BC BREXIT
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BREAK: πŸš¨πŸš¨πŸ‡«πŸ‡·πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸš—πŸš™πŸš—πŸš™πŸš—πŸš™πŸš—πŸš™πŸš—πŸš™πŸš—πŸ‡«πŸ‡·πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸš’πŸš’πŸš’πŸš¨πŸš¨ The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also don’t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread

@FT So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a Β£200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc.. /2

https://t.co/aFzelRLlEX
@FT Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than Β£450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3
@FT So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over Β£194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...Β£33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for Β£33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4
@FT Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk
@FT @NAOorguk So here is @PortOfDover EU Exit boss Tim Reardon explaining to the Lords EU Cmme why they needed to double the number of French kiosks from five to 10 - because we'll soon be facing intrusive new checks; stamps in passport etc. Oh joy. /6

https://t.co/6989KZPHqQ
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover The Cabinet Office have yet to explain their thinking fully on why Dover didn't get the money - or why they didn't fine more cash when it was clear the Fund was more than twice over-subscribed. But ministers have explained how they whittle down the field. See this:/7
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover But none of that explains really why a government that is merrily building borders doesn't appear to want to pay for them to be built...surely in the case of Dover, when everyone is sitting fuming in queues this summer...the extra five booths might have paid off?! /8
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover But his is MUCH bigger than Dover. This is about booting up port infrastructure across the UK to deal with those extra 215m customs declarations, the new processes Ireland-GB, the expected increase in 'short sea' crossings to Harwich and the Humber. It's #Brexit made flesh! /9
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover It's fair to say there is a LOT of grumbling out there today as these awards were circulated.

Portsmouth got Β£17.1m - which is about Β£8m short of what they asked for, I am told. /10
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover Their MP @StephenMorganMP is fuming. He says the money falls "far short" of what they need and is less than "the money mandated by the government’s own border operating model" - I can see the Govt getting some heat on all this in coming days/weeks. /11
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP This leaves ports facing a real dilemma as the July 1 2021 deadline approaches...do the go ahead and build scaled back, inadequate infrastructure...or seek more money or what? See this from @mikesellersPIP the boss of @PortsmouthPort /12
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort And I can tell you that dilemma is NOT confined to Portsmouth.

Humber ports like Purfleet & Killinghome that deal with 'trailer' freight from the EU on short-sea crossings also have lots to do. Holyhead must deal with huge new Irish freight issues etc. /13
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort Some got nothing, others took an across the board haircut 33% haricut on what they did get.

@timgmorris Chief Exec UK Major Ports Group says they're "very disappointed that the allocations of funding are so late in the day and significantly short of what many ports require."/14
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort @timgmorris His group is now calling on the Government "to work urgently with the sector to review funding levels and timings”...because tickety-tock the new border hurtles towards us (exact details still tbc...checks date...16 Dec...mops brow) /15
The point is that everyone, I think, knows it is going to be pretty choppy logistically few months - and then again, with a 'second cliff-edge' in July 1 2021 for goods coming EU-GB, so it seems odd to me Govt isn't chucking sufficient wedge at this one. /16
Because if & when the blame game begins over port congestion, I think I have a fair bet about where the finger will be pointing - at least from the point of view of a pretty sore UK ports industry today. ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Good to see @Marthakearney on @BBCr4today taking @pritipatel to task over the numbers of lorries in Dover - now 1,500 in Stack (M20) and Manston airfield combined - rather more than 170 that @BorisJohnson said yesterday, baffling haulage groups /1

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson She won't say whether lorry drivers will have to take a PCR test (long-winded, requires RNA extraction etc. 24-48hrs) rather than much faster (and less sensitive) lateral flow test. Short Strait will struggle to operates with PCR tests. You'd need one yesterday for tomorrow! /2

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson Because of the delays that have empty lorries already stuck in the queues, in an earlier interview British Retail Consortium @the_brc Andrew Opie said fresh food shortages would occur within days because lorries couldn't get back to Spain etc to reload /3

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson @the_brc Haulage experts like @RHADuncanB are always at pains to explain that the lorries at Dover (and GB-IE, for that matter) are flowing in a continuous cycle. More than 85% are from EU countries. So if you block one side, or artery the whole system starts to grind to a halt/4

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson @the_brc @RHADuncanB This episode has been a bit of a teaching moment, exposing the canard that the UK can unilaterally "take back control of its borders". It can't. Borders are membranes. Traffic flows in both directions. Actions by one side impact the other - as French move has demonstrated. /5
POLITICS
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here
GOVERNMENT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
πŸš¨πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ’„πŸ‘ πŸ‘—πŸ’…πŸ»πŸ•ΊπŸ’ƒπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸš¨
UK’s Β£35bn fashion industry warns of β€œdecimation” from #brexit - big names sign open letter to @BorisJohnson urging action. Many of 50,000 SMEs on the rack due to VAT, customs and work permit issues. Stay with me/1


You can read the full text of the letter here, co-ordinated by Fashion Round Table @FashionRoundTab, but tl;dr it says that #Brexit has left a "gaping hole" in an industry that relies of free movement of professionals. It's a familiar cry /2



@FashionRoundTab The industry, already whacked by #COVID19, is now discovering that cross-border sales are a horror (VAT, Customs, long delays) and models, stylists, photographers that used to blat around Europe can't any more. They need permits, for themselves, for their gear /3

It is on one level amazing that this is only just fully dawning - as the musician industry found out recently - but fashion is not just big names and big companies. It's actually a mountain of small companies and sole traders often that feed into a huge (Β£35bn) industry /4

I've written about fashion models issue before (they need tier-5 sponsorship visas) and how that will erode London's status as a hub, but this goes so much wider than this - hence the #dontmakefashionhistory campaign - and comes down the lack of a mobility chapter in the deal /5
ECONOMY
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
πŸš¨πŸš¨πŸššπŸš›πŸš¨πŸš¨email from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govt’s Β£200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of β€œhuge shortage” of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF


He adds: β€œExport from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.” ...remember @BrandonLewis β€˜no border’ tweet πŸ™„/2


He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesn’t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3


This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4


In the next week or two we’ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5
FINANCE
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Another head-banging day for the Β£112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5
BREXIT

More from Brexit

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
BREXIT
Nick Gutteridge
Nick Gutteridge
@nickgutteridge
1/ What are the β€˜new’ demands the UK says the EU has made in the Brexit talks and are they actually new? There are 3 specific areas of contention that have emerged, one each on state aid rules, the Level Playing Field/Governance, and fish. None of them should be a total surprise.

2/ First, on state aid. The UK says the EU wants the Commission and European Investment Bank to be given carve-outs from the subsidy control provisions in the deal. It says this would create an unfair imbalance, because there would be no similar exemption for British authorities.

3/ This is particularly relevant in light of the bloc's €750bn Coronavirus recovery fund. It has already been delayed by an internal political row, and the EU is keen to ensure that isn't exacerbated by legal disputes with the UK next year. Brussels denies this is anything new.

4/ The Commission is an ex ante regulator, meaning it is called in to pre-authorise state aid spending by EU countries. The EU wants the UK to set up its own independent regulator to approve subsidies in the same way. If it does so, many of the state aid problems will fall away.

5/ LPF/Governance. This is about the 'ratchet clause' which the EU has relabelled as 'equivalence' of standards. It addresses what happens if one side raises its standards on say environmental or labour rules in the future and the other doesn't, creating a competitive imbalance.
BREXIT
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Buck Frexit! \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f49c\U0001f499\U0001f30d #FBPE #ElectoralReform
Buck Frexit! πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ’œπŸ’™πŸŒ #FB...
@Beany_1
Project fear - a media friendly term which at one stroke, mocked the expertise of those at many of the coal faces of Brexit and dismissed it with a sneer. Yet, just 9 days in, it looks very much like project fear predictions were true and should have been heeded.

Thread

Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.
BREXIT
European Unity #FBPE \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f4b6\u2b50\ufe0f
European Unity #FBPE πŸ‡ͺ...
@EuropeanUnity1
#Brexitadventcalendar

31 liars & hypocrites who facilitated brexit

Some are mad, some are bad

All are millionaires, some are billionaires

They’ll profit from UK companies failing, keep their money abroad to avoid UK tax and travel freely with their EU passports

#RejoinEU


https://t.co/mZRr9u1RPb


https://t.co/BY6hKloR9d


https://t.co/NdC0ltLeSM


https://t.co/BLnRLotso7
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly β€” there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT

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Jig's Patel
Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988
Thread on
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"

(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)

-Trade timing after 9:45

-Check Banknifty change in OI data at 9:45, and identify the highest OI built up in call side and put side

-We will sell both strikes with combined premium as SL on both legs.
(2/n)

28th June 2021

BN open-35440
At 9:45 trading at 35350
Highest OI in call side at 35500 CE and 35000 at put side
Strike selection 35500 CE- 35000 PE
(3/n)


29th June 2021

BN open-35323

At 9:45 trading at 35112

Highest OI in call side at 35300 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35300 CE (232) - 35000 PE (150) Combined premium 382 , Both legs SL 382
(4/n)


30th June 2021

BN open-35030

At 9:45 trading at 35002

Highest OI in call side at 35000 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35000 CE(176)- 35000 PE(213) Combined premium 389 , Both legs SL 389
(5/n)
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTION SELLING , ALL
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
BANASHANKARI AMMA, NEAR BADAMI (KAR)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

Originally built by Chalukyas in 7th century. Devi Banashankari was their family deity. This image of Banashankari Amma was installed by Jagadekamalla I in 630 AD.

Later renovations were done by Marathas.


Once, a demon Durgamasur was troubling the people of this area. Answering the prayers of Devas, Ma Parvati emerged from the yajna fire as Banashankari and killed Durgamasur.
This area has rich forests of coconut, betel nut and other trees.
@GunduHuDuGa


It is said that during a severe famine, Devi provided vegetables and fruits to the people of this area.
Hence, she is also worshipped here as Shakambhari.
In the annual festival called Banashankari jatre, a Rath yatra takes place and Devi moves around the city in the chariot.
ALL
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Suhail
Suhail
@Suhail
1/ The first 18 months of starting a company is often life or death. I must've made 5 different companies that each failed within 9 mo. 😭 Each time the company failed I figured out what I could do better. Eventually startup #6 got to $40K/mo by month 18. Here’s what I learned...

2/ Stay focused! Ignore things that are a waste of time: meetups & conferences, meetings with no clear agenda, fundraising if you're not fundraising, reading lots of tech media articles, etc. Every week should feel like significant progress in the first year.

3/ Your first 5 hires will be the difference between life or death. Choose carefully. Be picky. Many of the things we do at the company still are a result of those early hires' legacy. Have fun as a tight knit team. It will change & evolve as you get bigger so enjoy this moment.

4/ Growth may be flat for the first 9 months. It's gonna be okay. Almost every company has experienced this: Airbnb had to sell cereal in-between, Slack failed as a gaming company first, Tesla sold only 147 cars after 6 years! You probably won't be an overnight success either.

5/ In the beginning, do customer support yourself. You will learn a lot about why your product sucks. I did 5,000+ support tickets when it was the two of us. Delight customers & fix things fast while you learn. It will help you build an amazing intuition about your customers.
STARTUPS
KrishnaLeela
KrishnaLeela
@Talesofkrishna
πŸŒΏπ‘»π’‰π’† π’”π’•π’π’“π’š 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓 : 𝑫𝒉𝒓𝒖𝒗𝒂 & π‘½π’Šπ’”π’‰π’π’–

Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W


Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela


The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.


One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.


Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
RELIGION
Andrey \uf8ff Azimov
Andrey ο£Ώ Azimov
@AndreyAzimov
The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:
STARTUPS