BC BOOKMARK

Saved by @Alex1Powell

John
@udarnik 4 years, 6 months ago 633 views

Save to PDF Share See On Twitter

I am bookmarking this.

For all the stupid motherfuckers out there arguing that (and I quote this figure from some stupid motherfucker arguing with me) 99.97% of people will be fine.

\U0001f9f5For months, healthcare professionals have been hanging on to the guardrails of the top deck of the Titanic.

We have been screaming at the top of our lungs that there is an iceberg dead ahead and begging the captain to turn the wheel.

We have had other passengers who are
— Kari Jerge, MD, FACS (she/her) (@kari_jerge) November 29, 2020

First of all: your math is wrong. The 10:1 assumption on symptomatic to asymptomatic cases is just that: an assumption. Maybe true in NY and NJ, likely not elsewhere ... yet.

Second, just sticking to cases, and not stopping tom punch holes in the "a quarter of Americans have had it, so HERD IMMUNITY, YAY!!!" complete and utter horse shit you're peddling, we we had 143K new cases yesterday, and that's *without* the Thanksgiving surge in 5-7 days hence.

Let's be really generous and unrealistic and say that 2% of COVID *cases* end up in the ICU.

We currently have about 65K COVID cases hospitalized and 17K of those are in the ICU.

Confidence intervals of median ICU stay in the best studies we have are 5 - 19 days. One study showed 25% of patients needing over 30 days.

https://t.co/1Szt7A6anp

At the unrealistic 2% number, we are currently adding 3000 future ICU patients per *day* and discharging about that many per week to two weeks.

At the more realistic 5% number, we're adding 7500 ICU patients per day.

The Thanksgiving surge is going to push us well over 200K cases / day. That is somewhere between 4000 and 10,000 future ICU cases *per day* from the 4 days this holiday.

We will have ~25,000 of our ICU beds filled, already. Probably more. There are ~85,000 ICU beds in the US. We can surge maybe another 50% - but, and I can not stress this enough, an ICU bed is FUCKING USELESS WITHOUT STAFF.

The more cases we have, the more staff will get sick.

So, now, instead of holding steady at ~150K cases per day and 3K-7.5K future ICU cases, we are going to surge to over 200K cases per day, yielding 4K - 10K ICU admissions, for the next 2 weeks because people just had to fucking kill grandma.

I mean *see* grandma.

Yeah.

The baseline was bad enough. But now we are going to add, let's use the middle figure of 7K cases per day for 2 weeks, most of whom won't be out of the hospital for over 2 weeks, with 25% of the ICU *already* taken by COVID patients.

(Broken thread, rejoining): That puts us at 98K cases. Plus my (low) estimate of 25K already in there: 123K cases.

And 150% of 85K available beds is... ~127K.

Not even getting into the fact I'm assuming uniform case distribution, and we all *know* this shit clusters...

This is just back-of-the-envelope, simple arithmetic available to all the fucking mouth-breathers arguing with people like me. It doesn't involve Bayesian stats or differential equations (though it wouldn't hurt if you knew DE, this is a salt tank problem...).

So just from the Thanksgiving surge, at the *bare* fucking minimum, we are going to saturate our ICU capacity with COVID.

And if you have some other condition requiring the ICU, too fucking bad. We had COVID fatigue, you see.

Take one for the team, dude.

I am SO goddamned sick of people cherry picking, misrepresenting and plain old making up statistics.

It's part of a pattern in modern American life that is alienating scientists like me from the general population.

We are looking at y'all in fucking horror at the best of times.

But now? Now when you're telling health care workers to their (Twitter) faces that they are lying to you? Telling experts like me we are over-blowing simple, inexorable arithmetic you can do, yourselves?

This isn't Flat Eartherism or Creationism. Lives are at stake.

You May Also Like

Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988

What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE

$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5

Thiruvizha Mahadeva Kshetram
#Alappuzha
#Keralatemples 🚩

Thiruvizha Mahadeva Kshetram is located in Cherthala and it is believed that Prathishta of temple was done by Vilwamangalam Swamy. Paramashiva is Swayambhu here and is worshipped as Kalakandha which means who swallowed

Halahala visham to save the world during Samudra mathanam.

It is a famous temple where people seek the blessings, for curing the Kaivisham. The poison given by someone to destroy a person is made to vomit here. This is removed by making them vomit the poison by a special

medicine.
The medicine for vomiting is made from a plant near temple by Palodathu family. The milk offered to Bhagwan is mixed with the extracts of the plant.

Story says that once this place was a dense forest, and a woman was looking for the presence of a tortoise in the pond

and the tip of her stick hit the bottom and it started bleeding in the pond.
Frightened, the lady informed every one and after searching in pond people found Swayambhu Lingam inside the pond. Thus Prathishta was done here.

Om Namah Shivaye
Shambo Mahadeva
🙏🕉🙏

Advertisement

Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal

MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.

Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.

• Positional Strangles
• Intraday Strangles
• Position Sizing
• How to do Adjustments
• Plenty of Examples
• When to avoid
• Exit Criteria

How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr

• When to sell
• How to do Adjustments
• Exit

1. Let's start option selling learning.
Strangle selling. ( I am doing mostly in weekly Bank Nifty)
When to sell? When VIX is below 15
Assume spot is at 27500
Sell 27100 PE & 27900 CE
say premium for both 50-50
If bank nifty will move in narrow range u will get profit from both.
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) February 10, 2019

Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in

Few are selling 20-25 Rs positional option selling course.
Nothing big deal in that.
For selling weekly option just identify last week low and high.
Now from that low and high keep 1-1.5% distance from strike.
And sell option on both side.
1/n
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) November 3, 2019

1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr

• Sold Strangles 20% cap used
• Added 20% cap more when in profit
• Booked profitable leg and rolled up
• Kept rolling up profitable leg
• Booked loss in calls
• Sold only

Sold 29200 put and 30500 call
Used 20% capital@44 each
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) April 12, 2019

2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.

• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold

Already giving more than 2% return in a week. Now I will prefer to sell 32500 call at 74 to make it strangle in equal ratio.

To all. This is free learning for you. How to play option to make consistent return.
Stay tuned and learn it here free of cost. https://t.co/7J7LC86oW0
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) February 7, 2020

$\u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u094d\u092e\u0923\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0907\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938\U0001f441\ufe0f\U0001f441\ufe0f$

ब्राह्मणों का इतिहास👁️...
@BRAHMIN_0052

MOHIYAL_BRAHMIN_KING
RAJA_PORUS
King_Porus_History

1)King Porus was a famous Indian king, his real name was #Purushotama. He belonged to PURU tribe mentioned in #RIG_VEDA, the Ancient books of India.

2) Porus ruled the Punjab region and expanded his kingdom between the Jhelum River and Chenab River in the Indian Subcontinent. He was a legendary warrior and more war skills. He made the army most powerful with war skills. Even Alexander had also made difficulty to defeat Porus.

3)Word of Mouth Oral tradition in #Mohyal_Brahmin families since ancient times has kept the Great Saga of their Great Elder known to them as Maharaja “ #Puru” alive.

4) When #Alexander the Great invaded India in 326 BC he was challenged near Taxila by a mere chieftain of the Area. He was King #Porus, a #Vaid_Mohyal. After his encounter with Porus, Alexander met with more resistance near Multan where the forces were predominantly #Mohyal.

5)The Bali rulers of Multan fiercely engaged with Alexander's army in skirmishes in which many senior Generals died. Later during the long and bitter fighting in #Multan, Alexander got hurt by an arrow which pierced his chest ,

Richard James
@RJSHutton

I think a plausible explanation is that whatever Corbyn says or does, his critics will denounce - no matter how much hypocrisy it necessitates.

One of the oddest features of the Labour tax row is how raising allowances, which the media allowed the LDs to describe as progressive (in spite of evidence to contrary) through the coalition years, is now seen by everyone as very right wing
— Tom Clark (@prospect_clark) November 2, 2018

Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel

He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:

He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:

He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party