1/ For anyone who is on the fence about @growclass, I remember the exact moment I was sitting in my car in the parking lot on September 9th, 2020 calculating on the phone what the ROI would need to be for me to join the program.

Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.

The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.

Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).

Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.

Mega Thread on Personal Finance 101

👇👇👇

Rule of 72 (Double Your Money)
Rule of 114 (Triple)
Rule of 144 (Quadruple)
Rule of 70 (Inflation)
4% Withdrawal Rule
100 - Minus Age Rule
10, 5, 3 Rule
50-30-20 Rule
3X Emergency Rule
40℅ EMI Rule
Life Insurance Rule

♻ Rule of 72

No. of yrs required to double your money at a given rate, U just divide 72 by interest rate
Eg, if U want to know how long it will take to double your money at 8% interest, divide 72 by 8 and get 9 yrs

At 6% rate, it will take 12 yrs
At 9% rate, it will take 8 yrs

📋Rule of 114

No. of years required to triple your money at a given rate, U just divide 114 by interest rate.

For example, if you want to know how long it will take to triple your money at 12% interest, divide 114 by 12 and get 9.5 years

At 6% interest rate, it will take 19yrs

🗒️ Rule of 144

No. of years required to, quadruple your money at a given rate, U just divide 144 by interest rate.

For eg, if U want to know how long it will take to quadruple your money at 12% interest, divide 144 by 12 and get 12 yrs

At a 6% interest rate, it will take 24yrs

🗒️ Rule of 70

Divide 70 by the current inflation rate to know how fast the value of your investment will get reduced to half its present value.

The inflation rate of 7% will reduce the value of your money to half in 10 years.

Jess Phillips is funded by a Luxury Property Developer behind a number of controversial schemes. The register of financial interests lists a donation totaling £6,000 from Court Consultants. Plus a £8,000 a year sideline from the Tories. #LabourLeaks

Jess Phillips MP’s office is funded by a property developer criticised for not including enough affordable housing in his tower blocks. #LabourLeaks

Court Consultants is controlled by Birmingham property developer Anthony McCourt. He is a longstanding financial backer of Jess Phillips. In 2017, Anthony McCourt also gave £3,000 to Phillips to help with the running of her local Labour party.

Councils try to oblige property developers to build some affordable housing in their new buildings in return for planning permission. But recent developments involving Antony McCourt failed to meet even these limited attempts by councils to increase the amount lower-cost housing.

McCourt runs his developments through his other company, Court Collaboration. Recent Court Collaboration schemes have also been criticised for not containing enough affordable housing. #LabourLeaks

@JSG_54 I’d like to make a list of which ones and when they were put on the payroll from the attorneys. Also, others like Caleb Alexander and Tim Munson. Anyone that has had their hand in policy or publicly demonized pain meds and then profited off of litigation, get em on the list.

Here’s #ArtVanZee

#AnnaLembke

#DaneshMazloomdoost

#AndrewKolodny

My investing style: Buy and hold high-quality businesses

Here are 15 traits that tell me I've found a great business ⬇️

1/ Recurring Revenue

Types:

Business Services $MCO
Contracts $AMT
Consumables $MNST
Exchange $MKTX
Franchise $WINA
Membership $TDOC
Platform $ETSY
Razor/blade $DXCM
Real Estate $STOR
SaaS, PaaS, IaaS $TWLO, $NOW, $FSLY
Subscription $NFLX
Tollbooth $BIP

2/ Recession-Proof Demand

Great companies sell products/services that are in-demand in good times and bad

That allows them to grow regardless of what is happening in the broader economy

3/ Organic Growth

"Organic" growth: Growing by increasing sales of internally developed products/services

"Inorganic" growth: Growing from mergers & acquisitions

Organic Growth > Inorganic Growth

4/ High & Expanding Gross Margin

Indicates that the company’s products/services create a huge amount of value for the customer

Rising gross margin also indicates pricing power