1/Zach has the history right (again). I doubt the current political leadership read the book where Summers et al explained what they did, unless they look at borrowed copies. Here it is: https://t.co/4gyFiagaj3

2/ But the summary is that Summers, Geithner, Orszag, Emanuel agreed on telling Obama and Biden in December 2008 that about $800b was an adequate stimulus. Would lower unemployment just below 8% by late 2010. Romer thought $2.1T or $1.7T was needed to achieve full employment.

3/ They wouldn't let her make the case in writing for $1.2T because her number could leak. The reasons for $800b were: they wanted the bill passed by February, so they could move on to health care reform and cap and trade; they had no ways to spend more;

4/ spending more might kick off inflation or cause markets to fall for fear of inflation; that might lead to more bank runs; more bank runs might require a second TARP so they couldn't ask Congress for too much for recovery; Pelosi would give them whatever they asked

5/ for but they didn't think they could get the needed 1 or 2 R Senators quickly if they asked for more; they wanted 60 but had only 58 D Senators; popular "moonshots" or signature items in the package would take too long (Biden asked for that);

So let's look at some of @JoeBiden BS

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, claims to be a "leading Epidemiologist" oves to bash @realDonaldTrump in his Biden commercial. So who is this guy really.

Well he's a democrat hack of course. He's a failed candidate in the 2018 Democratic primary for PA's 10th congressional district. He's a Harvard Grad but actually Feigl-Ding's work focuses on nutrition, health economics. He thinks Vegan's are less susceptible to COVID-19

Dr Nancy Beth Barr claims to be the Medical Director or Family Health Center. USC Grad in Family Medicine. Her focus is:

Abdominal Cramps
Abdominal Migraine
Abdominal Pain
Abnormal Bowel Movement
Abnormal Stool

This is her before she got her makeover to be on Biden commercials and give her expert analysis on how badly Trump did with COVID-19

Dr Thomas Fishbein Claims he's a Surgeon and Executive Director of Transplant Institute.

He Treats

Abdominal Abscess
Abdominal Adhesions
Abdominal Wall Defect
Advanced Heart Failure
Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Dysplasia

Loves to Bash Trump's lack of contact tracing

Joe Biden is winning the election and Donald Trump is trying to pull a literal coup.

Let's talk about where we are, what we know, and separate the things we shouldn't be worried about from the things we absolutely should be worried about.

1/

First and foremost, this election has largely played out as some of us expected it to. There hasn't been some cataclysmic loss. Biden made in-roads, including in Arizona. We're still looking at a possible 300+ electoral college victory if votes are counted.

2/

Last night felt AWFUL for a variety of reasons. Lingering trauma from 2016. A desire to watch the country reject Trump in a major way. The bizarre feeling of watching the race not get called on Election Night as the networks have trained us to expect.

But that was a feeling.

3/

Trump's attempt to steal this election is predicated on that feeling last night and the feeling that somehow this thing is lost even while Biden is winning in a big way.

Trump is determined to use that anxiety and uncertainty and spin it into his own chosen reality.

4/

For months Trump and his goons have told us what they planned to do. Counting would not be finished on Election Night and Trump would use the appearance of momentum to undermine confidence and hopefully stop the counting before momentum swung.

That's what he's doing.

5/

It takes guts to truly face hard truths. But facing them is the only way to protect oneself going forward. This is why I keep reminding people that the Republican Party is beyond repair. 1/

The Republican Party’s internal structures, at the state and federal level, are dominated by people actively opposed to democratic pluralism, rule of law, and U.S. constitutionalism. 2/

Once a political party refuses to drop its support for a leader, in this case Donald Trump, who constantly and consistently betrayed the country throughout his time in office that party cannot be salvaged as a player in U.S. constitutional democracy. 3/

Everybody else, from individual rank and file Democrats to President Joe Biden, must radically overhaul how they deal with people who do not disaffiliate from the Republican Party. 4/

Anybody who remains a Republican at this point must be presumed to be an enemy of U.S. constitutionalism, rather than as somebody with right wing policy views. 5/

No, Mike Pence can't magically do anything on January 6th. No, Louie Gohment can't force the courts to give Pence magic powers. Trump has literally zero chance of magically overturning the election. Stop panicking over imaginary things. This is getting incredibly boring.

There won’t be a civil war. No one will pull off a coup. There won’t be martial law. None of these things are real.

It’s over. But the more clear it becomes that it’s over, the fantasizers on Trump’s side, and the panickers on our side, become more hallucinatory about it.

We have a pandemic, people dying, an economic crisis, people starving, and a runoff election that’s for all the marbles. Yet you’re going to focus on IMAGINARY doomsday scenarios? None of what’s going on is real enough for you? You have to go invent more bad things? Come on.

Those of us who have fought so hard for four years, deserve better than to have our agenda derailed by the doomsday panickers on our side. They don’t care about winning, they’re just addicted to the adrenaline rush of telling themselves they’re going to lose.

In fact the panickers on our side, and the fantasizers on Trump’s side, deserve each other. Both completely removed from reality. Neither interested in helping their own side. Just a shared interest in hallucinating over laugh out loud imaginary scenarios. And of no use to anyone

This Flint MI rally for Biden is a joke. Barry begging somebody to honk for Joe and I didn’t hear one horn. Then he had to scream Joe three times to get him to come out of hiding. Then Biden starts out with 8 yrs under Barry and not one scandal! 😂 Not one but about ten at least

BREAKING. Sir John Major: "Complacency and nostalgia are the route to national decline"

"We are no longer a great power. We will never be so again. In a world of nearly 8 billion people, well under 1% are British"

"We are a top second-rank power"

2) John Major: "Our hefty international influence rested on our history and reputation, buttressed by our membership of the EU and our close alliance with the US.
Suddenly, we are no longer an irreplaceable bridge between Europe and America. We are now less relevant to them both"

3) Sir John: "I do find it surprising that – in the midst of the Covid crisis – the Government appears to be fostering disputes with the Judiciary [...]; the Civil Service, upon whose help the Government depends; and the BBC, still the most respected broadcaster on the planet"

4) Sir John: "#Brexit divided England & Wales from Scotland and Northern Ireland. It divided political parties and families; the young and their elders; business and trade unions; and friend from friend. As its full impact becomes apparent in the New Year, old wounds may re-open"

5) John Major: "There is no consensus on #Brexit, and never has been. It was a bitterly divisive policy, and uncorked a populism that may be difficult to quell.
The Referendum debate was unlike any I have known before. Emotion overcame reality".

1. @JonathanTurley
Trump has only been out of office and, therefore, no longer (purportedly) immunized from criminal prosecution for ~1 month. Also, because of R delay, Garland is still awaiting confirmation. Once Garland is AG, expect a thorough



2. investigation of Trump for inciting insurrection in violation of 18 U.S.C. 2383, together with other federal crimes. Once that investigation is completed, based on the information that is currently public, there is a good chance that Trump will be prosecuted for violating

3. 18 U.S.C. 2383, together with other federal crimes. Not absolutely guaranteed. But a very good chance. The only element of inciting insurrection that is open to credible dispute is Trump’s intent. Is there sufficient evidence that he intended his speech to incite imminent

4. lawlessness? As you know (or should know), criminal intent is invariably established by circumstantial evidence. That means prosecutors must analyze everything Trump did and said (and didn't do or say) before, during and after his incendiary speech.

5. That investigation takes time. Sometimes a lot of time to empanel a grand jury and begin issuing subpoenas and seeking warrants. The fact that Trump's previous crimes, including the 10 felonies outlined in Vol. II of Mueller's report, haven't been prosecuted is irrelevant.

Trump is trying to overturn the election results. I doubt he’ll be successful. But I don’t know it for sure.

In the coming weeks, I’ll be watching two things:

1. Certifications
2. GOP state legislators and

There are two things that are set to happen with the election results in the coming weeks that ordinarily would be formalities, but in a disputed election are crucial.

First is the states' certifications of their results. Second is the selection of electors.

Right now, both processes are clearly on track to make Biden the next president.

Trump's only hope is to upset the apple cart on one or both. Blocking or delaying certifications somehow, or getting partisan GOP state legislators in states Biden won to appoint Trump electors.

Re: certifications, Trump will get little help from officials in the key states— they're mostly Democrats or bipartisan boards, except for GA Sec of State Brad Raffensperger.

Raffensperger is being pressured from the right, but he's pushed back so far

With dim prospects for getting state officials to block certifications, Trump has been trying to get judges to do that, by filing lawsuits.

These lawsuits seem weak so far. But watch if judges start to take any of them

(TRUE STORY) In the weeks before the 2020 election, ex-Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne was desperately trying to get to me through an intermediary to share info about the coming election he claimed was critical.

I ignored his overtures.

Donald Trump invited him to the Oval Office.

I had messages from Byrne's rep on every social media platform I'm reachable on. I decided that his public instability was such that I wanted nothing to do with him. Incredible to think that the President of the United States—the most powerful man alive—made a different decision.

MORE/

NOTE/ What's telling about this—and what U.S. media might wonder about, now—is whether Byrne was contacting me to tell the same tale he told the president in the Oval. Seems unlikely, right? Seems like maybe Byrne is just peddling nonsense wherever he thinks he can get attention?

NOTE2/ Here's what I can tell everyone (and media): Byrne represented—via his rep—he'd been in touch with Roger Stone, and wanted to talk to journalists pre-election about the FBI/Comey. I'm sure I'm not the only one he contacted. After all, we know he contacted the White House.

We promised people that if we won the Senate, we would send out $2,000 survival checks. They delivered us to victory—and now we MUST deliver.

“Targeting” checks to a smaller group fails to do that. People need help like never before, and we must put money in their pockets.

“Targeting” checks isn’t just bad for people, it’s bad policy too! It’s not humane, it's not smart, it’s not effective, and it’s not even fiscally responsible. Not to mention that it doesn't meet the scale of this crisis.

Help me spread the word about 4 obvious reasons why:

1⃣The survival checks often use 2019 tax data to measure someone’s income.

Millions lost their jobs in 2020 due to COVID—that’s the whole point of this relief!—and therefore their income from 1 or 2 years ago is no longer accurate. They need help now and we must provide it.

Even if someone isn’t one of the nearly 1 million additional people losing their job EVERY single week, they likely lost hours and therefore had their overall income significantly reduced.

By “targeting,” we cut out people who are desperately in need of help.

2⃣The data from people who filed for unemployment shows that more than 20% of those earning between $50k and $70k were still food insecure.

That's up 16% from 2019—and it's why food banks have such long lines. We need to put money in their pockets so they can feed their family.

1. When I hear @clairecmc talk about Dems learning to talk to the Piggly Wiggly crowd, I hope she'll want to join/help w my moderate messaging electioneering overall for Ds effort. BC its CRUCIAL to understand- Ds & outside groups tried already to cater to these voters on the

2. persuasion. That in fact, this cycle was the product of a very concerted effort of that strategy driven by high profile data firms on the D side (many of which who've been critical of my work) & it was a complete and total failure for 2 reasons. The main 1 is that it wants

3. to ignore the effect that polarization is having on voter behavior & the limitations that is placing on certain electioneering techniques that USED TO BE EFFECTIVE and are now not. I want to make something really clear- it is only in places where at least 1 element of the D's

4. operation "went rogue" that Biden pulled out wins: GA, where Abrams made electioneering about turning out the new coalition, AZ, where the AZ state party did the same, but with Latino voters, MI & WI where the state parties put into effect base-centric voter turnout strategies

5. at odds w the party's conventional playbook to focus on turnout, and/or places where concentrations of the D's new coalition: college-educated whites + minority voters (and young voters) are so high (like NE 2) that sub-par strategy doesn't matter, turnout surges are naturally

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to

In an analysis of interviews conducted yesterday, including in Arizona (where a poll is ongoing), there was modest evidence of a shift in Joe Biden's direction after Trump's COVID diagnosis. That said, one day of interviews is not nearly enough to reach any firm conclusions

The shift, though, would be material if confirmed and it was statistically significant, controlling for the demographic and political variables used in weighting. That said, it's still just one day of interviews. We'll have to wait and see here.

Of the two results, the biggest surprise was probably Florida, where we found Biden+5 with a R+4 sample. This is a fully updated voter file that reflects some meaningful GOP registration gains in the states.

It's just a subsample, so big MoEs here, but we found no evidence of the big Trump gains among Hispanic voters in Florida or in Miami-Dade County. Biden even narrowly led a (very small) sample of Cuban voters; they were R 47-28 by registration. Again, small samples but...

1/ There are plenty of Euros smugly turning up their nose at America's "election chaos" who don't understand a number of key things about the USA. Almost all European countries (in fact, most countries) have mandatory government registration of all residents.

2/ Anytime you move, you must notify government authorities of your new address. Europeans, who have lived with strong centralized states for centuries, simply accept this and have a hard time imagining how it could be different. And it's easy to keep these records in small

3/ countries with small populations. So in Germany, when elections happen, the government sends a vote authorization notice to your address, which you then take to the polls along with your national ID card. This indeed makes for simple elections, since the state

4/ already knows who you are & where you live. In the United States, however, citizens are not obliged to register their address with the government as a general duty. There is no centralized register in the US of where every citizen lives. Americans are much more

5/ skeptical of gov't in this regard than Europeans are. They would never accept a duty to constantly inform the state where they live. Nor is there any national ID card in the US. The closest thing is a driver's license, but if you don't drive, it's quite possible you'll simply

I am sick of hearing from the left, right and media, "but people fear him because 70 million people voted for him."

Guess what?

The loser of every election has people vote for them, too. That's why they're elections. But the continued weak kneed deflection to perpetuate that trope serves no purpose but to further enable Trump, while people use it as a shield for their inaction and political cowardice.

There's nothing magical about Trump or his voyers. Furthermore, while he may have gotten 70 million, Biden still got 80 million under some of the harshest, most adversarial voter suppression conditions ever, save the times when the nation has been involved in actual shooting war.

Therefore, anyone who defers to the weakness of invoking Trump and his voters to insulate and indemnify themselves against political repercussions, criticism, or as an excuse to perpetuate partisan paralasis, must have their careers ended.

And, those media outlets engages in those terror tactics in any way must be out out of existence. The first amendment makes no space for lies, propaganda, information warfare, or the promotion of fear and domestic terrorism.

Trump lost, he lost badly, and it's just that serious.

@Garrett_Archer Let me suggest something, in love.

Earlier, you said and I agreed with you, that the Trump side should be looking to poke holes in their case. It would only make it stronger. I wanted you to be a part of the hearings here.

Now, I think you need to do the same.

I'd like to see you approach the state's case--that there's no fraud--with the ferver of a full Tumper.

Earlier you admitted that, yes, if 35,000 votes were programmed as a baseline in Pima, it would be possible if 35,000 paper ballots were inserted there.

That wouldn't . . .

be hard to do. In fact, while I agree with you that it would be almost impossible to do it statewide, it would NOT be impossible to do it in several select locations. When a few thousand votes decide an election, this would do it.

So I challenge you to start again.

Start with the eyes of someone who sees fraud (cuz is sure as HELL looks that way). For example, pollsters are wrong. But Richard Baris is rarely wrong. When he misses, it's by a half a point.

His AZ poll was "off" by over 4. Maybe he just erred. Maybe not.

Give it a try.

Show everyone that indeed you ARE the AZ Data Guru and mount the most substantive case you can for fraud before you set to knocking it down.

I think both sides should be represented before the full AZ legislature, under oath, questioned by both sides (NOT ACCUSED but questioned)

Thread – Victims of Wokeness

1. The Cancel Culture takes scalps. We’ve seen many examples this year. It’s the real why the likes of Vaseline, the NFL, MLB, the NBA, and other large corporations/business have taken the knee to the mob.

While everybody was losing their minds that @GaSecofState was meeting minimum standards of his job, I forgot to tell y’all a wild-ass story about a *different* GA Secretary of State, fighting a contested election with a whole other pack of racist honking geese!

BEN FORTSON 🍑🧵

Ben Fortson was the longest-serving SecState in GA history. TEN governors he served with (90% of whom were total shitbirds, Jimmy Carter being the reliable exception).

I’m not trying to rehab the reputations of old-timey segregationists here, but Ben Fortson was a BAMF.

I’m going to tell you a story from the late 1940’s, but the background history you need to know is this:

Georgia did not always elect a Lt. Gov, but in 1946, the state figured there ought to be a backup.

(Of note, Gov/Lt Gov are still elected independently. Not a ticket race.)

So! 1946, Georgia elects a new Governor— Eugene Talmadge. And also elected the state’s very first Lt. Gov as well; a dude named Melvin Thompson.

Talmadge was a thoroughbred shit, and I’ll hear no arguments otherwise.

He died in December 1946, before he could take office.

The legal protocol would seem clear to us today— newly-elected Lt. Gov Melvin Thompson gets sworn in as Governor, right? Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

But this is Georgia.

So you know these chicken lip politicians are going to make it difficult difficult, lemon difficult.

The Esper firing sums up well the extremely frustrating and toxic dynamic between Trump's political maneuvers and governing strategy and his fanbase.

Step 1: There is a decisive moment, crisis, or major opportunity

Step 2: Trump talks big, takes photo-ops, and generates extreme reactions from his opponents.

Step 3: Trum fails to take action, sends mixed signals, and generally bungles the opportunity.

Step 4: Trump lashes out at the people who gave him bad advice ... and then talks big again.

Step 5: Trump's fans announce that we're about to "see the real Trump," "the gloves are off," "he'll go full bore now," etc.

Rinse, repeat.

I can think of countless examples that fit this patter: John Bolton and Iran, Esper and the BLM riots, reforming legal immigration, building The Wall, removing troops from Afghanistan, Covid stimulus checks...

Seemingly, every consequential issue fits this pattern.

So we're left w/ this situation in which Trump, at least rhetorically, still stands as the candidate of immigration restriction, nationalism, ending wars, law and order, traditional values, etc. Yet he had clear opportunities to act decisively on all of these matters and didn't.