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Saved by @mahim_dr

“How do you know?”
You never know!

In investing, you have to act on incomplete knowledge.

I came across a great article by @honam lately.

In it, he discusses his decision-making under the condition of an unknowable future.

I think the learnings are worth sharing 👇🏼

 “The truth is, in the beginning, we never knew how things would turn out.” - Ho Nam

When you analyze a company, you (hopefully) come up with an investment thesis at the end.

But it’s nothing more than that - a thesis.
The future is yet unwritten thus unknown.
Sequoia’s Mike Moritz has beautifully described an initial investment as a “giant step into the unknown.”

That’s why your work isn’t done after the decision to buy.
Investing is a journey.

You have to reevaluate your investments constantly.
Ho Nam’s article offers four questions (we’ll discuss three) that can help you do that and decide whether you should hold, sell, or double down.

Although they’re primarily VC (Venture Capital) focused, I believe we can all learn something from them.
1. Does the company generate cash?

Especially in the VC world, but also with bigger and more established companies, it’s not a given companies make money.

There’s a tendency to overpay for vision and underpay for value at the moment.

But Cash-Flow is a form of safety.
Companies that make money survive bad times when companies that don’t die.

“Difficult times are when the best companies separate from the pack.”
Learning:

First, look for what’s already there (Cash-Flow, etc.) and only afterward think about what ‘might’ can be built on that in the future.
2. What is the moat/competitive advantage?

Every attractive long-term option has to have something that makes it unique, inimitable.

No matter how good the profits or cash-flows are, if nothing protects them, it’s just a matter of time that they’ll vanish.
Learning:

Look for structures (positive feedback loops, a mission-driven culture, etc.) that give the company a long-term advantage.

Especially young companies only survive if they offer something others don’t.
3. How much liquidity do you need / How much liquidity do you want?

This third point is primarily important to figure out when to exit.

After the company got successful, new liquidity has to flow into the company (higher salaries, more employees, more projects).
But when the time comes that the amount of liquidity the company “wants” not “needs” exceeds a certain level, it might be time to call the day and make an exit.

This last point is probably not very practical for most of us (who are not in the VC business).
Yet, I find it interesting how meaningful the relationship and “personal connection” between investors and companies are.

At least for Altos. (The company Ho Nam Co-founded and works for as a Managing Director)
Learning:

If the relationship between stakeholders/investors and the management starts to shake, it might be time to call it an end.

Same or at least similar priorities are important.
If you liked this thread, I would appreciate your support by Liking, Retweeting, or Commenting on it.

For more content like this, feel free to follow me @MnkeDaniel

Here’s the original Article by @honam:
https://t.co/f34Wg4BMXN
If you’re interested in another quick and very informative read, check out this article by @joshtarasoff :

https://t.co/W1uq4pQOUY
People who might find this interesting:

@realdennishong
@heymaxkoh
@ValueInvestorAc
@DividendGrowth
@daniel_toloko
@Invesquotes
@yliownyc
@EugeneNg_VCap
@LiviamCapital

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Daniel
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Peter Cundill might be the least known Superinvestor of the last century.

The Cundill Value Fund he managed achieved a little over 15% compounded return over 33 years.

This is more than 100x on your initial investment.

This is his Investment Philosophy👇🏼


1. A Whole Lot Of Patience

Cundill’s most important trait is patience.

Great ideas often come early to you.

Reality is complex and things take time to play out.

The worst mistakes are made when investors decide to sell these great ideas because they fear opportunity costs.

2. Always Change A Winning Game

Never change a running system, but always change the game.

Nothing wins forever.

Create an investing framework and stick with it but change where you apply it.

Things that outperformed will eventually stop doing so and the other way around.

3. Be International

Great opportunities exist in all kinds of markets.

As discussed above, changing where you play can be important to stay on top.

One way to change your playing field is to expand into different countries.

4. Great Poets Borrow

Decades ago, Cundill already emphasized on the importance of what many call “cloning” today.

To find investment ideas, looking at what other successful investors own can be helpful.

Ideally, you build a network of investors you gather ideas from.
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Daniel
Daniel
@MnkeDaniel
Li Lu is a well-known Superinvestor who has achieved a compounded annual return of about 30% since 1998.

He is also known for managing the money of his good friend Charlie Munger.

Today, he turns 56 years old, and on this occasion, here is some of his timeless wisdom👇🏼


1. Why Value Investing Works

The market isn’t created for value investors.

It is built in a way that increases the urge to speculate.

That’s why businesses are so often misprized in the short term.

Value investors can benefit from this circumstance.

2. Understand Who You Are

You’ll be more interested in some industries/topics than in others.

And in investing, you can choose in what industries you’ll look for opportunities.

Investors should use this advantage and be sure about their circle of competence.

3. Be a Journalist

Being an investor is a lot like being a research journalist.

You have to dig into the company on a level that journalists do when they research their stories.

You also need to clearly articulate your thesis and research and bring it to paper.

4. Find the Truth

A journalist also has to find the truth before he publishes a story.

Same goes for an investor. It could be fatal if he makes a decision before he knows “the truth” about a company.

Thus, he has to avoid all sorts of biases and misleading influences.
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Daniel
Daniel
@MnkeDaniel
There are only a handful of investors with high-teen performance over decades.

Walter Schloss is one of them.

He achieved a 20% annualized return over 47 years.

$10,000 would've turned into over $50 million.

Here's how he did that👇🏼


1. Little Background

Walter Schloss learned investing from Benjamin Graham, just like Buffett.

Buffett also mentioned Schloss in many letters and in his article on the Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville.

Accordingly, Schloss followed a value investing philosophy.

However, like every great investor, he also did things differently than Buffett or other peers.

Today, we will analyze the most critical points and the things that differentiate Schloss.

In the end, there’ll also be an Investing Checklist by him and his son.

2. Correctness of Judgement

More important than the predictions of analysts or experts is your own judgment.

And it’s your responsibility to make sure it’s correct.

Most people fail to test their judgment and decisions regularly.

How you approach upcoming news on your investments is critical for a correct judgment.

Being skeptical is much more helpful than trying to fit news into your thesis.

You shouldn’t need to convince yourself of an investment.

It should be convincing because of the facts.
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Daniel
Daniel
@MnkeDaniel
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is one of the most successful investors of all time.

He turned ~$100 into $5.8 billion and never managed outside money.

That's a 67% CAGR over 37 years

He never wrote a book, memos, or investing letters.

However, there are some interviews and transcripts👇

Here's a compiled PDF:
https://t.co/ypNv9QeUx9

If you have additional material, please let me know, and I'll update the PDF.

Follow the Substack for free to get all the Resources I read to learn more about investing.
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Daniel
Daniel
@MnkeDaniel
Charlie Munger said that reading was the main reason for his success in life.

As a generalist, he reads about all kinds of topics.

I’m sure a List of Charlie Munger’s Book Recommendations is among the top 1% of lists you can get.

So here it is👇🏼


Influence - The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini

Charlie Munger probably read enough on human psychology to become a professor himself.

His legendary talk at Harvard showcased this.

Robert Cialdini’s “Influence” was one of the books he learned from.


The Outsiders by William N. Thorndike Jr.

The Outsiders is about extraordinary CEOs who outperformed their peers by being radically different.

It’s an industry classic and recommended by Munger and many greats of the industry.


Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor E. Frankl

Viktor Frankl was an Austrian psychologist and Auschwitz (concentration camp) survivor.

Man’s Search for Meaning is Frankl’s autobiography and deals with his theory of “Logotherapy.”

A theory about finding meaning and purpose.


The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin

Benjamin Franklin was an inventor, scientist, writer and political philosopher.

Oh, he’s also kind of known for being one of the United States' founding fathers.

Franklin is one of the eminent dead teachers of Charlie Munger.
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This is Kuinini ‘Nini’ Manumua, the woman who was ultimately displaced by inclusion of Laurel Hubbard.

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सा विद्या या विमुक्तये...
@raghav_aanya
कुंडली में 12 भाव होते हैं। कैसे ज्योतिष द्वारा रोग के आंकलन करते समय कुंडली के विभिन्न भावों से गणना करते हैं आज इस पर चर्चा करेंगे।
कुण्डली को कालपुरुष की संज्ञा देकर इसमें शरीर के अंगों को स्थापित कर उनसे रोग, रोगेश, रोग को बढ़ाने घटाने वाले ग्रह


रोग की स्थिति में उत्प्रेरक का कार्य करने वाले ग्रह, आयुर्वेदिक/ऐलोपैथी/होमियोपैथी में से कौन कारगर होगा इसका आँकलन, रक्त विकार, रक्त और आपरेशन की स्थिति, कौन सा आंतरिक या बाहरी अंग प्रभावित होगा इत्यादि गणना करने में कुंडली का प्रयोग किया जाता है।


मेडिकल ज्योतिष में आज के समय में Dr. K. S. Charak का नाम निर्विवाद रूप से प्रथम स्थान रखता है। उनकी लिखी कई पुस्तकें आज इस क्षेत्र में नए ज्योतिषों का मार्गदर्शन कर रही हैं।
प्रथम भाव -
इस भाव से हम व्यक्ति की रोगप्रतिरोधक क्षमता, सिर, मष्तिस्क का विचार करते हैं।


द्वितीय भाव-
दाहिना नेत्र, मुख, वाणी, नाक, गर्दन व गले के ऊपरी भाग का विचार होता है।
तृतीय भाव-
अस्थि, गला,कान, हाथ, कंधे व छाती के आंतरिक अंगों का शुरुआती भाग इत्यादि।

चतुर्थ भाव- छाती व इसके आंतरिक अंग, जातक की मानसिक स्थिति/प्रकृति, स्तन आदि की गणना की जाती है


पंचम भाव-
जातक की बुद्धि व उसकी तीव्रता,पीठ, पसलियां,पेट, हृदय की स्थिति आंकलन में प्रयोग होता है।

षष्ठ भाव-
रोग भाव कहा जाता है। कुंडली मे इसके तत्कालिक भाव स्वामी, कालपुरुष कुंडली के स्वामी, दृष्टि संबंध, रोगेश की स्थिति, रोगेश के नक्षत्र औऱ रोगेश व भाव की डिग्री इत्यादि।
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
WEAPONS OF MAHADEV

Sarvaripati Shiva is one of the most fearsome manifestations of Mahadev. Assigned with destroying all of the universes at the end of time, Shiva is one of the most fearsome warriors. He is the Mrityunjaya.
Here are some weapons associated with him:


TRISHULA: the 3 pointed blades denote creation, maintenance, and destruction or the 3 Kalas – Past, Present and Future. They also represent 3 Gunas – Sattva, Rajas and Tamas).
Shiva’s trishul can only be stopped by Shiva himself.
@onlyonenetra @DetheEsha


Trishul is also said to represent Ida, Pingala, and Sushumna. These are the three basic nadis – the left, the right and the central – in the pranamaya kosha, or the energy body of the human system.
@iamkamyabuch @unever_followme


PARASHU: axe with 4 cutting edges which Shiva gave to Parashurama. In his anger, Parashurama used the parashu to get rid of the all the Earth’s tyrannical kshatriya caste twenty-one times over.
@harshasherni


CHANDRAHASA SWORD: The divine sword Chandrahasa literally means ‘the laughter of the moon’. Ravana gave this sword to Indrajit on different occasions especially to fight against Devas.
GIRISH: A special sword of Shiva with unique characteristics.
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Angela Jamison
@AnJamison
@TomthunkitsMind @buzz\_chronicles @buzz\\\_chronicles @buzz_chronicles save as category @pdfmakerapp grab @pdfmakerapp grab this @readwiseio save @readwiseio save thread @threader compile summarize @Threadreaderapp unroll please @ttttreads unroll @unrollthread.com @SaveToBookmarks
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Siddharth Karamcheti
Siddharth Karamcheti
@siddkaramcheti
How can we use language supervision to learn better visual representations for robotics?

Introducing Voltron: Language-Driven Representation Learning for Robotics!

Paper: https://t.co/gIsRPtSjKz
Models: https://t.co/NOB3cpATYG
Evaluation: https://t.co/aOzQu95J8z

🧵👇(1 / 12)


Videos of humans performing everyday tasks (Something-Something-v2, Ego4D) offer a rich and diverse resource for learning representations for robotic manipulation.

Yet, an underused part of these datasets are the rich, natural language annotations accompanying each video. (2/12)

The Voltron framework offers a simple way to use language supervision to shape representation learning, building off of prior work in representations for robotics like MVP (https://t.co/Pb0mk9hb4i) and R3M (https://t.co/o2Fkc3fP0e).

The secret is *balance* (3/12)

Starting with a masked autoencoder over frames from these video clips, make a choice:

1) Condition on language and improve our ability to reconstruct the scene.

2) Generate language given the visual representation and improve our ability to describe what's happening. (4/12)

By trading off *conditioning* and *generation* we show that we can learn 1) better representations than prior methods, and 2) explicitly shape the balance of low and high-level features captured.

Why is the ability to shape this balance important? (5/12)
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Share for the benefit of everyone.

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As per Skanda Puran, Kartikeya had narrated to Muni Agastya about the signs of the coming death. This is as per this ancient scripture.


If one experiences the air coming out of right nostril continuously then it is observed that the person dies within three years. If the breathing is continuous towards upper side from both the nostrils, then the person can die within two three days.

If the breathing is through the mouth instead of the nostrils then the person may live only for two days. The person should take into coignance these signs of the occurance of any sudden death.

As per astrology when the Surya is in the 7th house and Chandrama is in its own house and the breathing is only through the right nostril then the danger exists. If you see a yellow black coloured figure who becomes invisible immediately then the life span is limited to 2 years.

If any person sneezes, passes urine, stool and semen all together he has only a year more to live. If a person sees blue coloured snakes flying in the sky then he has only six more months to live. If a person sees any thing opposite to its real self like colours
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Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
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@VIBHU_Tweet
Santkumaras-The four adorable kids of the Universe.

The Kumaras r the four sages who roam the Universe as children from the Puranic texts of Hinduism named,Sanaka, Sanatana,Sanandana& Sanatkumara.They r described as the first mind-born creations &sons of the creator God Brahma.


Brahma,who had received the knowledge of Puranas from the Universal being(God Himself), imbibed this to his 4 Kumaras.
Sanat Kumaras then taught the Puranas to Narada.Narada transmitted it to Krishna Dwaipayana who in turn scripted them in monumental epic documents of 18 Puranas.

The Vishnu Purana is recorded in two parts,the Vishnu Purana & Naradiya Purana.The teachings of Sanaka of the Kumara brothers r contained in the Naradiya Purana which is also divided in two parts, the first part containing the teachings of Sanaka &second part,teachings of others.


Born from Brahma's mind,4 Kumars took lifelong vows of celibacy against their father's wishes.They r said to wander throughout materialistic &spiritualistic universe without any desire but with the aim to teach.All 4 brothers studied Vedas from their Childhood&travelled together.


The Bhagwata Purana lists the Kumaras among the 12 Mahajanas(great devotees or bhaktas) who although being eternally liberated souls from birth, still became attracted to the devotional service of Vishnu from their already enlightened state.
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Did you know?
Ahilyabai Holkar was one of India's
greatest women rulers of all time.

Ahilyabai was Born on May 31,1725 in the village of Chondi,Jamkhed distt,Maharashtra to a man named Mankoji Shinde,who was the Patil(Chief) of a village and a member of proud Dhangar Community.


Despite the fact that girls' education was a farther dream in those days, Ahilyabai was homeschooled by her father.
Ahilya didn't belong to any royal family but in a twist of fate she is still remembered as one of the most revered Queen in the history.


While they were living their humdrum lives, one day Malhar Rao Holkar, commander of the Peshwa Bajirao & Lord of the Malwa stopped in Chondi on his way to Pune, where he couldn't help but notice a young 8yrs old Ahilyabai in the temple service feeding the poor & hungry.

He was so impressed by the sheer innocence&beauty with simplicity character of Ahilyabai dat he asked her hand in marriage for his son Khanderao Holkar.Just like that she got married to Khanderao in 1733 at a tender age of 8&became a bride of esteemed Maratha community of Holkars

But destiny had something else in store for her as her husband died in the Battle of Kumbher in 1754 leaving her widow at 29.Distressed Ahilyabai was to commit Sati when her father-in-law Malhar Rao refused to let it happen.
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