BC COVID19
Saved by @AntonTweets

⚠️TWO DIFFERENT #COVID19 PANDEMICS—Many think with cases dropping that pandemic is nearly over. But truth is, there are now 2 different #SARSCoV2 pandemics diverging—old strain is waning, while the more contagious #B117 strain is dominating. We will be soon slammed very hard. 🧵

 2) Here is what is really going to happen... most countries are having a gentle case decline with R(e) currently around 0.9. But this is deceiving. The #B117 is still relatively rare so far, so the R is being influenced mostly by the old common variant. But not for long...
3) Here is what is going to happen... currently R is ~0.9 in many places, but with the more infectious #B117, the R will jump 50% approximately. And it is inevitable (all CDC and Danish models say this) that B117 will take over as the reigning dominant variant soon...
4) and when that happens, what worked before to keep the pandemic contained at R of 0.9 will no longer work. Here is the model for Alberta, 🇨🇦 by @GosiaGasperoPhD. The B117 dotted red line will soon dominate and drive a new surge in latter half of March and April.
5) And Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC has found the same thing. I GQR works now for keeping R around 0.9 or even 0.8, will absolutely not work anymore once #B117 variant takes over. Forget about it. We will be hit hard. But there is a way—if we suppress R to 0.7 or less.
https://t.co/gOq0put4H5
6) The solution to defeating the #B117 is to chase a #ZeroCovid approach and slam the R even lower to below 0.7.... but optimally 0.6 or less. So that even when the #B117 arises, it will keep R under 1 (0.6*1.5=0.9). And by keeping R at 0.6 now—we will have buffer room for B117.
7) And again Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC agrees with that assessment. Their model for R of 0.8 shows it is insufficient to defeat #B117. But its model for R 0.7 shows it can be enough.
https://t.co/gOq0put4H5
8) The problem is that of the declining states, only 1 state is under R 0.7... which is Wyoming (figure below sorted from lowest to highest R). Every other state’s R is over 0.7. Thus while they would yield decreases now—they won’t once #B117 takes over.
https://t.co/EWqtBZpsuh
9) Meanwhile, the replacement thing is happening in England. #B117 is dominating while old common #SARSCoV2 is all but nearly gone. Total cases dropping only because of tight UK lockdown. But can UK sustain & not let up on gas pedal before politics caves to reopen too soon?
10) Here is another @GosiaGasperoPhD model of the same thing. Keeping the R at 0.8 level is not enough to stop the spread once #B117 takes over.
11) Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC @SSI_dk has been warning about this for over a month. The world hasn’t been listening. Aggressive mitigation for keeping R under 0.7 now is the only way. https://t.co/XfZOC7UXXB
12) Let’s slam this home. suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, 3000 new cases/day instead.

➡️6x difference in 2 wks

HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
13) The problem is that to get R low enough, what used to work won’t work anymore. When we previously could afford to open schools, it may be that when B117 becomes dominant, we might lose that buffer to keep R<0.7. https://t.co/yVld1eSrQS
14) Denmark CDC is becoming more right — contagious #B117 variant is continuing to solidify itself as 12.1% of sequenced #SARSCoV2 samples. 70% increase per week!

2.4%

4.0%

7.4%

12.1%
15) Denmark officials, despite their lockdown induced case drop, are really panicking. Seriously— read the WaPo article or this thread 🧵 below. They express that without the 100% sequencing, they would have been lulled into complacency. https://t.co/gMiJdcc6MC
16) “Without this variant, we would be in really good shape,” said Camilla Holten Moller, co-leader of the @SSI_dk group modeling the spread of the virus.

“If you just look at the reproduction number, you just wouldn’t see that it was in growth underneath at all,”
17) The good news so far is that all the vaccines tested so far perform decently against the main #B117 variants, but maybe less so against the 🇿🇦 #B1352 and 🇧🇷#P1 variants. Pfizer, Moderna, etc mostly good for B117. See thread 🧵 below to catch up. https://t.co/x30ufKmTW8
18) So here comes the “but”... there is a new subtype of #B117 emerging... a mutated sublineage of regular main #B117 that had acquired the troublesome E484K mutation. This is the bad mutation that 🇿🇦 CDC & other studies helps B1351 evade antibodies. https://t.co/3Ktkb9Iv8n
19) So what do we know about the #B117+E484K combo sublineage? Not much except this preprint study showing it is might be more resistant to antibody neutralization (more antibodies needed in lab study to neutralize the pseudovirus) than the common strain and the regular B117.
20) This #B117+E484K isn’t for sure resistant to vaccine. We don’t know yet. And we don’t know if it will still be more contagious like the main B117 is, but we should assume it is—& take precautions that it might be the double combo of more contagious & maybe antibody resistant.
21) could #B117+E484K be a fluke? Maybe. But it emerged recently in UK twice—independently arising in Wales, and arising in England. Just like in 🇧🇷 and 🇿🇦—so 4 times means convergent evolution is real. And convergent evolution is usually always greater survival fitness.
22) The other way to win is with mass vaccination like in Israel 🇮🇱 that has already vaccinated 50 shot per 100 people in the elderly. Hence now look how fast the cases, hospitalizations are diverging for those age 60+ vs 59 or under. That is the effect of **mass** vaccinations.
23) Actually, Israel 🇮🇱 has now reached 60 vaccination shots per 100 people: 4x UK 🇬🇧 and 6x the 🇺🇸. Rest of EU is much much lower.
24) Another alarming datapoint: 10% of the village of Corzano 🇮🇹 has the #B117 variant—10% of all residents!!! https://t.co/edbN2KYihV
25) Moreover, of the 10% of the infected 🇮🇹 village with #B117 UK variant, 60% of cases are kids from kindergarten and primary school, while other 40% are their parents. Schools in the village have closed now. https://t.co/xdiZqKOLVc
26) BOTTOMLINE: unless we can mass vaccinate quickly like Israel (which is still not 1/3 of the way done), we must continue to mitigate with *premium* masks preferably and with airborne virus precautions to ventilate.

💡No virus = No mutation.

#ZeroCovid #COVID19 #COVIDzero
27) here is where you can find the R(e) or R(t) in your US state. https://t.co/EWqtBZpsuh
28) Please switch to premium masks if you can. KN95, KF94, FFP2, etc.... the new variant is just too contagious not to take extra precautions. https://t.co/5pDv4nloRi
29) If you’re skeptical, you don’t have to take my word alone. Read this article in Science magazine by @kakape, he essentially outlines the same thing as I have with the ominous pandemic future of #B117. I trust my colleagues at Denmark 🇩🇰 @SSI_dk a lot. https://t.co/5i0oMxNrh1
30) Also why aren’t we aware of that much #B117 in other countries besides Denmark and UK? Well because most countries sequence almost nothing (panel B is a log scale - so the drop off is much much worse as you go down), and also very slow in sequencing even when they do.
31) Based on the limited #SARSCoV2 genomic sequencing that we do have... here is how different mutations are growing in each country so far (data slightly older by 1.5 weeks). Pink is the N501 mutation (seen in a few, but #B117 is the main variant with it)
https://t.co/Dz6NYYEdaX
32) Is #B117 a VARIANT or new STRAIN? People are now use them interchangeably. Let’s end the confusion. Experts say a variant is crowned a new strain when:

📌Becomes dominant (B117 🇬🇧)

📌More transmissible (B117), deadlier, or modifies immunity. #COVID19
https://t.co/nBnmm6gdV4

More from Eric Feigl-Ding

Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Breaking—UK scientists just reported a case-control study that the mutated UK 🇬🇧B.1.1.7 variant is not associated w/ more severe #COVID19— “found no significant differences in hospital admissions and case fatality at 28 days, & occurrence of reinfections”, says @mvankerkhove

2) That said, the new UK mutated strain is a more transmissible (contagious) variant. Keep transmissibility and illness severity separate. They are two different things. Don’t get them confused.

3) The new UK variant severity study is included in today’s WHO report, to be released soon this afternoon according to WHO sources. Waiting for it to drop. I’ll keep folks posted on the details.

4) Update: here is UK Technical report on #SARSCoV2 variant of concern (B.1.1.7) in 🇬🇧 with prelim findings from their case-control study of no increased severity for the new variant that I reported yesterday.

5) Also keep in a mind that a virus that spreads faster (more contagious) yields much worse total outcomes than a virus that is just merely more severe.

All things equal, a new mutated variant that is more contagious & no more severe is worse. And that is what we now have.
COVID
Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
JUST IN — "Camp Auschwitz" insurrectionist of the Capitol siege was just arrested this morning in Newport News, VIrginia.

2) this guy was just arrested.


3) We cannot have a repeat of the fascism from WW2. This is @Schwarzenegger’s speech was so powerful.


4) My wife @andreafeigl1’s 🇦🇹 great grandfather secretly fought Hilter’s Nazi regime & smuggled many Jews to safety as an aircraft engineer. He was thrown into a concentration camp, and escaped.

She knows a few things about Nazi history—Jan 6th was downright fascist. Read 👇


5) So this cover is from a semi-tabloid magazine in Germany, according to @andreafeigl1. But even so, how did such a magazine still get it so damn right?! Maybe Germany 🇩🇪 has seen this kinda fascism before...
LEGAL
Advertisement
Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
📍DOUBLE REINFECTIONS—wow, both PM Justin Trudeau and Biden’s HHS Secretary Becerra got *reinfected* with #COVID19–from same conference—➡️when did Becerra last get infected? May 18th 2022—not even a full month ago! Trudeau in Jan 2022. I worry it’s reinfections due to #BA5/#BA4.


2) #BA5 and #BA4 are worrisome. They are surging and they have high reinfection potential. Your past BA1/BA2 doesn’t substantially protect you from #Ba5/4


3) Excess deaths—the new #BA4 & #BA5 variants of the coronavirus are currently the **fastest growing** strains in the US & UK. ➡️They are exponentially replacing all other past strains. Learn from South Africa’s early warning signs and their excess deaths. #CovidIsNotOver #COVID


4) Is it a Paxlovid rebound for Becerra, as some are asking? Unclear—Paxlovid rebound usually only happens at day 10-14 that we know of and have data. The FDA says it’s 1-2% rebound but I counted 12% from this Pfizer graph submitted to FDA.


5) and yes, #ba5 / #BA4 are very problematic. they are 2x more resistant than even BA2 for neutralizing the virus compared to those who had breakthrough reinfections from older Omicron.
CATEGORY PDFMAKERAPP GRAB THIS READWISEIO SAVE READWISEIO SAVE THREAD THREADER COMPILE SUMMARIZE
Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
ATROCIOUS big pharma price gouging of insulin:

This crying mother can’t afford the $1000 for her son’s insulin.

📌yet, it only costs pharma $5 to produce.

📌Insulin was invented 100 years ago by Fred Banting—who donated patent for $1 to make it free for all.

Let that sink in.


2) Insulin is one of the most disgusting cases of price gouging ever.

America has long taken a free market approach to pharmaceuticals.
Drug companies haggle separately over drug prices with a variety of private insurers across the

3) “Meanwhile, Medicare, the government health program for those over age 65 — it’s also the nation’s largest buyer of drugs—is barred from negotiating drug prices. That gives pharma more leverage, and it leads to the kind of price surges of EpiPens, opioid antidotes, & insulin.”

4) In 2018:
Johnson & Johnson CEO made $30M
Pfizer CEO made $28M
Merck CEO made $18M
Eli Lilly CEO made $16M
Gilead CEO made $16M

Meanwhile:

📌Americans spent $535B on Rx drugs

📌1/4 of diabetics rationed insulin to survive

📌500K Americans went bankrupt from medical bills.

5) What’s the right price patients should pay for medications? ZERO dollars, because no copay ==> more patients get their medicine ==> saves lives and saves money. Copays decrease adherence, and copays hurt patients who actually need them.
FINANCE
Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Stupid—Oregon church has huge 74+ person #COVID19 outbreak after dozens of maskless churchgoers stood onstage singing & clapping inside a packed indoor venue for Easter Sunday service. The Peoples Church, is vowing to do continue church service on Sunday.

2) Now, the Oregon Health Authority says that at least 74 people associated with the church have tested positive for the coronavirus — one of the state’s largest workplace outbreaks.

3) “In a statement, the church’s leaders attributed the outbreak to a recent rise in covid-19 cases in Marion County, Ore.

Murray said the church, which has held in-person services throughout the pandemic, intends to continue with in-person ceremonies on Sunday.

4) Who saw this coming? Countless scientists. If only airborne-denialists didn’t muzzle the airborne aerosols science.
ALL

You May Also Like

Andrew Chen
Andrew Chen
@andrewchen
👇 Thread. New deck getting published this week: "Consumer startups are awesome, and here's what I'm looking to invest in at Andreessen Horowitz." If you want to read it, subscribe to my newsletter here: https://t.co/262t8eh0wf


1/ A lot of new consumer technologies have been introduced to US households in the last 100 years. But it's taken many of them - like the telephone - more than 50 years to get to the majority of the US. Why is that?


2/ We had to literally teach people how to use phone. Which end goes to your mouth, which goes to your ear. Say "hello" when people call. The motivation of consumers to talk to their friends has always been there, but we had to teach the behavior


3/ If you compare phones to the latest technologies, there's been a huge shift. Things are being picked up much faster.


4/ Even while there's been all this innovation recently, physically speaking, we are still the same human beings from 100,000 years ago.
STARTUPS
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
HORANADU ANNAPOORNESHWARI, CHIKMAGALUR (KAR)
#bharatmandir

Annapoorneshwari is the Devi of nutrition and food. The literal meaning of Annapoorneshwari is “Feeding one and all”. Anyone who comes here is offered meals and shelter within the premises.
@LostTemple7


Maharshi Agastya is believed to have done pratishtha here.

Once, Shiva and Parvati had an argument. Shiva declared everything in the world including food to be Maya or illusion. To prove him wrong, Devi Parvati disappeared resulting in entire Earth becoming still.


Taking pity, Devi appeared as Annapoorna and relieved everyone.
Another belief is that once Shiva beheaded Brahma and his skull got stuck in Shiva’s hand. He was cursed that till the skull is not full of food or grains, it will remain stuck to his hands.


Shiva went everywhere and asked for food but the skull was never full. He finally came here and Maa Annapoorna filled the skull with grains and reversed Shiva’s curse.

It is believed that who ever visits Devi Annapoorna here will never be without food in their lives.
ALL
Advertisement
SK
SK
@sk_diary1
Andhakasuravadha Samharamurti -#story #Thread
Sculpture of Bhagwan Shiva as the destroyer of the Asura Andhaka - Cave 29,Ellora caves

Asura Andhaka hangs on to a trishula held by 6-armed Shiva.

Once Parvathi & Shiva were relaxing in the pleasant gardens of Mount Mandhara.


Bhagwan Shiva sat down there to enjoy the happiness.Parvati closed the eyes of Shiva playfully & darkness covered the whole universe.Parvati was perplexed & her palms were wet with perspiration.A few drops of her sweat mixed with sweat from Shiva’s body& fell to the ground.

From this sweat,a fierce creature was born,it started to roar.Child was born blind as Shiva's eyes were closed so was named as Andaka.Andha means darkness&also ignorance.Around the same time Asura Hiranyaksha was performing rigorous tapas Shiva for a boon of powerful son.

Bhagwan Shiva was pleased by tapas of Hiranyaksha & blessed him with darshan.Hiranyaksha asked for a powerful son,Shiva told him that he cannot have his own son,but can adopt a blind child who would become very powerful later.Shiva gave child Andaka to Hiranyaksha.

Hiranyaksha returned to his kingdom with Andaka.Later after the vadh of Hiranyaksha, Andaka is said to have lived with his cousins.He was ridiculed,so dejected Andaka went to forest.He did severe tapas for over many years towards Brahma Dev. Brahma dev appeared before him.
ALL
sriram \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
sriram 🇮🇳...
@SriramKannan77
Saptapadi

The most essential rite (Sanskrit: rītī) of a Hindu marriage ceremony is Saptapadi (English: seven steps, saptapadī). Saptapadi is a Sanskrit term that means "seven steps." The wedded couple walks seven steps after tying the Mangalsutra, which is known as Saptapadi.


The couple legally becomes husband and wife after the seventh step.
Hindu wedding rituals: During Saath Phere, the bride and groom exchange their marital vows while circumambulating (walking around) the sacred fire seven times.


This is because the bride and groom exchange marriage vows and hope for a happy married life together.

1. The first marriage vow, out of seven, is a petition to the Lord for nutrition and nourishment for the Hindu bride and groom.


2. Hindu Bride and Groom: The second marriage promise is for strength in sickness, health, good times, and terrible times.

3. For the Hindu Bride and Groom - The third marriage promise is for the Hindu bride and groom's prosperity.

4. For Hindu Bride and Groom - The fourth pledge is to stand by their families in good times and bad.
ALL
Pat Walls
Pat Walls
@thepatwalls
And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

The winners 👇

#10

Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


#9

Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


#8

SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


#7

CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!
MAKERS