BC EDUCATION
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

It's 2021! Time for a crash course in four terms that I often see mixed up when people talk about testing: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value.

These terms help us talk about how accurate a test is, but from different viewpoints. 1/

 Viewpoint 1 is about the status of the person taking the test. Are they infected, or not infected? How good is the test at identifying these people? That's sensitivity/specificity. 2/
A test that is very *sensitive* will be very good at accurately identifying people who are infected.

A test that is very *specific* will be very good at accurately ruling out infection in people who are not infected. 3/
Viewpoint 2 is about the result of the test itself. It says positive or negative (or detected or not detected). How much can those results be trusted? Did the positive or negative actually "predict" the situation correctly? 4/
A test that has a high *positive predictive value* means you can really trust a positive. Most of the positives that come out do really mean that person is infected. 5/
A test that has a high *negative predictive value* means you can really trust a negative. Most of the negatives that come out do really mean that person is not infected. 6/
Let's think about a population of 100 people. 10 are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes Covid-19). All take a test.

Of the 10 people infected, 8 test + (true +), 2 test - (false -).
Of the 90 people uninfected, 89 test - (true -), 1 tests + (false +). 7/
The sensitivity of the test is true positives/(true positives + false negatives): 8/10. The denominator is, again, the status of the person: out of all the infected people, how many did the test catch? 80%. The test has a sensitivity of 80%. 8/
The specificity of the test is true negatives/(true negatives + false positives): 89/90. Out of all the uninfected people, the test correctly identified 98.9% of them. The test has a specificity of 98.9%. 9/
The denominator changes for ____ predictive values.

The test's positive predictive value is true positives/(true positives + false positives): 8/9, or 88.9%. It's the proportion of positives, out of all the positives, that were accurate. 10/
The test's negative predictive value is true negatives/(true negatives + false negatives): 89/91, or 97.8%. It's the proportion of negatives, out of all the negatives, that were accurate. 11/
So when you see that a test's specificity was 98.9%, for example, that doesn't actually, by itself, tell you the number of false positives that occurred.

It's also why specificity and negative predictive values for a test can be totally different numbers! 12/
That's it! Ta for now! 13/13

More from Education

Dr. Theresa Chapple
Dr. Theresa Chapple
@Theresa_Chapple
My thoughts about Covid in schools-
Our studies are crap. We haven't put appropriate resources into studying this. Merging "in-person school" v "remote school" across the country makes little sense since there's so much heterogeneity in what "in-person school" looks like. 🧵

A teacher in Louisiana in an area with high rates of covid & in-person school, has a class with just 2 students in it. The entire school has 37 students and 12 staff, in a building that can hold hundreds.
Should this school's data be merged with a school that's fully open?

How would merging such disparate data, and everything in-between impact our understanding of Covid in schools? What about when we compare it to the rates in children who are in virtual school?

Things often not considered that should be... Are kids in pods? Are kids doing virtual school in community centers/ churches/ other group settings? Are youth sports or other extracurricular school activities (music, etc) happening in-person. Heterogeneity exist in this group too.

What's asymptomatic testing of children in the community like? We know that children are under-tested, how can we say something is safe if we are NOT TESTING children at the same rate as the rest of the population. We can't embrace the "don't ask (test) don't tell" apprach here.
EDUCATION
Tes
Tes
@tes
Given @GavinWilliamson failure to apologise this week for 'last-minute' decisions on schools policy during the pandemic, we thought it might be useful to put to together one handy thread of every U-turn from the @educationgovuk since April last

Free school meals will come up a lot in this thread, but here is the first governmental U-turn before the Easter Holidays. (2/43) #FSM

.@educationgovuk then decided not to fund #FSM in the following half-term break, they changed their minds after a public outcry.

Taking a break from #FSM, we head straight into the #Alevels2020 exams debacle, with Scotland’s grade U-turn putting pressure on the @educationgovuk (4/43)

Ministers in Westminster were determined not to U-turn
EDUCATION
Advertisement
Chris Foley
Chris Foley
@HT_StMonicas
Grade Awarding 2021 - a thread.
1. For pupils and parents; it sounds daft but there isn’t much you can control right now. Teacher will play the main role in awarding grades, and there may well be some time or formal exam for subjects. But we don’t know exactly what yet.

2. What we do know is that all work pupils have done, their resilience over such a difficult time, their drive to keep going will make a difference to them. It’s never been more important for pupils to keep going, and keep engaging with the provision a school provides.

3. To our pupils? Have faith that the work you are doing will pay off. Please don’t lose heart right now. We love you lots and we all want you to excel. We are always here for you.

4. For school leaders - we need to build a year story. Right now they need a narrative that stresses the need to keep engaging in lessons. A letter every two weeks won’t get that job done. It’s never been more that pupils and parents feel connected to a school and we have clear

5. Communications cycles. Media - twitter/YouTube etc are vital tools for keeping our pupils and parents connected to school. This news cycle is vital for building a cultural expectation of what will happen when pupils set foot again in our school buildings.
EDUCATION
Yaneer Bar-Yam
Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
In Europe, schools are closing as studies show schoolchildren can play a significant role in spreading infections

1/



As U.S. authorities debate whether to keep schools open, a consensus is emerging in Europe that children are a considerable factor in the spread of Covid-19—and more countries are shutting schools for the first time since the spring.

2/

Closures have been announced recently in the U.K., Germany, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on concerns about a more infectious variant of the virus first detected in the U.K. and rising case counts despite lockdowns.

3/

While the debate continues, recent studies and outbreaks show that schoolchildren, even younger ones, can play a significant role in spreading infections.

4/

"The recent shutdown of schools was especially dramatic in England. U.K. PM Boris Johnson initially planned to keep elementary schools there open after the Christmas break, but changed course amid soaring infections. After one day, schools were closed until further notice

5/
EDUCATION
Sarah Allen
Sarah Allen
@Mssarahmssarah
For months, but especially after the new CDC school recs came out, supporters of reopening all schools now have been peddling the idea that schools across the country have been open all year successfully. This argument is used to push for ALL schools to be opened now.

A long 🧵

Though some schools in the U.S. are open & doing well with safety protocols, many places used as examples of opening success have profoundly unsafe schools & are neglecting covid safety. Some have been lucky not to have outbreaks and other issues--it's not that they're safe.

In the last few weeks, I've been in touch with teachers in Ohio, Florida, Texas, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Utah, and Pennsylvania.

(Thanks to @eduwonkette_jen @GeoRebekah and @saribethrose for the threads and forums that have helped me meet SO MANY teachers this year).

I collected the accounts of dozens of teachers. Obviously, this isn't an exhaustive list and it isn't a study! It's what teachers on the ground in some states are experiencing. And it's easy to see why so many in our profession are so frightened this year.

Here's the list:

There are currently open schools in the US that are being hailed as "successful" that have:

▪️no safety protocols at all besides contact cleaning, in some districts
▪️some districts with no mask mandate
▪️classes in windowless rooms, some with full classes of 20-30
EDUCATION

You May Also Like

Pietro Invernizzi
Pietro Invernizzi
@pinverrr
0/ Thread: 11 tips on international expansion for growing startups 🌎 based on last night's conversation with @scott_sage & @daedalium at @_TheFamily

1/ Mindset: Someone from NYC won't think about it twice before taking a 6h flight to the Valley for business. Why do Europeans perceive a 2-hour flight / train ride as such a big deal? Travel more, there's plenty of opportunities around the corner you know nothing about ✈️

2/ If you spent more than a month considering whether to expand abroad or not, just try. What’s the worst that can happen? You can always do a big international launch, fail, try again and communicate it as a big thing every time - no one will care / remember the previous time :)

3/ Europeans perceive int'l expansion as a massive cost and therefore spend 1/10th of what US startups spend on it every year. Invest more, but keep a startup mentality: launch from home first, assess the market & then save costs as you go in, e.g. stay at a friend's; not a hotel

4/ Whilst not excessively risky / costly, expanding internationally is HARD. It's like starting up all over again, finding Product Market Fit all over again & building your team all over again. PMF will have to be your #1 priority, and an indicator of whether to keep going or not
ALL
\u06de\U0001f41a\u06de
۞🐚۞
@DRenaissancMan
NĀRADA & HIS BHAKTI-SŪTRAS :
Bhakti – Love Divine :-
Of Love Divine (Sūtra 1 to 6)

All our philosophical textbooks are written out by the great 'rishis' and 'thinkers' in the form of sūtras.
The term, ‘sūtra’, means ‘string’ – the string on which the arguments &
#Thread


thoughts are strung together to become an enchanting garland of ideas.
This is the philosophy of devotion, of love for 'Paramatma' stands today attributed to the Devarṣi Nārada.
He works everywhere as friend, philosopher and guide, to all devotees.
Let's begin the journey !


NĀRADA & HIS BHAKTI-SŪTRAS :
Bhakti – Love Divine :-
Of Love Divine (Sūtra 1 to 6)

Sūtra 1
अथातो भक्तिं व्याख्यास्यामः॥ १॥
Now, the doctrine of devotion we shall expound.
After having developed all the qualifications necessary for the practice of devotion (atha), the student


feels no spiritual satisfaction, and therefore (ataḥ), he must now diligently walk the path of devotion. According to Rāmānuja, the teacher of viśiṣṭādvaita, there are seven qualifications necessary in a seeker who plans to pursue devotion. They are:


(1) Discrimination in food (viveka), (2) Freedom from desire (vimukha), (3) Practice (abhyāsa), (4) Habit of doing good to others (kriyā), (5) Purity in thought, word and deed, non-violence, charity, and such other virtues (kalyāṇa), (6) Cheerfulness (anavasāda), and (7) Absence
RELIGION
Advertisement
Sara Benincasa
Sara Benincasa
@SaraJBenincasa
Spent a quaint half hour in a cafe listening to a guy yell at his dad after his dad said that the women Trump molested wanted it: "Dad, that's like saying the Jews who died in the Holocaust were asking for it!" ENJOY YOUR TERRIBLE FAMILIES THIS WEEK!

"Mom, has a man ever touched you without your consent?"
"Of course."
"Did you report it?"
"No."
"Dad, your WIFE has been through this!"

Dad was unmoved and told the guy to stop arguing with him.

At this point we learned the boy child has allergies.

I forgot to remark upon the presence of the very cute grandson, who was very small and gave not one shit about the yelling. I believe a sister or aunt was present and feeling very stressed. I wanted to hand her a Xanax or seven.

It was really hard to not jump in and say, "Sounds like you guys are going to have a fun meal tomorrow!" so they could unite in hatred against me, the outsider, and stop squabbling. Instead I exchanged glances with a nearby fellow lady patron, who also emotionally ate a cookie.

Anyway, I want to thank the random family for yelling about rape and the Holocaust in an Israeli cafe in the US of A today because it reminded me that while this country isn't the greatest, it is inevitably my stupid favorite and I am never, ever bored.
SOCIETY
Murray \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Murray 🇺🇸...
@Rothbard1776
NEW: @SidneyPowell1 radio interview w/ @toddeherman "The new report has a truckload of evidence of foreign interference in the election in it. That's what people seem to want to deny, even though the FBI & CISA ... issued an advisory and alert back on Oct. 30th & updated on

2/ Nov. 3rd, so for them to deny that now is absolutely absurd. Plus, we have an affidavit from an expert cyber-warfare [individual] who even shows the diagram of all the attacks coming in. We know that the VPN ... the Dominion people left those open and unencrypted on the night

3/ of the election, so that anybody could get in. We know that the packets of information went to Serbia [note: over 100 Dominion employees scrubbed there LinkedIn profiles of any affiliation with the company after the election, many of whom were in Serbia], Liechtenstein,

4/ Spain, Venezuela, Hunan, China & Hong Kong. There was traffic all over into our election system that is supposed to be self-contained, not accessible by the internet at all. We have witnesses who document that it was connected to the internet. We have a study out of

5/ [the Dominion voting system in Antrim] MI, they know that it was connected to the internet. They erased their audit files & their adjudication files, where they dumped over 68% of their ballots into a bin that they call "adjudication" [that would've been thousands + thousands
POLITICS , ELECTIONFRAUD
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
RISHI BHRINGI AND ARDHA-NAREESHWAR SHIVA

Rishi Bhringi was a devoted bhakt of Mahadev. However, in his devotion to Shiva, he ignored Mata Parvati.

Once, he visited Kailasha along with other Rishis. All the Rishis did parikrama of Shiva and Parvati both except Rishi Bhringi.


The same situation continued whenever Rishi Bhringi visited Kailasha. Mata Parvati decided to teach him that Shiva and Parvati are one and inseparable.
So on one such visit, Mata Parvati sat on the left lap of Mahadev when Rishi Bhringi came.


Seeing this, Rishi Bhringi took the form of a bee(some say bird) and did pradakshina/ parikrama only around Shiva’s head and ignored Ma Parvati.
Angered Mata took away the Shakti from his body. Rishi lost his blood and flesh and was left with a bare skeletal form.


Seeing him in such a situation where he was unable to support himself, Shiva granted a third leg to him.
Shiva then fused one half of his body with that of Ma Parvati and appeared as Ardha Nareeshwar.
Rishi Bhringi finally realised that Shiv and Shakti are one and the same.
🙏🏻
ALL