BREAKING! Exit poll for #BavariaElection has #AfD only at 4…

1. CSU +AfD together have ca. 1% less than CSU alone had in 2013!

2. SPD + Greens have about 1% less than they had in 2013 too!

3. Key take-away: little changes in terms of blocks, or even smaller parties, but right has gone largely far right and center-left has gone more left.

4. Aggregate electoral volatility is not always good indicator for individual electoral volatility, but it seems fair to assume most CSU defected to AfD and most SPD defected to Greens.

5. IMPORTANT: despite turning far right to accommodate potential AfD voters, CSU lost not just compared to 2013 Bavarian elections (ca. -12%) but also compared to 2017 federal elections (ca. -3%).

6. MOST IMPORTANT: despite CSU handing campaign to AfD, by issues its emphasized and positions it took, #AfD actually lost slightly compared to 2017 federal elections: (-1.4%).

7. Here are the wins and losses, which show that there is very little change if you see CSU-AfD and SPD-Greens as communicating vessels. Collectively, liberals/libertarians (ie center-right), FDP and FW, won +4.2%.

8. Also very positive is the sharp increase in turnout by 8.4%. Shows both dissatisfaction with CSU hegemony and belief in alternatives.

9. Second exit poll has virtually identical results. Main difference is 0.5% higher for SPD and 0.5% lower for Greens.

10. This is most important graph of them all. CSU can not rule alone, or with AfD (support). This means CSU is forced to make coalition with more centrist party, moving power within CSU also back from radical right to mainstream right!

11. CSU-Greens coalitions seems crazy, but is not impossible. First, Greens in South Germany tend to be quite moderate. Second, CSU leadership will have to step back anyway after this electoral trashing. Third, alternatives are possibly (even) less stable.

12. A more "centrist" CSU in #Bavaria will strengthen more centrist powers within CDU and CDU/CSU in Berlin, which could be exactly what GroKo needs.

13. It will also confirm @ManfredWeber in his recent opportunistic move to the "center", which will have major consequences for Orbán and Fidesz within EPP in the coming year!

14. In short, these election results, as well as several mass demonstrations against nativism and racism, are fantastic opportunity to move politics away from radical right and back to liberal democratic "center".

15. But it requires journalists, politicians and pundits to finally drop narrative in which radical right is portrayed as silent majority and to acknowledge that majority rejects radical right and has diversity of opinions and priorities. #TheEnd

16. Sorry, found some more important data. As is case almost everywhere, massive #gendergap in electorate of #AfD -- 14% of men voted AfD, but only 8% of women. All other parties (even Greens) have relatively small gender gap.

17. As recent @pewglobal study also found, #AfD is by far the most disliked party in Bavaria. On Pew Report, see https://t.co/9YgE7dNttW

18. #AfD electorate has no strong generational profile, except that 60+ is low. This could be special to #Bavaria , which is quite religious and has dominant conservative party (both = old).