Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to

In an analysis of interviews conducted yesterday, including in Arizona (where a poll is ongoing), there was modest evidence of a shift in Joe Biden's direction after Trump's COVID diagnosis. That said, one day of interviews is not nearly enough to reach any firm conclusions

The shift, though, would be material if confirmed and it was statistically significant, controlling for the demographic and political variables used in weighting. That said, it's still just one day of interviews. We'll have to wait and see here.

Of the two results, the biggest surprise was probably Florida, where we found Biden+5 with a R+4 sample. This is a fully updated voter file that reflects some meaningful GOP registration gains in the states.

It's just a subsample, so big MoEs here, but we found no evidence of the big Trump gains among Hispanic voters in Florida or in Miami-Dade County. Biden even narrowly led a (very small) sample of Cuban voters; they were R 47-28 by registration. Again, small samples but...

Warning. With remote access to e-poll books (yes, vendors have it & I’m told they pass around a url to watch), bad actors cld track in real time how many votes they need & where to alter election outcomes. This wld NOT work w/ vote by mail. 1/

I remain very concerned about e-pollbooks, which have exploded in use since 2016. A former election official told me about the Election Day remote access & URL. 2/

I wrote about America’s largest e-pollbook vendor, Knowink, here. Knowink is managed by a former Republican election official. It’s product manager is Religious Right. It’s products are in 23 states now. 3/

I was told about the passing around of a URL re: Tenex. They can watch voters sign in as they sign in. They can tell what party they are from. 4/

In theory, w/ e-pollbooks (electronic sign ins), bad actors cld fraudulently sign in real voters who rarely vote in order to pad vote totals. This wld work best at the end of Election Day. Mail voting wld obviously throw this off. 5/

(TRUE STORY) In the weeks before the 2020 election, ex-Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne was desperately trying to get to me through an intermediary to share info about the coming election he claimed was critical.

I ignored his overtures.

Donald Trump invited him to the Oval Office.

I had messages from Byrne's rep on every social media platform I'm reachable on. I decided that his public instability was such that I wanted nothing to do with him. Incredible to think that the President of the United States—the most powerful man alive—made a different decision.

MORE/

NOTE/ What's telling about this—and what U.S. media might wonder about, now—is whether Byrne was contacting me to tell the same tale he told the president in the Oval. Seems unlikely, right? Seems like maybe Byrne is just peddling nonsense wherever he thinks he can get attention?

NOTE2/ Here's what I can tell everyone (and media): Byrne represented—via his rep—he'd been in touch with Roger Stone, and wanted to talk to journalists pre-election about the FBI/Comey. I'm sure I'm not the only one he contacted. After all, we know he contacted the White House.

Georgia GOP and Trump campaign's suit in Chatham County is in court this morning.

GOP witness conceded that he did not know whether a stack of 53 challenged ballots were received on time.

The board's witness testified they were.

Background:

You can follow along with the hearing here.

Trump's Michigan suit also heads to a speedy hearing today at 11:30 p.m. Eastern Time, per a new order.

We'll be on top of them both at @LawCrimeNews.

Meanwhile in the Georgia case:

Sabrina German, the director of Chatham County's Voter Registration Office, backs up the prior witness's testimony that those 53 ballots were received on time.

None of them were double votes, she said.

Jeff Harris, from the Democratic Party of Georgia, notes both of the GOP witnesses conceded they had no idea about when those 53 ballots were received.

"They have been flatly incapable of proffering competent evidence to prove that point."

People bellow out "lock him up!" about Joe Biden at Trump's rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania

"the misery of unleashed work and horror" #wut

Following a remarkably low energy performance in Minnesota on Friday evening, Trump sounds sedated during his first of four rallies on Saturday in Pennsylvania

As 1,000 Americans die each day from coronavirus, Trump calls Hunter Biden's (alleged) emails "the biggest story anywhere in the world"

Trump does not sound like a guy anticipating a big victory in 72 hours. His audience in Bucks County isn't really reacting as he drones on and on.

7 November 2020 #MAGAanlayis #2

@JoshuaMacias is a Political Prisoner & We Must Get Him Out of Jail

The picture below is NOT Joshua. But, if you click on the link, you'll see him and the legal defense fund we MUST support. Please give what you

The #Democrats and media hate #Trump because they fear him. Unlike them, Trump is authentic. He can’t be bought, can’t be controlled, and is able to bypass the toxic media and communicate very effectively with the people. He is the political establishment’s worst nightmare. 1/14

1. I'm going to go through a few issues with the NY Post article on Biden, which I won't link to, but you will probably see on Twitter today.

Follow along if interested.

2. First the information comes from a laptop that was allegedly "dropped off at a repair shop in Biden’s home state of Delaware" and never picked up.

The "shop owner," who is not identified, "couldn’t positively identify the customer as Hunter Biden"

3. The "shop owner" thinks it was Hunter Biden because of a Beau Biden sticker on the laptop.

This makes no sense. You drop off an expensive Mac laptop at a repair shop and don't leave your name or contact information?

4. But then, after claiming the shop owner couldn't identify the customer, the piece includes a receipt that was issued to "Hunter Biden" and includes an email and phone #

So why would the shop owner produce a receipt for Hunter Biden if he didn't know the ID of the customer?

5. The piece claims the shop owner then alerted the FBI to the existence of the laptop and it was later subpoenaed by a grand jury.

But the grand jury subpoena shown does not connect the laptop to Hunter Biden.

1/ There's been lots of speculation about why Antrim County, MI initially reported incorrect results on Wed. The results have since been corrected, but people are naturally wondering what happened. Here's the likely technical explanation and my assessment.

The Esper firing sums up well the extremely frustrating and toxic dynamic between Trump's political maneuvers and governing strategy and his fanbase.

Step 1: There is a decisive moment, crisis, or major opportunity

Step 2: Trump talks big, takes photo-ops, and generates extreme reactions from his opponents.

Step 3: Trum fails to take action, sends mixed signals, and generally bungles the opportunity.

Step 4: Trump lashes out at the people who gave him bad advice ... and then talks big again.

Step 5: Trump's fans announce that we're about to "see the real Trump," "the gloves are off," "he'll go full bore now," etc.

Rinse, repeat.

I can think of countless examples that fit this patter: John Bolton and Iran, Esper and the BLM riots, reforming legal immigration, building The Wall, removing troops from Afghanistan, Covid stimulus checks...

Seemingly, every consequential issue fits this pattern.

So we're left w/ this situation in which Trump, at least rhetorically, still stands as the candidate of immigration restriction, nationalism, ending wars, law and order, traditional values, etc. Yet he had clear opportunities to act decisively on all of these matters and didn't.

Thread on White House Transition process:

On March 4th 1801 the second president of the United States - John Adams - refused to hand over office to his main rival at the 1800 election, Thomas Jefferson.

The rule of "midday January 20" had not yet been written.

Despite his stubbornness, THE OFFICE SIMPLY LEFT HIM!

Adams was the first president to reside at the new official residence

After Jefferson's swearing in - which the incumbent refused to attend - White House staff began removing Adam’s belongings from the WH.

All security organs ended all official communication.

All presidential staff stopped taking instructions from Adams – THE OFFICE MOVED.

Since then, all WH incumbents prepare early to leave in case they see signs of losing,

to avoid humiliation by the independent organs of state.

The Military, The secret Service, The CIA, FBI and all White House staff, all operate under a code - that of serving a man/woman who has carried the WILL of the people at an election.

Biden has clinched the 270 votes, and when he is officially declared president by all returning officers in the states, the following is going to happen:

Breaking: The DUP and Sinn Fein leaders have sent a joint letter to the European Commission describing as “unacceptable” the alleged threat to the continuity of existing food supplies to Northern supermarkets once the Northern Ireland Protocol takes effect.

2/ The letter, seen by @rtenews, and signed by @DUPleader and @moneillsf, highlights the problem of the need for checks and controls on food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 1 and how that might impact on the supply of food to supermarket chains.

3/ The First/Dep First Ministers write: “It is hard to imagine a more fundamental aspect of everyday life than the purchase of daily food supplies...

4/ "Hence we would ask you to recognise how important it is that the current consideration of the detail of how the Protocol will be applied takes our unique context into account.”

5/ Under the Protocol, food and animal derived products entering NI from Great Britain will be subject to the EU’s food safety regime, meaning that so-called sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks will be required on a range of products destined for supermarket shelves.

We promised people that if we won the Senate, we would send out $2,000 survival checks. They delivered us to victory—and now we MUST deliver.

“Targeting” checks to a smaller group fails to do that. People need help like never before, and we must put money in their pockets.

“Targeting” checks isn’t just bad for people, it’s bad policy too! It’s not humane, it's not smart, it’s not effective, and it’s not even fiscally responsible. Not to mention that it doesn't meet the scale of this crisis.

Help me spread the word about 4 obvious reasons why:

1⃣The survival checks often use 2019 tax data to measure someone’s income.

Millions lost their jobs in 2020 due to COVID—that’s the whole point of this relief!—and therefore their income from 1 or 2 years ago is no longer accurate. They need help now and we must provide it.

Even if someone isn’t one of the nearly 1 million additional people losing their job EVERY single week, they likely lost hours and therefore had their overall income significantly reduced.

By “targeting,” we cut out people who are desperately in need of help.

2⃣The data from people who filed for unemployment shows that more than 20% of those earning between $50k and $70k were still food insecure.

That's up 16% from 2019—and it's why food banks have such long lines. We need to put money in their pockets so they can feed their family.

"much of the social history of the western world over the past three decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good"

-thomas sowell

"hold my beer and watch this"

-andrew cuomo

though i suppose none of us should be surprised.

we live in a time when epidemiologists said that mass protests during a pandemic were OK so long as they were for "social justice"

massively delaying vaccine rollouts for the same reason seems like the next obvious policy.

how about this?

"anyone who needs to go protest racism, sexism, the patriarchy, or the police gets vaccine priority"

i hope i am joking.

i fear i may not be.

@POTUS @DonaldJTrumpJr @FLOTUS @EricTrump @IvankaTrump @realDonaldTrump President Trump, let me start by telling you that I am as MAGA as it gets. I’ve been to rally. My husband, my daughter and I have already cast our vote FOR YOU. However, we need to talk about your rhetoric

Allow us to now begin to share just some of the things we have been collecting for years in anticipation of this moment.

Let's begin with MAGA life coach Brenden Dilley, brimming with confidence the day before the election as he predicted a 45 state landslide for Trump.

And here is Dilley guaranteeing that Democrats "are going to get their asses kicked on Nov. 3"

And here is Dilley boldly predicting that the election would be called on Election Night before the polls even closed in California because "Joe Biden cannot beat Donald J. Trump."

1/ There are plenty of Euros smugly turning up their nose at America's "election chaos" who don't understand a number of key things about the USA. Almost all European countries (in fact, most countries) have mandatory government registration of all residents.

2/ Anytime you move, you must notify government authorities of your new address. Europeans, who have lived with strong centralized states for centuries, simply accept this and have a hard time imagining how it could be different. And it's easy to keep these records in small

3/ countries with small populations. So in Germany, when elections happen, the government sends a vote authorization notice to your address, which you then take to the polls along with your national ID card. This indeed makes for simple elections, since the state

4/ already knows who you are & where you live. In the United States, however, citizens are not obliged to register their address with the government as a general duty. There is no centralized register in the US of where every citizen lives. Americans are much more

5/ skeptical of gov't in this regard than Europeans are. They would never accept a duty to constantly inform the state where they live. Nor is there any national ID card in the US. The closest thing is a driver's license, but if you don't drive, it's quite possible you'll simply

Reading this article (in which I'm quoted near the end), I realized why I have such a strong visceral reaction to some of the negative coverage of @ProfEmilyOster's work on #COVID19 and schools...https://t.co/lE0qHDIJ8v 1/

..The treatment of @ProfEmilyOster reminds of 2016 press coverage of @HillaryClinton! An outsized focus on that woman's flaws had big long-term consequences.(I'm not a media studies or communications person, so I may be totally off, but I swear there's a PhD thesis in here! 2/

On to my promised tweets on #epitwitter data about #SARSCoV2/#COVID19 among children and particularly in school settings. It's less comprehensive than I hoped, but I'm trying not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good... 3/

First, I disagree with the premise of many articles that we don't know enough to start making some conclusions about schools and risk. In particular, @DFTBubbles updates its amazing comprehensive literature syntheses on a regular basis 4/

The studies with the strongest scientific designs are consistent in a few respects: young kids (<10 yo) seem less likely than older children & adults to get & transmit #SARSCoV2 even in settings of close contact like households. It's not zero risk, but much less than adults 5/