A teachable moment for Bayesian reasoning – when one study finds a result that's massively different than all the others, and, moreover, conflicts with what we know about the science, there's a pretty good chance it's either a fluke or it's wrong.

With 90% of American seniors now fully vaccinated, the overwhelming majority of the country's mortality risk has been, simply, eliminated. Even given Delta and flatlining vaccination rates, it is already a very different pandemic now. A thread (1/x).

There will be new cases, some of them severe and some leading ultimately to death. And there of course complications beyond death—even beyond hospitalization and severe disease.

If vaccination rates got close to 100%, we might be able to bring those numbers, in the future, close to zero. But even now we have probably eliminated 90% of all potential mortality from COVID-19. This makes it a very different kind of disease than we encountered last year.

First, "they kids are safe. Believe it or not, they always have been."

"It may sound strange, given a year of panic over school closures and reopenings, a year of masking toddlers and closing playgrounds and huddling in pandemic pods, that among children the mortality risk from COVID-19 is actually lower than from the flu."

Last week I spoke to over 5000 people in rural Georgia. Most were not vaccinated because they still had questions. EVERY question they asked was legitimate and important.

Stop telling people to “just get vaccinated” if you aren’t willing to put in the work to help them do it.

That “work” is MUCH more high touch than spouting condescension online.

“The unvaccinated” are not a monolith of defectors. They are people our health care system has long underserved - Black folks, rural folks, un and un/under insured folks and young folks.

That work requires daily acts to dispel and decrease the rampant disinformation people are contending with. It requires laws that prevent media organizations from willfully distributing disinformation about science during a pandemic when peoples lives depend on vaccine science.

That work requires interventions that can successfully vaccinate groups NOT individuals - like households, schools, churches work places - so that the protection of vaccination is SHARED among those most likely to encounter each other. Remember, vaccines protect you AND others.

That work requires incentives to vaccinate that begin locally, not trickle down from above. A lot of people are not aware of the large federal programs available to them. But they know their child care provider or grocery store attendant or neighbor - THEY are the influencers.

How the Hydroxychloroquine saga unfolded:

-Trump says he’s taking HCQ
-MAY 19th: Pelosi goes on CNN "HCQ is dangerous”
-JUNE 16th: FDA revokes use of HCQ
-JULY 31st: Fauci says HCQ is NOT effective

Day 2 of Biden’s Admin: HCQ is ok & doctors are now allowed to prescribe it

It's a fact that very few people know about White Rose.
A group of students that spoke out about the Nazi regime which ultimately ended with their imprisonment or execution.

Why is this?

Is it because everyday Germans were embarrassed by what they had allowed to happen.

Regardless of what Covid is or isn't we've e allowed our Government unprecedented powers to curtail our freedoms.

They have chosen polices that put care home residents at risk, ignored all other health concerns and collapsed the economy

For what?

A virus with a 0.27 IFR.

They profit from our misery.

They are unaccountable for their actions.

With the aid of the bought media they have covered up deaths under the guise of Covid

It is time we unite and learn from the mistakes of 1940s everyday Germans

They lived to regret fighting back

The cycle is endless

First the vulnerable, then all adults then the children and then it's yearly.

Then non compliance will be punished

Then you are no longer free

Yes people have died from a respitory virus named Covid but they show no care for non Covid excess deaths

None

About 50,000 non Covid excess deaths at home in England & Wales over the last 12 months and not a word from our PM

Is this a man that cares about our health or does he care about his ties to Pharma and the elites.

It's a select club and we are not in it.

Decide your own fate