Follow up post on GME answering common questions (e.g. if they short is still >100% of float, wouldn't that cause another short

1/ Official short interest is only posted twice per month. Daily estimates by data firms (e.g. S3 Partners) can be inaccurate, especially if there is high intraday volume and volatility
2/ De-grossing suggests that hedge funds facing existential loss likely to have already covered.

Short positions opened in last 3 days was ~35M shares all above $300 suggesting that the cost basis has been reset. The original shorters have likely covered already.
3/ There is a staggering 1.38m put options open vs. 233k call options. This 1.15m net put exposure means that MM likely owning ~11m shares short for delta hedging. These shares are unlikely to be squeezed
4/ Short squeeze and gamma squeeze likely to have already occurred. Continued share price increases likely driven by new investors joining WSB/RH. Buying of GME has now expanded beyond US to other countries.
5/ Hedge funds, long/short and high frequency traders likely to have also joined the trade. At some point, forward momentum will decline as buyer pool depletes.
6/ Gamma squeeze is a one-off. Market makers will be more prepared now with heighted risk management.
7/ In summary, it is dangerous to assume what has happened in the past will continue in the future. Should always re-test your initial assumptions

More from Finance

THREAD: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics in the central Party-State bureaucracy?

For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing

TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)

https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2


Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year

All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress

Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)

https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2


Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office

He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022

Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)


Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office

He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years

Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)


Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012

Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)

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