THREAD: 15 of the most useful razors and rules I've found.

Rules of thumb that simplify decisions.

Bezos' Razors:

• If unsure what action to take, let your 80-year-old self make it.

• If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.

Skinner's Law:

• If procrastinating on an item, you only have 2 options:

1. Make the pain of not doing it greater than the pain of doing it.

2. Make the pleasure of doing it greater than the pleasure of not doing it.

Luck Razor:

• If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix.

In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made.

Bragging Razor:

• If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.

• If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim.

The map is not the terrain.

Josh Waitzkin might be the most INTERESTING person alive.

He doesn't have Twitter. And he barely uses the internet.

I've compiled my favorite 5 MENTAL MODELS of his below.

THREAD...

WAITZKIN MODEL 1 - DEPTH OVER WIDTH

His life so far:

1. Chess prodigy + National champ

2. 2x world champion in Tai Chi push hands

3. The 1st black belt in Jiu-Jitsu under Marcelo Garcia (GOAT)

4. He's now in an unknown ocean town mastering surfing + advising elite investors

The Waitzkin paradox:

He's achieved more WIDTH across disciplines in 43 years than most could in 100 lives

How?

His obsession with DEPTH over WIDTH.

His life is the testimony to deep work and singular focus.

He spends 5-10 years of his life dedicated to each craft

Even when he approaches a new discipline, he goes for DEPTH within the DEPTH

E.g. Chess

Most just play countless games

Instead, Josh insists on having only 3 pieces on the board - King & Pawn vs King

He drills micro positions until he understands them from first principles

“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times” - Bruce Lee

Waitzkin's theory is that once you've understood one thing so deeply in the discipline - you understand the principles

You can then copy & paste them

THREAD: The top 0.1% of marketing mental models.

Compressing a 6-year career into the best 8 ideas:

1. Contrast Is A Drug

• Rolls Royce stopped exhibiting at car shows

• They started exhibiting at private aircraft shows

• "If you've been looking at jets all afternoon, a £300,000 car is an impulse buy. It's like putting the sweets next to the counter" - @rorysutherland

2. The Best Content Involves A Red Pill

• "If you want to build a good podcast, following, or blog - you've gotta create your red pill"

• Hand society something they're not hearing anywhere

• Society says blue pill. Your content says red pill.

(@finnscave via @ShaanVP)

• The irony is that the red pill metaphor is itself a red pill - once you see it, you can never unsee it.

• The best content creators on the internet all have their own red pill, which makes their content so enticing.

E.g. @jockowillink's red pill:

• Society's Blue Pill: Writing is a boring activity from school

• @david_perell's Red Pill: Writing online is the fastest way to accelerate your career

4 Learning phases:

1. Unconscious incompetence - "I don't know how bad I am"

2. Conscious incompetence - "This sucks. I know how bad I am"

3. Conscious competence - "I can do this if I focus"

4. Unconscious competence - "I don't remember the last 10 minutes of driving my car"

If I had to give a lecture series on marketing, here's 11 points I'd include:

1. Data is like protein:

It’s valuable - but it shouldn’t be your *only* input.

If all your decisions are guided by A/B tests, you’ll eventually end up with a porn site.

2. The infinite ROI skill stack:

A. Understand how people work - Lindy.

B. Understand platforms + culture - Ever-changing.

Live in the barbell.

3. The best marketers are open source for the *first time ever*

• You can visit ad libraries
• You can sign up to newsletters
• You can see the copy on their website

There's no centralised database like Github - but it's there for the resourceful

4. Copy or reverse-engineer

A. If you want to do good marketing, just copy the greats.

B. If you want to do great marketing, reverse engineer the principles behind great marketing.

Warning: You will then be copied.

5. Think with headlines first

Mr. Beast has full time staff who's sole job is to write headlines for YouTube videos.

If the headline is good, they then make the video.

This is the inverse of making the headline fit the story.

Think of distribution before creation.

Flying is accidentally the best ever environment for DEEP work and reflection.

Writers like @rickygervais do their best work on airplanes.

Here's 6 reasons why.

THREAD...

What looks like a bug - can often be a feature.

“A change of perspective is worth 80 IQ points.”

The restrictions we face on airplanes is what makes the experience so liberating.

AIRPLANE FEATURE 1 - HIGH EXIT COSTS

You can't find any escapes.

If you try to escape, you face death.

Negative incentives are built into the system.

"Incentives are a super power." - Charlie Munger

AIRPLANE ADVANTAGE 2 - NO INPUTS

There's no newsfeeds to refresh. No emails to reply to.

It's like knowing your heroin dealer is in a coma.

Boredom is built into the system.

Your monkey mind can't access dopamine - so it starts creating its own.

It is a distraction-free environment:

1. No socialising - You don't know anyone. No small talk.

2. No sound inputs - The engine acts as white noise.

3. No visual inputs - The seating structure means you see barely anybody.

THREAD: The top 0.1% of ideas I’ve stumbled upon on the internet.

The rabbit holes (without the distractions).

1. Directional Arrows of Progress

“Study the undeniable arrows of progress.” - @wolfejosh

• The future is kinda like a crossword puzzle.

• Nobody is going to spell out for you - but clues exist.

• Wolfe uses the trend line of history as clues for the future.

• E.g. Look at this directional arrow of progress

• Every time the computer gets more powerful, smaller and closer to our bodies.

• Wolfe used this trend line to bet that Brain-Machine interfaces will be huge and started funding companies in the space.

2. The Cobra Effect

”When a measure becomes a goal, it ceases to become a measure” - @G_S_Bhogal

• British colonialists tried to reduce the snake population in India.

• They offered bounties for dead cobras with cash given out to the killers

• The incentives back-fired...

• The local population started breeding cobras & killing them.

• When the government discovered this, the reward program was scrapped.

• The cobra breeders then released their $0 snakes into the street, making the problem much worse.

Marketing is the ultimate meta skill.

Lifehack: Most people are awful at marketing.