Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.
This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
Happy #JobsDay. 8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts' center:
+432,000 jobs
6.8% unemployment, tick down from 6.9%
But lots of reason to expect weaker jobs growth.
Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.
This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
For comparison, during the Great Recession, we lost fewer than 9 million jobs.
Deceleration is clear.
The private sector added 344K, this is much weaker than recent months' growth, less than half of last month.
Fiscal policy is on track to be negative in Q4, contracting the economy.
This is insane.
https://t.co/8zJ48EafC7
Been basically stalled for months.
Reflects unemployed stopping search not finding work, due to rising public health threat making many jobs riskier.
These folks are saving lives & health but market won't pay them for that work. Govt should.
In manufacturing, workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, & overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours.
1) the labor market is stalling with job losses comparable to the bottom of the Great Recession.
2) many jobs are increasingly dangerous & we should pull back from some econ activity to preserve health.
Instead, 12-13 million Americans out of work through no fault of their own are about to lose their insurance benefits on the day after Christmas.
https://t.co/bN8zddMhMB
\U0001f6a8 This is a time bomb ticking in plain view that will blow up the stability, health, and well-being of many millions of American families &, consequently, damage the macroeconomy and everyone else.\U0001f6a8https://t.co/m2ooWo880V
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) October 28, 2020
\U0001f6a8The number of American households expecting to lose employment income rose 18% over the last 2 weeks \U0001f6a8 #HouseholdPulseSurvey
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) December 2, 2020
Millions expect loss in next 4 weeks: survey period
75.6 : Nov11-Nov23
64.2 : Oct28-Nov9
59.7 : Oct14-Oct26
58.3 : Sep30-Oct12
59.2 : Sep16-Sep28 https://t.co/MYi9hVSMha
https://t.co/xZ1HKAHb0f
Expectations worsening.
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) December 3, 2020
The share of small businesses expecting that, in the next 6 months, they will need to identify & hire new employees is falling.
Small businesses increasingly say they need public health & liquidity. pic.twitter.com/E8y7wzeYE9
Unless the federal govt acts, about twice that many people will be kicked off unemployment insurance on Dec 26.
Pre-haunting Ebenezer Scrooge would approve.
They are there for us & we need to show up for them. If you are a labor economist or care about workers & employment, follow & join @Friends_of_BLS.
@snaidunl & I have a new report out today @rooseveltinst.
https://t.co/jHIK2xXWj4
\u203c\ufe0f NEW from @rooseveltinst \u203c\ufe0f @snaidunl @aaronsojourner explain why, despite public perception, a #skillsgap doesn\u2019t explain rising economic inequality or persistent race and gender inequality. \U0001f447\U0001f3fd\U0001f447\U0001f3fd https://t.co/GtVqi8PMbt
— Katie Kirchner (@kkirch92) December 4, 2020
More from Economy
The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.
I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.
Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.
In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.
(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)
Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.
The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.
There is no relationship b/w deficits & interest rates in the US & many other advanced economies. Centuries of dynamic institution building underpin our reserve currency status that allows rates to be a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy not credit risk 1/3
— Dr. Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) January 26, 2021
Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.
In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.
(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)
Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.
The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
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🌿𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓 : 𝑫𝒉𝒓𝒖𝒗𝒂 & 𝑽𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒏𝒖
Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W
Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela
The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.
One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.
Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W
Prabhu says i reside in the heart of my bhakt.
— Right Singh (@rightwingchora) December 21, 2020
Guess the event. pic.twitter.com/yFUmbfe5KL
Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela
The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.
One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.
Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹
I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):
The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹
Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹
References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹
I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):
The famous \u201cLucy\u201d, an early ancestor of modern humans (Australopithecus) that lived 3.2 million years ago, and was discovered in 1974 in Ethiopia, displayed in the national museum in Addis Ababa \U0001f1ea\U0001f1f9 pic.twitter.com/N3oWqk1SW2
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) November 9, 2018
The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹
Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹
References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹