Thoughts on growth

I find the investors typically heavily underestimate multiple contractions + expansions in their theses. If your thesis is that the narrative will actually change as new better/worse results come in, multiples will move to incorporate higher growth or whatever

I'm sure it's a conservatism thing, but I'm also sure that deserved multiple expansion is one of the most important things to look for. See - hello fresh, sea Ltd. Both had radical reevaluations of their businesses.
I'm also of the opinion that the reason these companies go up so quickly is because now, the market is much better at incorporating information and narratives are shifting so quickly. Hello fresh went from a dogshit meal box Co. To a grocery delivery/logistics leader
On hello fresh - from less than 1x sales to 3x sales as they proved margin and profitability and their thesis was proved in 2 years - from 10 euro to 70 euro.
Being the first, or catching it quickly enough is the key to world beating returns now. In addition, I think this is why momentum has worked so well - the change in perception of business quality has been so quick, but not quick enough for a lot of cos, especially wrt risk free
Rate comparisons. The best software companies will have an end state that looks like verisign. 30x EBITDA growing 5% a year. If you can catch a fantastic company at 100x EBITDA growing 50% a year slowing to 5% in 7 years, you make a lot of money.
And so if you catch sea at 30x EBITDA, but sea really deserves to be at 100x EBITDA during the reevaluation, then momentum works juuuust fine.
I've also noticed a trend of smaller companies breaking out under this framework - $clpt, $apps(someone I know is up an unbelievable amount on $apps), $oprx, as the market realizes "wait these aren't small cap shit cos, there are amazing businesses underneath"
And the multiples go from small cap shit Co to software/great biotech - driving huge returns.

So - anyone want to send some great small caps or hello fresh/sea Ltd like companies over?

@fahdananta brought $clpt to my attention - anyone else have ideas?

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1. Mini Thread on Conflicts of Interest involving the authors of the Nature Toilet Paper:
https://t.co/VUYbsKGncx
Kristian G. Andersen
Andrew Rambaut
Ian Lipkin
Edward C. Holmes
Robert F. Garry

2. Thanks to @newboxer007 for forwarding the link to the research by an Australian in Taiwan (not on

3. K.Andersen didn't mention "competing interests"
Only Garry listed Zalgen Labs, which we will look at later.
In acknowledgements, Michael Farzan, Wellcome Trust, NIH, ERC & ARC are mentioned.
Author affiliations listed as usual.
Note the 328 Citations!
https://t.co/nmOeohM89Q


4. Kristian Andersen (1)
Andersen worked with USAMRIID & Fort Detrick scientists on research, with Robert Garry, Jens Kuhn & Sina Bavari among


5. Kristian Andersen (2)
Works at Scripps Research Institute, which WAS in serious financial trouble, haemorrhaging 20 million $ a year.
But just when the first virus cases were emerging, they received great news.
They issued a press release dated November 27, 2019:

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Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.