"At the start of 2020, the dollar’s run had endured 100 years. That would have been reason to question how much longer it could continue." This crude instance of the gambler's fallacy is one of many reasons why I find Ruchir Sharma's FT piece unconvincing:
More from Crypto
1/ ERC-20 token standard approve() has caused an unnecessary cost of $53.8M for #Ethereum and #DeFi users
This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.
👇👇👇
2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.
3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.
You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.
4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter
5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.
👇👇👇
2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.
3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.
You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.
4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter
1/ I just spend my Saturday morning on a call with a crypto fund explaining to them how #Ethereum ERC-20 token approve() function works
— \U0001f42e Mikko Ohtamaa (@moo9000) August 29, 2020
I am too old for this shit. pic.twitter.com/7EYfOaRP5L
5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
1/ A thread on Nexgen’s Arrow & the #uranium cycle ($NXE)
2/ Given the scale and cost structure of Arrow, it makes sense that investors are intensely focused on its delivery timeline. This thread will discuss possible timelines, current market expectations (i.e., what’s “priced in”) & how different Arrow scenarios will impact the mkt.
3/ As you can see from the litany of responses to Michael’s tweet, there is great skepticism in the market regarding Arrow’s timeline. This is largely due to a bearish narrative conveyed by competing CEO’s whose assets only hold value if Arrow is substantially delayed.
4/ Those who played “King of the Hill” as a child would remember that it is the person at the top who is constantly attacked, not the kid sitting at the bottom of the hill in the mud. No one cares enough about that kid to attack them. This is a good parable for $NXE & Uranium.
5/ First a quick note on “this cycle” – Segra generally defines this cycle as the deficits forecasted from the mid-2020s to late-2030s. When people imply an asset producing in the mid-to-late 2020s will “miss the cycle”, they clearly have not done any real S/D modelling.
Can anyone tell me an estimated time frame that Nexgen could be permitted, start building their mine and be producing #uranium ??? @quakes99 @JekyllCapital @travmcph @NexGenEnergy $nxe
— Michael Pierce (@Big_U_Dawg) January 22, 2021
2/ Given the scale and cost structure of Arrow, it makes sense that investors are intensely focused on its delivery timeline. This thread will discuss possible timelines, current market expectations (i.e., what’s “priced in”) & how different Arrow scenarios will impact the mkt.
3/ As you can see from the litany of responses to Michael’s tweet, there is great skepticism in the market regarding Arrow’s timeline. This is largely due to a bearish narrative conveyed by competing CEO’s whose assets only hold value if Arrow is substantially delayed.
4/ Those who played “King of the Hill” as a child would remember that it is the person at the top who is constantly attacked, not the kid sitting at the bottom of the hill in the mud. No one cares enough about that kid to attack them. This is a good parable for $NXE & Uranium.
5/ First a quick note on “this cycle” – Segra generally defines this cycle as the deficits forecasted from the mid-2020s to late-2030s. When people imply an asset producing in the mid-to-late 2020s will “miss the cycle”, they clearly have not done any real S/D modelling.
