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Saved by @Alex1Powell

1. From convo on @Morning_Joe today about @DrIbram's new article which asks that progressive policy not be blamed for D losses/underperformance.

One of my main concerns is intraparty factionalism/fighting. Everything a "moderate" & "progressive"

 2. D fights- a R gets a vote. Certainly radical (and yes, defunding police departments IS radical) policy proposals that fall on the outside bands of the distribution are less attractive to this idealized "swing" voter who is, in our minds eye" always a high info, high reasoning.
3. I guess you'd call them a "fine dining" type voter. But we KNOW that actually, most swing voters are NOT like this. Don't believe me- check out @axios Swing Voter Project, which ran focus groups with Obama to Trump voters through the whole cycle. https://t.co/B3WEyCLZF9
4. Indeed, what @richthau learned about America's "deciders" is likely to haunt his sleep for ever as it personified a sticker I keep in my office which is a quote from George Carlin: "Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." (K.I.M. when we talk "stupid"
5. on my threads about people, we're not talking IQ, or overall stupid. We're talking civics. We're talking about political literacy. Very smart, successful people can't name their senators or their governor & are thus, civically stupid. And I'm sorry, not sorry for labeling them
6. as such. As a country, as a political culture, we're big on rights, but not on responsibilities that come with them. In other words, we're shirkers. Now, to be fair, its not really our fault. Once it became clear that grifting was a lot easier with a dumb public, the dumbing
7. of the public became a feature, not a bug. We basically have no political culture, certainly not one that tells citizens "you must tend to the gardens of your democracy to ensure it grows strong & stays healthy" and that is something we need to start fixing NOW so that in
8. 30 years, we can start to yield some benefits. But I digress. The political commentary/analysis has one frame, one paradigm to discuss political phenomena under, and like many things in the polarized era, it is no longer applicable- but the analysis forges on anyway. Here's a
9. a counterfactual that will demonstrate how little issues matter to election outcomes. The entire GOP has shifted far to the Right & is running on defund the police. I mean think about the GOP platform this fall. That platform, which they didn't bother to pen, was "whatever our
10. aspiring dictator says. And what WAS the aspiring dictator saying? He was saying he planned to restart the family separation program on the border and orphan MORE children heartlessly to join the 600+ already in the fed gov's permanent custody. If you are raped or dying of
11. cancer MAYBE we'll let you get an abortion to save your own life. Maybe. Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act- all gutted. I could keep going. Did I mention that the modal position of your average congressional/Senate Republican on the question of "what
12. should the federal gov do to help Americans survive economic disruption from COVID?" is NOTHING. The modal position of Senate Rs- 30+ of them is NO AID. That's bc the entire Republican Party is a party of extremists. All of its positions are now extreme. Its radical wing
13. started to take control of the party in 2010, exerted real influence- I mean enough where the party was radicalized & holding the control hostage- shutting it down over symbolic debt ceiling raises & forces fed workers to go w/o pay, closing down DC, for what amounts to a
14. policy temper-tantrum over Obamacare (they were so upset that 23 million people GOT insurance for the 1st time AND that 100 million of us, for the 1st time got GOOD insurance, insurance that actually paid for everything, that covered preventative shit instead of telling you,
15. if you want mammograms or colonoscopies- pay for it out of pocket. THIS is what had the GOP all a twitter, the biggest irony, of course, being that it was THEIR DAMN PLAN!!! But so extremist & radical was the Republican Party becoming that they shut down the entire country
16. trying to force Obama to veto his own healthcare law. BC THAT's normal behavior from a serious, governing party that appeals to the median voter.

And yet, do you know what happened? In those 2014 Midterms- they GAINED SEATS!!

They completely abandoned the middle of the
17. electorate, they didn't just touch a third rail of American Politics- they RODE that rail like a wave at Mavericks and yet they wiped out the entire Blue Dog Caucus of the Democrats (but only gained a couple more House seats bc @MichaelSteele only left a few behind in his net
18. 63 seat route in the 2010 Midterms, when again, right after destroying the American middle class, as the American economy was still sliding down from their previous management, their superior electioneering led to their 2010 pounding of the Ds by turning centrist policy
19. Obamacare/ACA) into RADICAL policy.

Which brings me to my point. The GOP has been able to fall into total control of extremists (the metamorphosis completed when Trump became the nominee & then cemented the GOP --> MAGA version of the GOP with his "thread the needle" 2016
20. which was accomplished in no small part by the Rep Party's strategic efforts to get Dems to beat themselves (a strategy they are keen to deploy on Dems again for the 2022 Midterms) and PAY NO PENALTY WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ELECTORATE. Yet, at the same time, the Democrats have
21. taken great pains to be as appealing to moderates/the middle as possible & have made, arguably no gains. They won the presidency, yes, but not just bc of "moderates." They won bc of massive participation surges of Dem coalition voters- in order of surge size-college ed whites
22. Latinos, and Black voters. And its easy to point at the surge size adv of college ed whites & say "see, its not worth investing in voters of color its too hard to turn them out" but what you're doing there (@davidshor) is voters of color are by & large (outside of GA & THANK
23. GOD, the state party chairs in MI, WI, PA, & AZ which themselves ran field on low propensity voters of color) ignored by campaigns- not invested in, or dramatically underinvested in, and then their low turnout is pointed at for justification of low investment. Meanwhile, the
24. 1 group, college ed voters most likely to surge on their own, get the most heavy investment. I mean ludicrous investment. So it should be no surprise that they bury everyone else (it wasn't to me- I predicted it, as well as yuge GOP turnout). Again, to win, you have to match
25. the GOP's ballot %. You can win the "ideas" war, but if the GOP outvotes you, you're losing the race. THIS is one reason why they pay no price for their extremism.

The other is that Dems have never bothered to tie the GOP to their extremism.

Again, we'll be changing that.
26. I want to add- if you enjoy these threads, soon they'll be moving to The Cycle, which will be hosted on @SubstackInc. After a few years of doing everything for free (I could afford to, I had W-2 jobs to support my family!) I am now transitioning to trying my hand at
27. media/writing/podcasting/lectures/etc as a career (as well as Super Pac work) in a weird fusion that I believe no one has ever really done at the same time before. I'm excited about it, bc my vision is that my work the Super Pac (I can't wait to reveal the name- its so hard
28. to keep it a secret from y'all!) will inform my writing/reporting/podcast over on The Cycle, and that I can use The Cycle to bring YOU into the Super Pac, and esp into the creative process of the ad creation room and stuff like that. Why? BC that's what I would want if I was
29. you and not me. When I was a prof- I always tried to make my classes my dream class. Something that would have knocked my socks off when I was an undergrad. I will bring the same mentality to The Cycle. Given this is something I am hoping you will be monetarily invested in
30. I very much want it to deliver for you and give you "value added." So, my goal will be to create a substack that gives as much as it takes and makes you feel like you are learning. Believe it or not, I'm actually very risk adverse. I rem how surprised @OldBullTV was to find
31. that out when he 1st reached out about doing a show. Yes, the lady who twice now has proclaimed w no equivocation that Ds would win the House & then then the presidency months ahead of both contests HATES taking risks. And yet here I am, now shoulders deep into launching not
32. one, but TWO W-9 style gigs that will compromise the whole of her financial future: its terrifying! I know I'm the one that's supposed to be uber confident & bad ass-so I'll def not going to admit that I'm terrified. Like getting a root canal- I just want to get it over with!

More from Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. Yes, @FareedZakaria's new book, Ten lessons From a Post-Pandemic World argues we don't need a big or small gov- we need a GOOD one.

We don't have that now & that is bc for decades now, the GOP has intentionally hallowed it out. Stripping it of funding under the auspice that

2. the only goal should be small. And as it turns out- that was stupid. And now we have a dysfunctional, as @maddow says, "big, bad" gov. Something that has been "wasted, and rotted and ruined." And its been intentional. Its been murdered, with no thought for how people would

3. suffer for it. COVID just put that suffering in a streamlined spotlight. But as @FareedZakaria points out- its the cherry on top of a 40 year plan that Bannon termed the final "deconstruction of the administrative state." As with the decimation of the economic tools that had

4. allowed the world's 1st middle class to emerge & flourish before The Great Lie ushered in the greatest wealth transfer in history. Not only were Americans bamboozled into voting away their wage increases, their pensions, & their health care (at least till 2010)- they were also

5. tricked into pissing away their country's superiority- its claim to fame, its ability to puff its chest out & say "look over here, we have the best _____. " I had no idea when I was a kid that we were not, in fact, the greatest country on Earth- at least not if you care about
BOOK
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.

All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet

We'll have to decide if we want it fast, or right


There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White

Its educated versus non-educated

And its global

1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW

2. they're gettable. The 2018 and 2020 cycle were "feelers." No doubt donors and strategists were skeptical. Now they have the analytic proof and the $ will be flowing. This is one reason that I decided that I had to get into electioneering myself. Someone is going to need to be

3. there talking to these voters from the Left (and talking to them with effective messaging- for ex they don't give two shits about insider trading corruption) or you'll see even more erosion in the D's vote share among non-college educated non-white voters, I'm sure of it. Its
POLITICS
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. Yes, Trump will claim to intend to target GOP senators up for reelection in '22 (like he did to Thune with Kristi Noem) if they don't join in @HawleyMO's sedition on Jan. 6, but the fact is, it's not clear whether Trump will be successful in ANY of those efforts & voting yes


2. to hedge off these threats will also create fissures & fractures for these incumbents among other elements of their party that could complicate their renominations. Indeed, what worries me the most about the potential for the country to slip into @anneapplebaum territory is

3. that what should be robust and intense push back from the party establishment against actually ending democracy- bc that's what Trump's request would do, if it was granted, is fairly muted. What we SHOULD be seeing from the mainstream of the party is threats to strip committee

4. assignments, chairs, privileges, even reelection funds, if anyone gets involved in this bullshit- in the House & the Senate, and the fact that you don't see it is more than a story of McConnell & McCarthy being afraid of Trump & his base. Its a story of receptivity, of the

5. level of receptivity the congressional and party leadership is dealing with both within the rank and file membership of the party and within its donor class, and THAT, my friends, is why you find me so concerned. That, and my decision to finally pull @anneapplebaum's book
TRUMP , CRYPTO
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. I am thankful that at 12pm 1/20 the powers of the prez will be removed from the most dangerous person who has ever held them. I am thankful for the many wonderful fellow Americans from across the spectrum that joined me to help get him out & save America from authoritarianism

2. I am thankful for each & every person that had to make a hard decision, stay silent & normalize this man & his party's actions- which mirror so closely actions taken by other leaders & parties as they moved to consolidate power at the expense of democracy (as documented so

3. clearly by @anneapplebaum's book Twilight of Democracy) bc their lock on power is threatened. Those of us that took a holistic look at events in the U.S., the scope of the Right's propaganda network, and the lengths to which GOP influencers (electeds & media) were willing to

4. go to manipulate public opinion and knew without a shadow of a doubt that we were facing a five alarm fire. Trump, as dumb & self-sabotaging as he is, does one thing perfectly well- manipulate public opinion. Trump fully understands that public opinion flows from the top-down,

5. and that when you control the information diet of a group of people, as the Right is controlled, that manipulation level reaches profound levels. By the time Trump came down the golden escalator in May of 2015- the Republican electorate was primed for someone like him to come
POLITICS
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. What @WillieGeist is trying to get across to @NikemaWilliams on @Morning_Joe is that the GOP is nationalizing their message & making their message high stakes, tapping into voters anger at Trump's loss to get them to vote in a Jan. run-off & that Ds NEED TO DO THE SAME. Its

2. about giving Trump power- its about giving low-info voters, who are the bulk of the electorate motivation to cast ballots in the run-off. This is WHY turnout plummets in these things on the D side- the GOP keeps their messaging on stakes (control of the senate to fend off

3. socialism) while Ds go off into policy. That is a losing strategy. It just lost them nearly a dozen House seats & the chance to cut into partisan gerrymandering by flipping 4 state houses. They can't make that mistake here bc control of senate is everything here. If Ds have it

4. Biden can get some policy done- if Ds don't, the GOP will block everything. Biden will be a lame duck from day 1. So the message should be "hey voter, did you know you have a super vote? That's right, with your one vote, you can elect 2 senators that will give Ds control of

5. senate & with it REAL police reform. With it, Dreamers not getting deported to countries they've even been to- potentially to die from lack of insulin. With it, the power to save the pre-existing conditions coverage for millions of Americans, including Nicu babies who'd in
TRUMP

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Vanessa Wills
Vanessa Wills
@vcwills
We need to stop imagining the Jan 6 fascists are purely "brainwashed," misguided, etc. Neither are they guided by white supremacy *only*.

They are largely a vanguard of principled petty bourgeois reactionaries who oppose democracy whether in its mass/working-class or liberal bourgeois form. They have allies in the most conservative and reactionary corners of the "big" bourgeoisie.

They see through a funhouse mirror the hypocrisy of liberal bourgeois democracy (no, the electoral college is not "sacred" 🙄). They also vehemently abhor the capacity of true democracy—socialism—to liberate oppressed, exploited workers upon whom their precarious fortunes depend.

To the extent liberal bourgeois democracy engages mass politics and gives even a highly attenuated and mostly suppressed voice to the working masses, that section of the petty bourgeoisie which turns to fascism regards liberal democracy as a betrayal. Only capital should speak.

The woman who died attacking the Capitol Building was a small business owner from San Diego. Yes, her head was full of conspiracist nonsense but she didn't just invent that lockdowns and worker protections might save lives but hurt her bottom line.
FOR LATER READ
Boz Tchividjian
Boz Tchividjian
@BozT
The evils committed by Ravi Zacharias were enabled by a toxic organizational leadership that is evidenced by how these same leaders responded when confronted about the widespread and ongoing abuses being perpetrated by the namesake of the institution. 1/29

Please take time to read this piece by @DavideAFrench and the 26-page letter written by a first-hand witness. Here are just some of the excerpts: 2/29

"At one point, Ravi suggested to me that the Task Force “issue a statement that they [the Thompsons] are hooligans, they are scoundrels, they are thugs, they are serial extortioners.” If we didn’t do that, he told me, he would ask his attorney to do so on his behalf." 3/29

"...I distinctly recall Ravi & Sanj mocking the Thompsons’ marriage & scornfully predicting how soon Brad & Lori Anne would get divorced. “I predict their marriage won’t survive the year,” Ravi asserted with laughter. “A year?” replied Sanj. “I wouldn’t give it six months!” 4/29

"In 2017, in the early stages of his RICO against the Thompsons, Ravi would often invoke Kelly [his attorney], making statements such as “my attorney said we are going to crush them.”" 5/29
FOR LATER READ
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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON IRONFLY

These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)

You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.

There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:

1) Initial size of the Wings
2) Risk Management
3) Adjustments

(2/n)

Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)

If you don't understand greeks, then ideally with 30 days to expiry (dte), wings should be around 300pts either side. If your trading in weekly then it should be not more than 200pts. Higher the premiums, higher the distance as we have more cushion of theta. (4/n)

It is important to understand that we need to reduce the distance of wings with time so as to manage our RISK in gap openings or sudden volatile move. So for eg. if you started with 300pt wings with 30dte, the wings wouldn't give the same protection when there is 7dte. (5/n)
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pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
My morning thought. I think what's most incompatible about the way I think and the journal article format as a means of capturing and validating thought is that I have a completely different sense of the relation between tentativeness, rigor, and informatic compression.

The characteristic Pete thought is: wait a minute, this whole area is dominated by an assumption that no one seems to be questioning, and I've got two options to express that: i) outline the logic of the issue in a quick and compressed way, ii) write a small book with references.

The discipline seems to want something in between these poles every single time, and this makes me extremely anxious because I feel (with good reason) like any partially referential engagement with the issue will get instantly torpedoed by anyone outside its referential remit.

To repeat something I've said before: I'm actually quite good at being *concise*, I just find it very hard to be *brief*, because most of the thoughts I have don't permit brevity. Consider what your (referential) reactions are to this brief piece:

One of the main genres of publication I've actually excelled in over the years is dictionary articles, which I take a lot of joy in writing, and include some of the pieces of which I'm most proud. Consider this one on the crux of Meillassoux's project:
FOR LATER READ
SALTSTORM007
SALTSTORM007
@saltstorm007
Ok...just spent a few looking at The Weekend’s page and it is weird AF!!! First off is this banner pic he has...take a look at it...a CLOSE LOOK AT IT....see all the ‘strange’ images he has within it? Notice the dice...all the 6’s...serpent tongue....
NOTHING TO SEE HERE.👇thread
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Kevin Murphy
Kevin Murphy
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Okay look - I didn’t grow up with comic books. But I read stacks of science fiction digests and I kit-bashed model cars into fantasy rods, and just tried to maintain a low profile until I could get out of the house. So you could say I’m a distant cousin of the comic book fan. /1

And sometimes one’s childhood passion follows them into adulthood, sometimes not, sometimes as an adult one finds a passion they never had as a child and embraces it. For me, that must include getting involved with a puppet show at the age of thirty. /2

So who’s to say whose passion’s legitimate and whose is bogus? Nobody. Someone might indict your passion but they have no ground to stand on and should be dismissed out of hand. /3

Maybe they’re envious that you have a passion, maybe they think that their passion is cooler than yours, or maybe they’re just insecure, who knows. Doesn’t matter. /4

What matters is that if something gives you joy, and in the process doesn’t hurt others, then by all means follow it. It’s how we explore our secret hopes, our shadow sides, our inner character. /5
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asif
asif
@aj_raja
PAKISTAN-INDIA WATER ISSUES – HOW INDIA STOPPED WATER IN PAKISTAN's CANALS IN 1948

Thread

After partition in 1947, the water system was also bifurcated between Pakistan n India.

India cheated Pakistan when on April 1, 1948, India suddenly n without warning stopped...
1/n


...the supply of waters flowing into Pakistan's Central Bari Doab and Dipalpur Canals.

The boundary award on the partition of the sub-continent had left the headworks of these canals in Indian territory, and in accepting it India had implied her willingness to leave...

2/n


...the historic distribution of common waters undisturbed.

India's action was therefore in flagrant disregard not only of international law n morality, but of her solemn commitments with Pakistan and a gross violation of this country's historical rights over common waters.

3/n

Faced with a threat of utter desolation of millions of acres of fertile land, Pakistan had perforce to sign a document with India in which she agreed to "India's progressively diminishing water supplies to these canals and to the West Punjab government's tapping...

4/n

...alternative resources".

A specific reservation was made in the document with regard to India's claim that she had full property rights over waters flowing into her territory, and could therefore use them as she liked.

The issue was, however, to be examined...

5/n
INDIA
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI BANKEY BIHARI JI, VRINDAVAN (UP)

Very famous Krishna Mandir where Bankey Bihari Ji is worshipped and looked after as a child.
Bankey means “Bent at three places”.
Thakur Ji was worshipped in Nidhivan till 1863. This mandir was constructed in 1864 by Goswamis.
@LostTemple7


Legend says that Swami Haridas used to worship Krishna in Nidhivan.
Once, his curious disciples entered the forest but they were almost blinded by bright, intense light. Upon knowing this, Swamiji himself went there and after his requests, Krishna appeared with his consort.


Krishna, then, left back this black charming murti,which we see now, before disappearing.
A curtain is drawn before the murti after every 15-30 second. It is said that if one stares long enough into the eyes of Shri Banke Bihari, the person would lose his self consciousness.


Bankey Bihari Ji sports a flute only once a year on the eve of Sharad Purnima.
Darshan of His lotus feet can be done only on Akshay Tritiya every year.
There are no loud bells here and
no early morning Darshan can be done so that child Krishna’s sleep is not disturbed.
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श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Bhu Varaha Swamy Temple

Bhu Varaha Swamy temple is a Hindu temple, located at Srimushnam, in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Constructed in the Dravidian style of architecture...


the temple is dedicated to Varaha (Bhu Varaha Swamy), the boar-avatar of the god Vishnu and his consort Lakshmi as Ambujavalli Thayar.

The temple had contributions from Medieval Cholas of the 10th century with later expansions by Thanjavur Nayak king Achuthappa Nayak.


A granite wall surrounds the temple, enclosing all the shrines and the temple tanks. There is a seven-tieredrajagopuram, the temple’s gateway tower.

Six daily rituals and three yearly festivals are held at the temple, of which the Chariot festival....


celebrated during the Tamil month of Vaikasi (April–May), being the most prominent. The festival also symbolises Hindu-Muslim unity in the region – the flag of the chariot is provided by Muslims; they take offerings from the temple and present to Allah in the mosques.


Source & Pic credit : Anusri
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
THE UNTOLD TALE OF THE LESSER KNOWN WARRIORS:JOGRAJ GURJAR & RAMPYARI GURJAR AND HOW DID THEY DEFEAT THE CRUELEST ISLAMIC INVADER, TIMUR LANG.

Timur Lang, was the founder of Timurid Empire. He was born in April 1336 CE, somewhere in central asia.


During his reign, he conquered Persia, Egypt, Central Asia and emerged as the most powerful and heinous ruler. He was a religious fanatic like the rest of the Islamic invaders who tried to invade India.

Timur Lang decided to invade India in 1398 as he heard about India's splendid wealth and had a desire to conquer India which his ancestor Genghis Khan couldn't do.


After Firoz Shah's demise in1388, Delhi Sultanate was in a state of political turmoil.During this time, Timur sent his grandson Pir Mohammad to attack Indian front. He invaded Multan&was able to defeat Iqbal Khan's brother but when he met with resistance,he asked help from Timur.


Iqbal Khan secured his hold on Delhi under Muhammad Tughluq after Firoz Shah died.
Timur provided the required back-up to his grandson with 100000 men approx. Timur sacked and plundered all the cities coming in his way &later in October 1398 reunited with his grandson.
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