What is Reversion to Mean? ๐ง
Mean reversion is a concept in finance that suggests, after an extreme price move, stock prices tend to return back to normal or average levels.
Prices do move away from the mean sometimes but revert to the mean price over time.
Extreme price moves away from the mean and is hard to sustain for extended periods.
๐๐
๐ฎ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ:Extreme Gap-ups and Gap-downs
Stock tends to come back to intraday mean prices
or
Longer term moving average (100 and 200 ema) depending on the time frame you are looking at
๐ธ Hypothesis:
1๏ธโฃ Whenever stocks have a large opening gap, they tend to come back to the mean levels.
2๏ธโฃ Backtesting is done on Nifty500 Universe and probabilities are calculated on stocks which have highest chance to fall based on historical data.
๐๐น๐ข๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฆ:
๐ธ So out of say 10 stocks that have opened Gap-up , each stock is ranked based on a proprietary algorithm and the stock with the highest odds to revert to the mean is selected.
Sell Rules :
๐ธ Enter at 9:16 to 9:20
๐ธ Stoploss Max 10% from entry price for the day
๐ธ Capital : โน1.5 Lakh (Suggested to include drawdowns) excludes the availble margin by broker
๐ธ Capital Deployed : โน1 Lakh Max
๐ฆ๐๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ผ๐๐ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐:
๐ธ Here are the charts that show trades where stop-losses were hit.
๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ธ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐
๐ธ Model was trained for 7 years where all type of market conditions (Bullish, Bearish & Sideways)were covered and a volume filter was applied which filtered 257 stocks from 500.
๐ธ This is an ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น rather than compounding, you can withdraw the profits.
๐ธ Here the numbers mean how much the profits are down from the peak profits we made in that particular month. These numbers need not always mean that the p&l went in red.
๐ธ Number of trades that were generated in a month on ๐ค๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ธ-๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ model
๐ธ These are percentage returns in a given month.
๐ธ Example : In March 2022 we made 29000 on โน1 lakh and we lost โน18k in december 2021
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ & ๐๐ผ๐ป๐:
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐ฒ:
Ex:
๐ธ Stock: #JKIL is given a short at 9:08am you need to take entry by 9:17 at market price & short it intraday
๐ธ Stoploss = 10%
๐ธ Position Size = Total Capital/Stock Price
๐ธ Position Size =โน1,00,000/โน315 = Approx 300 Qty of JKIL
๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ๐
๐ธ This is a very volatile strategy
๐ธ In extreme cases, max stop loss of 10% on capital can hit. Assuming you are not taking leverage, else it can be even more.
๐ธ Stop loss at 10% or Upper Circuit price, whichever is lower.
๐ธ If you do not execute using limit orders, slippage can cause losses
๐ธ We do not recommend using broker provided intraday leverage
๐ธ You cannot randomly participate in trades, you need to take all trades to get model returns