asking what would you vote now if you had the referendum again, or is this Brexit a good or a bad idea? These are hypothetical questions, and you cannot place much faith in the answers people give.

10. But 3. The Brexit forces haven’t gone away. They’re populists. When they have a clear target they can mobilise, and they have shown they can do that effectively. But they’ve said Brexit is done. They can’t remobilise for every little thing. People get bored.

11. The EU: Put yourself in their shoes. This country has put the EU through a miserable time recently, but in truth we’ve been pretty irritating for many years. A brake on the progress they wanted to make. Worth keeping in though, because, big economy, global influence.

12. Now we’re out, the EU will get on with learning to live without us. The core of the project is solid. They might even lose Hungary and not care particularly.

13. This doesn’t mean they wouldn’t take us back. They would, but only if they can be sure we are stable and committed to membership. Why put themselves through the misery for less?

14. Even if we applied tomorrow, and there were signs we had seriously changed our minds, they would treat an application carefully. There are plenty of ways to strengthen the relationship while keeping the candidate sitting in the waiting room until everyone is certain.

15. You have to take those two factors, our politics, and the EU itself into account if you are going to have a well-founded analysis and a credible plan.

16. As far as our politics, and the relationship with the EU is concerned, they’re not going anywhere with this, or any future Tory government. That party has sold out to people whose lives and credibility now depend on staying out.

17. As for Labour, I know many, many people feel betrayed by Starmer’s decisions on the vote, and by his statement about the next election. But if you accept the analysis above, he’s just being realistic. There is no chance of rejoining in 2024, so why tie yourself to it?

18. The last thing anyone who wants to rejoin the EU should do is launch a scheme to do it in a few years and see it fail. That will set the cause back, not advance it.

19. Starmer of course, is not the whole Labour Party. Nor are the MPs. There are many members of that Party who are in the “rejoin” camp. Cutting yourself off from them is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

20. Our electoral system; out of date, no longer fit for purpose, but it is all we have. If you want to play the game, accept the rules and play hard, to win. That means either a lot more people vote Labour, or there is an electoral alliance of the parties in England and Wales

21. (Scotland is a separate case)

That's step 1, beat the Tories. That is the step you have to take, whatever you think the route to the destination is.

More in a day or two.

1. Oh shit, he’s done a thread
Yes, and it won’t be the last. Put them all together, and they might make a roadmap. You can guess what the destination is. Just start reading it, don't worry about how long it is. It's not that long.

More from For later read

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1. Oh shit, he’s done a thread Yes, and it won’t be the last. Put them all together, and they might make a roadmap. You can guess what the destination is. Just start reading it, don't worry about how long it is. It's not that long.

More from For later read

You May Also Like

1. Oh shit, he’s done a thread
Yes, and it won’t be the last. Put them all together, and they might make a roadmap. You can guess what the destination is. Just start reading it, don't worry about how long it is. It's not that long.