More from Sahil Sharma
Most of market does not beat the market by a lot. Which is alright.
In any activity the distribution of outcomes follows bell curve (Gaussian).
Those that are willing to put in effort reap the benefits. 😀
Otherwise we always have option to go for hard working PM's/etf/mf
For lot of consumer facing cos scuttlebutt is actually not that hard. We find reviews online (eg: app reviews on playstore, or reviews of products on social media)
B2B is hard to scuttlebutt, need to reach out to people in co and hope that are willing to talk. Connections help
In any activity the distribution of outcomes follows bell curve (Gaussian).
Those that are willing to put in effort reap the benefits. 😀
Otherwise we always have option to go for hard working PM's/etf/mf
Things to need to do before you buy a stock. I wonder though how many investors have the ability for item numbers 5, 6 & 7. I don't pic.twitter.com/E5AMVxbpNb
— Prashanth (@Prashanth_Krish) August 16, 2021
For lot of consumer facing cos scuttlebutt is actually not that hard. We find reviews online (eg: app reviews on playstore, or reviews of products on social media)
B2B is hard to scuttlebutt, need to reach out to people in co and hope that are willing to talk. Connections help
Given the immense interest in this #investment #process thread about how to get investment ideas, thought of creating a logical follow-up 🧵
Given that I have an idea & some sense for valuation & growth, how do i construct a portfolio?
If you like the thread, plz RT.
First thing worth mentioning is that I am only describing my own process. Others can follow a different process which could work for them.
Opposite of a good idea can also be a good idea
Before understanding the process itself, it is important to understand the problems the process is being designed to solve for. What are the key hurdles or troubles I have faced in designing my PF.
Hurdles
1. At any given point in time (in the past) i have only known deeply about 5% of the listed universe in India, or lower. When I say know deeply I mean read an annual report, an investor presentation, a concall, understood why the business is how it is.
2. I only started my corporate life 4 years ago, so my pf size is small compared to yearly savings. This means that I need to deploy large incremental capital every year at least for next few years. This cant be a buy & track pf, this is a keep buying & tracking for a few yrs pf
Given that I have an idea & some sense for valuation & growth, how do i construct a portfolio?
If you like the thread, plz RT.
A lot of people ask: how do you find companies to invest in? very good question.
— Sahil Sharma (@sahil_vi) July 6, 2021
How did you find RACL, Pix?
Creating this ad-hoc thread to share my process.
if you like it, please RT to benefit maximum investors. \U0001f64f
First thing worth mentioning is that I am only describing my own process. Others can follow a different process which could work for them.
Opposite of a good idea can also be a good idea
Before understanding the process itself, it is important to understand the problems the process is being designed to solve for. What are the key hurdles or troubles I have faced in designing my PF.
Hurdles
1. At any given point in time (in the past) i have only known deeply about 5% of the listed universe in India, or lower. When I say know deeply I mean read an annual report, an investor presentation, a concall, understood why the business is how it is.
2. I only started my corporate life 4 years ago, so my pf size is small compared to yearly savings. This means that I need to deploy large incremental capital every year at least for next few years. This cant be a buy & track pf, this is a keep buying & tracking for a few yrs pf
More from Ds
1/
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.
2/
Recently, I watched 2 probability "mini-lectures" on YouTube by Nassim Taleb.
One ~10 min lecture covered SD and MAD. The other ~6 min lecture covered Fat Tails.
In these ~16 mins, @nntaleb shared so many useful nuggets that I had to write this thread to unpack them.
3/
For those curious, here are the YouTube links to the lectures:
SD and MAD (~10 min): https://t.co/0TwubymdE6
Fat Tails (~6 min):
4/
The first thing to understand is the concept of a Random Variable.
In essence, a Random Variable is a number that depends on a random event.
For example, when we roll a die, we get a Random Variable -- a number from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
5/
Every Random Variable has a Probability Distribution.
This tells us all the possible values the Random Variable can take, and their respective probabilities.
For example, when we roll a fair die, we get a Random Variable with this Probability Distribution:
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.
2/
Recently, I watched 2 probability "mini-lectures" on YouTube by Nassim Taleb.
One ~10 min lecture covered SD and MAD. The other ~6 min lecture covered Fat Tails.
In these ~16 mins, @nntaleb shared so many useful nuggets that I had to write this thread to unpack them.
3/
For those curious, here are the YouTube links to the lectures:
SD and MAD (~10 min): https://t.co/0TwubymdE6
Fat Tails (~6 min):
4/
The first thing to understand is the concept of a Random Variable.
In essence, a Random Variable is a number that depends on a random event.
For example, when we roll a die, we get a Random Variable -- a number from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
5/
Every Random Variable has a Probability Distribution.
This tells us all the possible values the Random Variable can take, and their respective probabilities.
For example, when we roll a fair die, we get a Random Variable with this Probability Distribution:
You May Also Like
I hate when I learn something new (to me) & stunning about the Jeff Epstein network (h/t MoodyKnowsNada.)
Where to begin?
So our new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was "longtime lawyer and confidant of...Robert Maxwell," Ghislaine Maxwell's Dad.
"Pisar was one of the last people to speak to Maxwell, by phone, probably an hour before the chairman of Mirror Group Newspapers fell off his luxury yacht the Lady Ghislaine on 5 November, 1991." https://t.co/DAEgchNyTP
OK, so that's just a coincidence. Moving on, Anthony Blinken "attended the prestigious Dalton School in New York City"...wait, what? https://t.co/DnE6AvHmJg
Dalton School...Dalton School...rings a
Oh that's right.
The dad of the U.S. Attorney General under both George W. Bush & Donald Trump, William Barr, was headmaster of the Dalton School.
Donald Barr was also quite a
I'm not going to even mention that Blinken's stepdad Sam Pisar's name was in Epstein's "black book."
Lots of names in that book. I mean, for example, Cuomo, Trump, Clinton, Prince Andrew, Bill Cosby, Woody Allen - all in that book, and their reputations are spotless.
Where to begin?
So our new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was "longtime lawyer and confidant of...Robert Maxwell," Ghislaine Maxwell's Dad.
"Pisar was one of the last people to speak to Maxwell, by phone, probably an hour before the chairman of Mirror Group Newspapers fell off his luxury yacht the Lady Ghislaine on 5 November, 1991." https://t.co/DAEgchNyTP
OK, so that's just a coincidence. Moving on, Anthony Blinken "attended the prestigious Dalton School in New York City"...wait, what? https://t.co/DnE6AvHmJg
Dalton School...Dalton School...rings a
Oh that's right.
The dad of the U.S. Attorney General under both George W. Bush & Donald Trump, William Barr, was headmaster of the Dalton School.
Donald Barr was also quite a
Donald Barr had a way with words. pic.twitter.com/JdRBwXPhJn
— Rudy Havenstein, listening to Nas all day. (@RudyHavenstein) September 17, 2020
I'm not going to even mention that Blinken's stepdad Sam Pisar's name was in Epstein's "black book."
Lots of names in that book. I mean, for example, Cuomo, Trump, Clinton, Prince Andrew, Bill Cosby, Woody Allen - all in that book, and their reputations are spotless.