The potentially record-shattering extreme heat weather forecasts for the Pacific NW are pretty shocking, but some folks keep getting the climate change connection wrong.

This guy for instance: https://t.co/36IaHNDLNq
He states as a supposed ‘golden rule’ that “the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming”. This is nonsense - but it’s worth thinking about why.
Any extreme event can have both ultimate and proximate causes. The proximate cause could be a frontal system, a jet stream meander, a hurricane etc. which are not unique. But this all takes place within the climatology, which as we know, is changing.
The Mass claim is based on a naive accounting of the proximate and ultimate causes. He takes the weather-related anomaly (large) and compares it to climatological anomaly (smaller) and concludes that the climate change fraction gets smaller if the weather anomaly grows.
But this leads to a logical paradox. Take a situation where climate change now means that we can experience an extreme that could effectively never* happen under the previous climate [how near we are to this point is not relevant for the argument].

*a v. low probability
Mass would claim that this situation has less of climate change attribution than a more common event, even though it would never have happened without climate change. That is absurd.
Instead it is much more coherent (and practical) to judge attribution based on thresholds. What is likelihood of exceeding, say, 105°F under the previous climate (P) and the new situation (N)? The fractional attribution to climate change is then (N-P)/N.
So if P=0 (the extreme was never going to happen before), the attribution to climate change is 100%. If the odds of an event have doubled, then climate change is 50% responsible etc. This is far more intuitive and more closely aligned with impacts which are often threshold-based.
I discussed this more thoroughly a while back: https://t.co/fGxBioWDJr and the analysis still holds up.
What it means for the Pacific NW is that there will be a very high attribution to climate change for the upcoming event and the exact numbers will depend on how hot it really gets. And the hotter it gets, the larger the attribution will be.

Regardless of cause though, stay safe!

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Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?


Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website
https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir

BAU’s official Twitter account


BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU

Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.


In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.

In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.

This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.

In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.