1/ Thoughts on Disney's Analyst Day.

Obviously a longtime Disney D2C bull; I was astounded, shocked by slate's quality, range, volume.

This is Disney going beyond a digital "Vault" plus originals. It is saying all of your favorite stories, more,

2/ Not just a stronger Disney+, but one that hugely raises the tablestakes of competition, growth, press coverage, notability.

Paramount+ plans new Star Trek year round. Feels quaint now. Peacock will have a Jurassic Park + Fast series eventually. Cool.

https://t.co/yaH4k4L1GA
3/ In "Content, Cars, and Comparisons in the 'Streaming Wars'", I wrote about how Disney $1B in content spend gets several billion of equivalent spend through its resonance

Mando was a top 5 show per @ParrotAnalytics in 2019. Disney thinks it can have 10 "Top 5s" a year.
4/ Trade talk can be misleading, but it takes only a cursory look at Twitter, the most popular shows of the past decade (Walking Dead, Thrones, Mando, Stranger Things), Disney's dominance at the box office (8 of top 10 in 2019) and wonder how to beat this

https://t.co/t8l0tQvuu1
5/ Roadmap doesn't just suck oxygen out of streaming wars (as Netflix did from 2014-18), it will enable Disney+ to rapidly grow its price

If I pay $54 a year to use Disney+ for 2 months, what happens when it's year-round?

Worth $15 month in 2023.

https://t.co/wyLkyzfqi8
6/ Disney obviously sandbagged its original 60-90MM estimate, but elevating this forecast to 230-260MM on the same time horizon, one year in, has to be the largest elevation at a company of this size... ever?
7/ Disney spoke about how much more popular Disney+ was with households without kids. That's key.

At the same time, half of those I know with kids... had set-up iPads for their kids to watch a four hour corporate event... out of enthusiasm for Disney+. That's unreplicable
8/ This is an impossibly great company. And still surprised.

From Oct 2019:
Disney, IP, and "Returns to Marginal Affinity"
https://t.co/8Rapc2gHi4
https://t.co/KDwt3Lh2c9
9/ Also important is to note the extraordinary talent Disney was able to attract despite (1) Capped backends; (2) IP constraints; (3) Disney+ centric distribution.

Darren Aronofsky making Disney+ docuseries? Patty Jenkins doing Star Wars? Amy Adams doing an Enchanted 2?

More from Economy

1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

You May Also Like

So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.