Smaller, new tokens are explicitly manipulated and the lack of shorting leads to exponential price moves.
1/ Some things *I think* I’ve learned messing around in crypto for the last 12 months.
Smaller, new tokens are explicitly manipulated and the lack of shorting leads to exponential price moves.
More liquidity plus shorting pressure invites greater efficiency, which is the killer of exponential moves.
Unless you have good reason to believe you’re early, assume you’re late.
(And, therefore, the exit liquidity.)
For stuff I expect to go exponential, I find selling in line with logarithmic moves a useful framework.
There’s a ton of leverage in crypto and cross-CEX / DEX margin management is non-trivial.
Keep your eyes on open interest and funding rates to understand liquidation risk.
The markets tend to move in seasons.
L1 season. Altcoin season. NFT season.
You succeed by either front-running the next season or ignoring them entirely.
There’s no need to get cute during a sentiment frenzy.
(But don’t let yourself get caught up either.)
If the “vampire attack” fails to attract sticky liquidity, the protocol does too.
But it’s probably safe to assume most farming rewards are going to zero.
If one of the legs has a risk of going to zero, your whole bag can go to zero.
(Uniswap v3 model complicates this)
This is usually true where APRs are the highest (“duh”). Again, position sizing is key. (Or buy insurance.)
And if you’re going to interact with a potentially shady contract, use a hot wallet.
If you're trading, understand that markets can move against you violently when you're sleeping.
It can be information overload.
Finding trusted curators can be key to separating signal from noise.
Understand who owns the token you're buying and when their lockup period ends.
