New from me:

I’m launching my Forecasting For SEO course next month.

It’s everything I’ve learned, tried and tested about SEO forecasting.

The course: https://t.co/bovuIns9OZ

Following along 👇

Why forecasting?

Last year I launched https://t.co/I6osuvrGAK to provide reliable forecasts to SEO teams.

It went crazy.

I also noticed an appetite for learning more about forecasting and reached out on Twitter to gauge interest: https://t.co/SrPFtXnRI3
The interest encouraged me to make a start...

I’ve also been inspired by what others are doing: @tom_hirst, @dvassallo and @azarchick 👏👏

And their guts to be build so openly in public.
So here goes it...

In the last 2 years I’ve only written 3 blog posts on my site.

- Probabilistic thinking in SEO
- Rethinking technical SEO audits
- How to deliver better SEO strategies.

I only write when I feel like I’ve got something to say.

https://t.co/WyVLANB7b5
With forecasting, I’ve got something to say. 💭

There are mixed feelings about forecasting in the SEO industry.

Uncertainty is everywhere. Algorithm updates impacting rankings, economic challenges impacting demand.

It’s difficult. 😩
It’s easier to say forecasting is impossible.

But forecasts are an expectation. You often need them to win pitches, or to get budget.

My aim with the course isn’t to shy away from the challenges. But to show you how you can embrace uncertainty & communicate it.
COURSE OUTLINE:

I got some excellent feedback on topics to include from a few experienced SEOs. 🙌

I added all of the feedback to @NotionHQ and consolidated the most common feedback into a broad outline - including some topics I was keen on including.
COURSE FORMAT:

I’ve opted for video vs an e-book. There’ll be some templates included, so it’s just easier to do video demos.

I’ve already started creating slides in @BeautifulAI_ and they’ll be exported to Keynote on final edit for transitions and subtle animation. 😎
COURSE PRICING:

I like the idea of reach > revenue shared by @tom_hirst

Pre-launch pricing will be $29 and will increase to $59 for launch. 🚀 https://t.co/4Ljq5jYsyA
RELEASE DATE:

👇👇👇

15 February 2021 🔥

👆👆👆

Website: https://t.co/bovuIns9OZ

Gumroad: https://t.co/rNDABYN6oT

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It appears to be a combination of some of these factors, along with others not mentioned here. Ibn Khaldun’s analysis appears to be a good foundation to go off. [Thread]


Ibn Khaldun makes an important distinction between what he calls العُمران الحضري and العمران البدوي, which, for convenience’s sake, I’ll translate as urban civilisation and rural/Bedouin lifestyle.

He notes that the rural world is largely nomadic, and, as such, Bedouins build character traits that assist the survivalist lifestyle — e.g. the fact that they have to kill snakes that might pop up at any time during their travels helps them build courage and bravery.

The lack of stability and a proper settlement means they don’t really have the luxury of sitting down to let their minds wonder around. They thus build a preservation mindset, which manifests itself through emphasis on memorisation and transmission.

Inhabitants of urban world, on the other hand, are largely settled and established. This means they face less attacks from snakes, lions or danger of human attack from other tribes. Thus, they don’t build the courage and bravery of the Bedouins.

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