BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Ok, here's my first bash at how I think UK-EU fisheries will be managed in future now we have the agreement

It’s quite complicated in parts, so would appreciate any corrections…

@StevePeers @BD_Stew @AntonSpisak (& others)

 1) QUOTAS: For the next 5.5 years (until end-June 2026), each side’s quotas are set out in the agreement

This amounts to a 25% value reduction for the EU gradually over this period
2) These quotas shares set a new baseline for 2026, but they will be up for negotiation from thereon
3) CATCH LEVELS: However, they will still both need to negotiate overall allowed catch levels for each year, starting in 2021

By 31 Jan, a schedule must be agreed for talks, culminating in final agreement by 10 December (this fits in with the internal EU fisheries negotiation)
4) PROVISIONAL ACCESS: If there’s no agreement by 20 December, each side will apply a provisional allowable catch level for 1 January, defined by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea based on scientific recommendations
5) These provisional catch levels will apply the existing agreed quotas (access must allow a similar amount to be caught as in previous years during the provisional period)

I.e. it continues the status quo but prevents a fish grab in the provisional period
6) Access will be provided provisionally for 3 months for most species, but for as little as 1 month in the 6-12 mile zone

Further provisional access can be negotiated thereafter if there's still no overall agreement
7) DISPUTE RESOLUTION: If either side reduces the other’s access, it can take retaliatory measures.

This basically has three levels:

1) reduction of fishing access and tariffs on fish
2) tariffs on other goods
3) suspension of other parts of the trade and economic partnership
8) I don’t think there’s anything stopping either side escalating straight to point 3) if they consider the economic impact substantial enough

In other words, they don’t have to apply 1) and 2) first
9) These measures can only be applied with 7 days’ notice and not until access has actually ceased

i.e. one side could warn the other that provisional access would not continue in 2 weeks' time, but retaliation couldn’t apply until then
10) Arbitration follows automatically – even if the sanctioned side doesn’t request it (though they can), the one imposing the sanctions must do so within two weeks
11) The panel will be asked to assess whether there has been a breach and whether the measures were proportionate

If it’s yes and yes, then fine; if it’s no to either, they must be removed or changed
12) If they aren’t, the sanctioned side can request that the panel set out what proportionate retaliation it can take in response, this can only be applied 15 days after any ruling
13) TERMINATION: Overall, the fisheries section can be terminated by either side with 8 months’ notice

However, doing so would also automatically terminate the trade, aviation and road transport sections (a high price!)
14) In such a scenario, any existing agreements on access and quotas would continue for the rest of the year in which the agreement ended

i.e. if UK terminated in May 2021, EU fishing rights would continue until the end of December 2022
15) The agreement will be reviewed four years after the transition period, so in 9.5 years, to discuss access, quotas and other issues

Though these issues will be up for discussion each year
16) MANAGEMENT: It will be managed on an ongoing basis through the Specialised Committee on Fisheries, which is part of the Partnership Council

This committee will prepare annual negotiations, but that's not where they'll take place (presumably ministerial level)

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2/ This is because there are still some formidable hurdles in the way of closure on the level playing field issue, and they haven't even got into fisheries in a big way yet. And both sides say things there are "extremely difficult".

3/ Yesterday there were some signals that a deal could be done by the weekend, but the mood seems to have dipped somewhat.

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Scoop...Britain faces dearer electricity and occasional black-outs if it bans EU fishing boats from its waters after 2026. This de facto power over the UK power market is handed to the EU in the post-Brexit deal which MP’s will wave almost unread through parliament today. 1/10

The trade deal enshrines a link between continued EU access to British waters and UK frictionless access to the EU power grid and gas network. This has scarcely been noticed though it was mentioned and brushed aside by last night’s statement by the ultra-Brexiteer ERG. 2/10

The link – drawn to my attention by a senior EU source – is spelled out in dates, not words. The fisheries part of the deal grants EU boats continued access with a 25% cut in quotas over five and a half years until 30 June 2026. After that there are “annual negotiations” 3/10

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George Riddell
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Been a lot of discussion recently around services trade in the deal between the UK and EU. Having read through the agreement over the past couple of days, my impressions👇

First off, services is definitely included. Question for service providers, is will it be enough?

1/N

My overall impression is that the EU has offered among the best in class for its FTAs similar to Canada and Japan.

But this access is a far cry from access to the Single Market and how is constructed as part of a trade agreement for the EU reflects that.

2/n


Unlike for goods trade, once you've got a product through all the customs and regulatory procedures into the EU, it can be sold anywhere in the EU, or its "entered circulation".

For services trade, that isn't the case. Its still done on a member state by member state level.

3/n

This is even true in the trade agreement itself where although the provisions set out in the Services and Investment chapter sounds awfully good - lots of principles about the freedom to establish and allowing the cross-border trade in services.

It's only when...

4/n

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5/n
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David Henig
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How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
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Alliance of British Entrepreneurs
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🇬🇧 Happy Independence Day patriots 🇬🇧

Its Day 1 outside the #EU so we wanted to remind you of all the things Remainers told you would happen on #Brexit day.

Never in the history of political movements has one side fibbed so spectacularly and (at times) hilariously.

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[1] How are you all feeling today...down there?🍆

Well please be careful because now we've left the EU we are all due waves of super gonorrehoea.

Wrapping yourself in the #EU flag and putting #FBPE in your bio is the only known

[2] Are you hungry? Well get used to it.

We were fed (excuse the pun) stories as late as November 2020 that #Brexit would lead to 60% reduction in haulage meaning 'months' of food shortages.

[3] Forget those foreign holidays unless you fancy swimming the Channel.

As late as October 2020 we were told that all flights would be grounded.

Both sides quietly agreed to contingencies in December. Quelle

[4] In March 2020 as COVID hit Europe, we were told the only way to obtain ventilators was by joining the #EU scheme. We refused and Remainers screeched that the Government was putting Brexit over breathing.

The EU scheme obtained...zero...ventilators.
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