BC DS

Sahil Sharma
@sahil_vi 4 years, 1 month ago 483 views

Yup, autocorrect. 😅

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This thread is to create awareness on how to use
https://t.co/3jeqlXO0QH

Please note that i am not officially associated with website. Only an active contributor & hope to benefit from network effects of interested investors actively contributing on platform.

https://t.co/64yVScplqi is above all else a community of like minded investors who wants to actively engage in understandin at a fundamental level & separate wheat from the chaff.

Develop an understanding of the biz, industry, competitive intensity, management, valuation

Website was created > 10 years ago. Early users are seasoned investors & i personally look to learn greatly by following their footprints across the website.

There are broadly speaking 4-5 types of "threads" or discussion places across the website.

1. Featured discussions (hall of fame, showcase discussions, learning).

These enable investor to level up the most. These discussions are a showcase for the website itself.
These are also a great starting point. Since VP is not a course, feel free to traverse them in any order

Sahil Sharma
@sahil_vi

Lets discuss how to invest in equity directly, the end to end picture, taking as an example my largest holding: RACL ⚙️ 🖥️

🧵🧵👇👇

I am not a financial advisor & please don’t treat any of this as financial advice. Also, please dont think of whatever i say here as gospel or the absolute truth. This is only my perception of the truth.

I am not your Guru.

A little bit of framework/paradigm building up-front, please bear with me.

Here is the 1 tweet summary. 1000s of hours of reading, writing & contemplation.
Then, decades of patience. If we get both the steps roughly right, then some 💰💰.

The first step a Direct Equity investor with little knowledge has to do is to perceive their world accurately.

We do this by seeing interviews by experienced investors, books they're writing & reading company communications.

When we perceive our world through reading & listening, we go from being an investor with little knowledge to an investor with some knowledge. We are building mental models by learning from experienced investors

See how many our investor became :D

Sahil Sharma
@sahil_vi

One key learning from @VijayKedia1 Sir:

Many of the cos he invested in: vaibhav global, Tejas networks, sudarshan chemicals he was tracking for 4-5 years before he decided to invest. Wants to pull the trigger near the bottom of biz cycle

Patience

Sahil Sharma
@sahil_vi

what better way to start sunday than a #kilpest thread: a classic peter lynch pick & shovel investment for the diagnostics sector. If you like the thread, please retweet this tweet to help educate max investors. 🙏🙏

Which one of these 4 companies should I make next thread on?
— Sahil Sharma (@sahil_vi) June 14, 2021

Before I dive into Kilpest, some words on microcap investing. Everyone **needs** to be aware of what they are signing up for.

Two interviews from @varinder_bansal sir’s Omkara capital with very successful microcap investors (one with @iancassel sir: https://t.co/WDSOOIcUn8 ...

@iancassel & one with @hiddengemsindia sir: https://t.co/iC8iKOsKWz) do a wonderful job explaining all the landmines & things to keep in mind. Do watch these, please before you buy any #microcap

@iancassel @hiddengemsindia My own take is that one has to create a diversified PF of uncorrelated microcaps (if you'd typically invest in 5, make it 10 and so forth). Understand that liquidity risks will always remain.

Sahil Sharma
@sahil_vi

Given the immense interest in this #investment #process thread about how to get investment ideas, thought of creating a logical follow-up 🧵

Given that I have an idea & some sense for valuation & growth, how do i construct a portfolio?

If you like the thread, plz RT.

A lot of people ask: how do you find companies to invest in? very good question.

How did you find RACL, Pix?

Creating this ad-hoc thread to share my process.

if you like it, please RT to benefit maximum investors. \U0001f64f
— Sahil Sharma (@sahil_vi) July 6, 2021

First thing worth mentioning is that I am only describing my own process. Others can follow a different process which could work for them.

Opposite of a good idea can also be a good idea

Before understanding the process itself, it is important to understand the problems the process is being designed to solve for. What are the key hurdles or troubles I have faced in designing my PF.

Hurdles
1. At any given point in time (in the past) i have only known deeply about 5% of the listed universe in India, or lower. When I say know deeply I mean read an annual report, an investor presentation, a concall, understood why the business is how it is.

2. I only started my corporate life 4 years ago, so my pf size is small compared to yearly savings. This means that I need to deploy large incremental capital every year at least for next few years. This cant be a buy & track pf, this is a keep buying & tracking for a few yrs pf

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10-K Diver
@10kdiver

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).

This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.

2/

Recently, I watched 2 probability "mini-lectures" on YouTube by Nassim Taleb.

One ~10 min lecture covered SD and MAD. The other ~6 min lecture covered Fat Tails.

In these ~16 mins, @nntaleb shared so many useful nuggets that I had to write this thread to unpack them.

3/

For those curious, here are the YouTube links to the lectures:

SD and MAD (~10 min): https://t.co/0TwubymdE6

Fat Tails (~6 min):

4/

The first thing to understand is the concept of a Random Variable.

In essence, a Random Variable is a number that depends on a random event.

For example, when we roll a die, we get a Random Variable -- a number from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

5/

Every Random Variable has a Probability Distribution.

This tells us all the possible values the Random Variable can take, and their respective probabilities.

For example, when we roll a fair die, we get a Random Variable with this Probability Distribution:

Santiago
@svpino

Beginners guide to start with machine learning.

What you need:

1. A programming language
2. A place to write and run code
3. A way to deal with data
4. A way to visualize results
5. A cool algorithm
6. An introductory course
7. A project to solve

Here are my recommendations.

Most people recommend Python to start.

I do too.

You can do machine learning with many different languages, but today, Python is the best option.

My advice: Get comfortable writing code before looking into machine learning.

You don't have to be a great developer to start.

But if you are, it helps.

Everything you know about building software is helpful to build machine learning systems.

Good developers have the odds in their favor.

"How much Python do I need to know before starting?"

If you ask, you aren't ready yet.

Ideal scenario: You should be comfortable building software. Most people get here within a year.

Let's move on to the 2nd item from the list: A place to write and run your code.

Get familiar with Google Colab.

• It's free.
• Requires no setup to start.
• It's available from anywhere.

Alternative: Kaggle.

Santiago
@svpino

The two main machine learning techniques used in the industry today:

1. Gradient Boosted Trees
2. Deep Learning

Focus your time learning Scikit-Learn, XGBoost, and a Deep Learning library like Keras or PyTorch and you'll get the most for your time.

If you need to deal with structured data: Scikit-Learn + XGBoost.

If you need to deal with unstructured data (perceptual tasks): Keras or PyTorch.

Of course, there are many more techniques that will be helpful, but if you focus on these you'll be maximizing your ability to deliver value in the short term.

Santiago
@svpino

10 machine learning questions you should be able to answer.

I started experimenting with a questionnaire before interviewing candidates. Applicants submit a video or written answers to apply for the position.

Thread: Let's look at 10 of these questions.

The questionnaire solves a couple of problems:

1. Weeds out candidates that aren't ready for the job.

2. It significantly cuts down the time we spend talking synchronously.

One problem: It requires extra time from the candidate before the phone interview.

Here are some numbers on a job posting before using the questionnaire:

• 249 applicants
• 13 good applications

That's only 5%.

This sucks.

Numbers after using the questionnaire:

• 44 applicants
• 21 good applications

That's 47%.

This is much better.

I look at it this way:

Sooner or later, I'll ask these questions, and the candidate will have to answer them.

I'd rather give them space and the opportunity to think about their answers without any pressure.

Those who can't or don't want to answer won't apply. That's fine.

Santiago
@svpino

I sat next to one of the smartest, most successful software engineers in the country for over 10 years.

Here's what I learned.

Fast is 10 times better than good.

9 out of 10 times, a "good enough" solution is all you need to unlock time, money, and attention.

Focus relentlessly on being first. Then take the time to be right.

Fast, then right.

Ship more frequently.

The faster you show your work to your users, the faster you'll hear their feedback, you'll adapt, and you'll ship again.

A question you should ask every day:

What can I do to ship this one day before planned?

Technical debt is a good thing.

Everyone hates technical debt. I think they don't know how to take advantage of it.

When used appropriately, technical debt means working on what truly matters and deferring anything that can wait.

No debt ⟶ You waited too long.

Ask, don't think.

People burn their time every day instead of asking for help.

You don't get extra points for working harder, especially when a little help will make you faster.

Time is your most valuable resource. Don't waste it.

Black movie goers know which movies are for us and which films aren’t. We really don’t like our stories being made into films that center (and humanize) people that hate us. The filmmakers/studio know that by naming the film “The Green Book”, black movie goers...

...are going to be expecting a story about black people trying to safely navigate the country (real history) and instead will get a white savior film. Like folks went to see Detroit thinking it was about the riots...

Anywhoo, I know Mahershela is fantastic in it. He was the best thing about the trailer. As rich as the history behind the creation of ‘The Green Book’ is/was, as amazing as Dr. Don Shirley’s story is, WHY is this film about a random, racist driver and his family?

This feeds into the ignorant anti-Black American stereotype of “Black Americans don’t have any culture/history/mythology” or whatever. That our stories are still both being used while simultaneously erased in 2018 is wild to me. It’s gonna clean up come award season. 🤦🏾‍♀️

And now, if black filmmakers WANTED to make a film about The Greenbook, guess what it can’t be called🙃. Just like if someone wanted to make a film about the actual Detroit riots, guess what it can’t be called? Then those filmmakers would run into...

Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1

SRI BANASHANKARI AMMAN, BANGALORE
#bharatmandir

Located in Southern Bangalore, this is one of the most popular places of worship in Bangalore City.
Devoted to Devi Banashankari, this shrine is visited specially during Rahukala which is believed to be an unfavorable time.

Somanna Shetty, a great devotee of Devi, brought this murti from Badami’s Banshankari Amma Kshetram.
It is said that many years ago, three ladies visited this shrine and requested the pujari to conduct puja for them. Since it was the inauspicious rahu kaal, the pujari refused.

However, upon their insistence, he conducted the puja. When he returned with prasadam, the ladies vanished. This made the people believe that they were none other than the Devi herself. Since then, the people perform poojas here during the Rahukaal.
@GunduHuDuGa

People use lemons as a diya. Lemons are cut from the centre and their pulps are removed, for pouring oil in them.
It is strongly believed that Devi removes all the troubles from the life of her devotees during the Rahukala although it is considered inauspicious for any pooja.

Priyanka (Astrology Gu...
@AstroAmigo

1

From today, we will memorize the names of 27 Nakshatras in Vedic Jyotish to never forget in life.

I will write 4 names. Repeat them in SAME sequence twice in morning, noon, evening. Each day, revise new names + recall all previously learnt names.

Pls RT if you are in.

2

Today's Nakshatras are:-

1. Ashwini - अश्विनी

2. Bharani - भरणी

3. Krittika - कृत्तिका

4. Rohini - रोहिणी

Ashwini - अश्विनी is the FIRST Nakshatra.

Repeat these names TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon and evening. Like this tweet if you have revised 8 times as told.

3

Today's Nakshatras are:-

5. Mrigashira - मृगशिरा

6. Ardra - आर्द्रा

7. Punarvasu - पुनर्वसु

8. Pushya - पुष्य

First recall previously learnt Nakshatras twice. Then recite these TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet only after doing so.

4

Today's Nakshatras are:-

9. Ashlesha - अश्लेषा

10. Magha - मघा

11. Purvaphalguni - पूर्वाफाल्गुनी

12. Uttaraphalguni - उत्तराफाल्गुनी

Purva means that comes before (P se Purva, P se pehele), and Uttara comes later.

Read next tweet too.

5

Purva, Uttara prefixes come in other Nakshatras too. Purva= pehele wala. Remember.

First recall previously learnt 8 Nakshatras twice. Then recite those in Tweet #4 TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet if you have read Tweets #4 & 5, both.

$Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193$

Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson

Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!

1. Yang

Meet Yang Ruifu, CCP's biological weapons expert https://t.co/JjB9TLEO95 via @Gnews202064
Interesting expose of China's top bioweapons expert who oversaw fake pangolin research
Paper 1: https://t.co/TrXESKLYmJ
Paper 2:https://t.co/9LSJTNCn3l
Pangolinhttps://t.co/2FUAzWyOcv pic.twitter.com/I2QMXgnkBJ
— Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193 (@BillyBostickson) October 11, 2020

2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!

3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W

4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from

$Gal Gur \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f1$

Gal Gur 🇮🇱...
@GalGur_

1/
Hello, my name is Gal,
I am an Israeli citizen, and I want to convey this urgent message to the world: Contrary to what you are told, Israel has not "returned to normal" in any way >>

2/ Moreover, despite the desire to create a setting as if there was a full and normal routine here - the Israeli Ministry of Health JUST RECOMMENDED TODAY TO EXTENT THE DECLARATION OF A “STATE OF EMERGENCY” in Israel >>

3/ to which is the foundation for coercion, violation of basic rights, severe discrimination under a "green mark (pass)", prolonged closure (Of about 5 months overall) and a lot of undemocratic and not “routine" restrictions. >

4/ If the situation in Israel had "returned to routine thanks to the astounding success of vaccines" then the "state of emergency" would not have continued.

5/ In fact, since the beginning of the "vaccination project" there has been only more intimidation and in many ways - even though the closure has been lifted, much more coercion.

Yup, autocorrect. 😅

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