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The real danger for the country isnāt the election results, itās the reaction to, and the refusal to accept the results. For more than four years, Trump and the Right Wing Media Echo Chamber have conditioned his supporters to believe the election is āriggedā. They believe itā¦.1/
In a recent thread about collective election anxiety/PTSD, I wrote that āone half the country doesnāt believe in evidence, the other half canāt trust it.ā 2/
This couldnāt more evident than by the fact that 87 percent of Trump supporters believe he will win re-election, despite the fact that⦠3/
ā¦the empirical data that shows Biden *should* win easily. This has resulted in https://t.co/e8JNg5tYmK calculating that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning. To be clear, 10% is a non-zero number, much like the 30% chance that Trump had in 2016. 4/
But the real problem isnāt necessarily about low probabilities, the real problemā¦..or more accurately, the dangerā¦..lies in the pathologically unrealistic expectations of the cult of Trump: 90% of them have been conned into thinking that a 10% probability is a āsure thingā. 5/
In a recent thread about collective election anxiety/PTSD, I wrote that āone half the country doesnāt believe in evidence, the other half canāt trust it.ā 2/
The collective anxiety is the by-product of two unfortunate realities of the Trump era:
— Nick Carmody JD, MS Psych (@Nick_Carmody) October 20, 2020
1)You\u2019ll never go broke if you consistently bet on the ignorance/depravity of 1/3 of this country.
2)One-half of the country doesn\u2019t believe in evidence. The other half can\u2019t trust it.
1/ https://t.co/gY5lzJxNxq
This couldnāt more evident than by the fact that 87 percent of Trump supporters believe he will win re-election, despite the fact that⦠3/
ā¦the empirical data that shows Biden *should* win easily. This has resulted in https://t.co/e8JNg5tYmK calculating that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning. To be clear, 10% is a non-zero number, much like the 30% chance that Trump had in 2016. 4/
But the real problem isnāt necessarily about low probabilities, the real problemā¦..or more accurately, the dangerā¦..lies in the pathologically unrealistic expectations of the cult of Trump: 90% of them have been conned into thinking that a 10% probability is a āsure thingā. 5/
The White House will be won or lost in these eight battleground states ā and Biden is leading in all but one https://t.co/rtXPTpdbnr
In Arizona, Trumpās handling of the pandemic is proving costly, leaving him struggling to match his 2016 performance among those over the age of 65 https://t.co/TTHvr8Sclg
Republicans typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections. But this year, for the first time ever at this stage of a general election, Democrats here are outvoting Republicans ā and by a huge margin https://t.co/BCsVccVn1Y
Most of the attention in Georgia this year is directed toward Atlantaās populous suburbs, which have turned hard against Republicans in the Trump era, But the outcome might come down to a less scrutinized force in this state: white rural voters https://t.co/2W17tsDVyf
All three Rust Belt states that Trump improbably won in 2016 ā Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ā are problematic for the president this year. But Michigan is where things look bleakest. https://t.co/aQo6KIQZVH
In Arizona, Trumpās handling of the pandemic is proving costly, leaving him struggling to match his 2016 performance among those over the age of 65 https://t.co/TTHvr8Sclg
Republicans typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections. But this year, for the first time ever at this stage of a general election, Democrats here are outvoting Republicans ā and by a huge margin https://t.co/BCsVccVn1Y
Most of the attention in Georgia this year is directed toward Atlantaās populous suburbs, which have turned hard against Republicans in the Trump era, But the outcome might come down to a less scrutinized force in this state: white rural voters https://t.co/2W17tsDVyf
All three Rust Belt states that Trump improbably won in 2016 ā Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ā are problematic for the president this year. But Michigan is where things look bleakest. https://t.co/aQo6KIQZVH