I've been seeing a lot of discussion around the dosage gaps recommended by government for the Astra/Oxford & Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. My thoughts on the potential benefits & risks of such an approach, and the need for much greater transparency around these decisions. Thread.
What is the basis of this?
1) the first dose is likely to confer some degree of protection against disease, so better to roll this out as fast as possible, and
2) that for Oxford/Astra efficacy may be higher when the gap between doses is greater.
Vaccine efficacy among 18-55 yr olds SD/SD dosing was 59% vs LD/SD dosing at 90%.
Is this due to dosing, or differences in gaps between doses?
Differences in gaps don't appear to impact efficacy in this analysis.
It looks like the first dose prevented all severe disease (although numbers were small) in the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine group compared to vaccine control after the first 21 days of vaccination, and <14 days after the 2nd dose.
U.S. is now considering idea of a single vaccination shot, delaying shot #2 until months later. Last wk, I thought that was a bad idea \u2013 the trials that found 95% efficacy were 2 shots; why add extra complexity & a new curveball. But facts on the ground demand a rethink. (1/7)— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) December 31, 2020
1. Resources for roll-out are limited & fixed & we need to optimise how best to use them within limitations
2. There isn't significant decline in immunity after the 3 wk mark
3. Later dosing will not affect overall efficacy
A key part of the rationale appears to be a bottleneck in vaccine supply (rather than roll-out).
More from Deepti Gurdasani
Cases have been rising exponentially in England- much of the increase being attributed to the South, although declines have slowed even in the North following easing of lockdown. Much of this is anticipated, and expected, given the behaviour of the virus. 2/N
SARS-CoV-2, like any other viruses mutates as it multiplies (albeit slower than influenza). Mutations occur randomly and most are 'neutral' - i.e. have little to no effect on transmission, ability to evade the natural or vaccine-related immune response
Having said that, few mutations have been shown to be less likely to be neutralised by plasma from patients infected by the usual (wild-type) virus. Whether this translates to a lower response to vaccines or higher risk of re-infection is unclear at the moment.
Also worth noting that just because a variant becomes more frequent in a region doesn't necessarily mean it offers a fitness advantage to the virus. Many mutations rise to different frequencies in different regions due to random processes. The frequency of strains varies globally
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.
Questions have to be asked about the evidence Jenny Harries gave to the Education Committee today about the risk to teachers.— Adam Hamdy (@adamhamdy) January 19, 2021
Was she aware of this data?
If not, why wasn\u2019t she properly briefed?#COVID19 #schools https://t.co/4wa1PyAJld pic.twitter.com/eqFjaA1zYC
data shows *both* primary & secondary school teachers are at double the risk of confirmed infection relative to comparable positivity in the general population. ONS household infection data also clearly show that children are important sources of transmission.
Yet, in the parliamentary select meeting today, witnesses like Jenny Harries repeated the same claims- that have been debunked by the ONS data, and the data released by the @educationgovuk today. How many lives have been lost to these lies? How many more people have long COVID?
has repeatedly pointed out errors & gaps in the ONS reporting of evidence around risk of infection among teachers- and it's taken *months* to get clarity on this. The released data are a result of months of campaigning by her, the @NEU and others.
Rather than being transparent about the risk of transmission in school settings & mitigating this, the govt (& many of its advisors) has engaged in dismissing & denying evidence that's been clear for a while. Evidence from the govt's own surveys. And global evidence.
To recap - NHS capacity is critical in many places. Hospitals have reported oxygen shortages, and doctors are talking about having to choose who to put on ventilatory support. We have rapidly rising case numbers, >50,000 daily reported cases & 981 deaths reported yesterday.
Let's remember that the impact of socialising over christmas hasn't even begun to show in our numbers yet. And that hospitalisations are indicative of infections that happened ~2-3 wks ago (since then we have been seeing exponential rises in cases).
This means even if we act today, and bring R to below 1 right now, hospitalisations will continue to rise for another 2 wks or so - in line with exponential rises in cases over the past 2 weeks. And deaths will continue to rise for 2-4 wks after we act.
Given current doubling periods, this means very conservatively, 20-30,000 deaths over the next 4 weeks or so, which we sadly can't do anything about now, because most of those who will die during this period have already been infected.
I've heard a lot of scientists claim these three - including most recently the chief advisor to the CDC, where the claim that most transmission doesn't happen within the walls of schools. There is strong evidence to rebut this claim. Let's look at
The science shows us that most disease transmission does not happen in the walls of the school, but it comes in from the community. So, CDC is advocating to get our K-5 students back in school at least in a hybrid mode with universal mask wearing and 6 ft of distancing. https://t.co/dfvJ2nl2s4— Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) February 14, 2021
Let's look at the trends of infection in different age groups in England first- as reported by the ONS. Being a random survey of infection in the community, this doesn't suffer from the biases of symptom-based testing, particularly important in children who are often asymptomatic
A few things to note:
1. The infection rates among primary & secondary school children closely follow school openings, closures & levels of attendance. E.g. We see a dip in infections following Oct half-term, followed by a rise after school reopening.
We see steep drops in both primary & secondary school groups after end of term (18th December), but these drops plateau out in primary school children, where attendance has been >20% after re-opening in January (by contrast with 2ndary schools where this is ~5%).
More from Government
2) What we are facing has been building for a good 30 years.
3) I date it back to the GOP failure to defeat Clinton in the gubment shutdown.
4) If you went to public school, that would be the 1995 budget battle.
5) The brand new GOP Congress, with plenty of public support, failed to rein in a Clinton bloated budget.
6) It wasn't the numbers. Compared to today's deficits & debts, this was pocket change. Rather, this was the first time since the Cold War, which was a legit excuse for constant deficit spending, that Congress failed to do its MAIN constitutional duty--oversee spending.
7) No, this isn't a thread about deficits or debt. At present, I don't think those pose the biggest challenge to us, or even probably one of the top five.
8) Rather, this is about a deadly disease that hit DC & the patient refused to take any medicine for it.
9) The disease was the failure to address the major problems of the day, whether it was deficits, Islamic terrorism, the banking crisis, or trade.
10) Vote fraud & this frankenstein of an election is only the latest SYMPTOM of this much larger disease.
First, what is the UK government’s debt? I’ve immersed myself in this issue and can confidently say the Office for National Statistics’s figures are wrong, most especially because they claim that the UK government is in debt by owing money to itself. That’s not possible.
Whatever the Office for National Statistics like to claim, money you owe yourself is not debt, and so quantitative easing cancels about £800 billion of UK national debt right now. There are other mistakes in their numbers, but I’ll just stick with this one for the moment.
So, if the ONS claim the national debt is around £2.1 trillion at present, it isn’t. Allowing for the UK government owning around £800 billion of its own debt the figure reduces to maybe £1.3 trillion, give or take a bit. But that, I hasten to add, is not the end of the story.
It’s important to understand that the ONS includes some things few would think of as debt in their figures. For example, around £200 billion (£0.2 trillion) of National Savings balances are included in the national debt. Whoever knew Premium Bond holders were such a burden?
🚨ITALY ON BRINK OF DOWNFALL OVER CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE DIVIDE
@GenFlynn @GeorgePapa19 @PatrickByrne @JovanHPulitzer @SidneyPowell1 @Capezzone @Sadiso @realDonaldTrump @CarrollQuigley1 @We_Have_Risen @KanekoaTheGreat @JudgeJeanine @
The FIRST story to break out of Italy, by Cesare Sacchetti
The second story from Sacchetti is BONKERS! ⬇️
Maria Zack, founder of https://t.co/IaftMj8cs0 on January 6th broke this story which corroborates Sacchetti's claims.
Ex CIA operative, Bradley Johnson, is the third source corroborating both Zack and Sacchetti.
“Show me where it says that protests must be polite and peaceful.” — CNN's Chris Cuomo
“There needs to be unrest in the streets” — US Rep Ayanna Pressley (D)
“Protesters should not let up” — Sen. Kamala Harris (D)
“I just don't know why there aren't uprisings all over this country. Maybe there should be.” — US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D)
“You get out and you create a crowd, and you push back on them, and you tell them they're not welcome anymore, anywhere!” — US Rep Maxine Waters (D)
“I will go and take Trump out tonight.” — US Rep Maxine Waters (D)
“When they go low, we kick 'em. That’s what this new Democratic Party is about.” — USAG Eric Holder (D)
“How do you resist the temptation to run up and wring her neck?” — MSNBC's Nicole Wallace on White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders
“I'd like to punch him in the face.” — Robert De Niro on President Trump
“If we were in high school I'd take him behind the gym and beat the hell of of him.” — Democrat Candidate Joe Biden on President Trump
Guilbeault has taken this on as part of a large digital regulatory agenda that also includes things like requiring Canadian content on streaming services, and potentially forcing intermediaries to pay for news (like Australia).
We don't know what form the legislation will take, but there's cause for concern that it's partially going to look a lot like the German NetzDG law, and require hate speech and other illegal speech to be taken down quickly. It will also include a new regulator to do...something
The concern comes from the PM's mandate letter to the Minister, which asked him to "create new regulations for social media platforms, starting with a requirement that all platforms remove illegal content, including hate speech, within 24 hours or face significant penalties."
I haven't seen anything to suggest Guilbeault has moved away from this. His office was quoted recently as saying "our approach will require online platforms to monitor and eliminate illegal content that appears on their platforms."
You May Also Like
2/ Marketplace startups have done incredibly well over the first few decades of the internet, reinventing the way we shop for goods, but have been less successful services. It's bc services are complex, subjective, fragmented, and often in real life. Makes it hard
3/ There's been 4 major eras at making the service economy work online. The Listings Era, the unbundled Craiglist era, the Uber for X era, and the Managed Marketplace era
4/ Each era has added more value than the last, and utilized technology innovations, from internet to social / "read/write web" to mobile. The "Unbundling Craigslist" era was particularly epic at generating startup ideas
5/ The problem is, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked off. The techniques that got us to here won't get us to the next phase. So we have to do some pretty different things. That's why "Managed Marketplaces" have been a big deal - hire folks as W-2s, certify quality, etc.
2. Why am I compelled to speak? How am I free to speak? The answer is in the federal Values and Ethics Code of Coduct (VECC).
3. It can be career-limiting to criticize government policy when you work for government. Duty of Loyalty is very, very important. However, as VECC makes clear, it is not absolute. In fact SCoC has ruled twice in favour of citizen free speech as a higher ideal. In 1985 and 2001.
4. I am therefore perfectly comfortable showing you the scary things that are happening in the North under a warming climate. A failure to meet global GHG emissions targets is hurting Canada's forests in a way we used to think wouldn't happen for decades.
5. Warming temperatures and rising [CO2] could, in theory, help green the planet with more vigorous tree growth. But that's not what's happening. Don't believe the #greenwash. The positive effects are over and it is warm enough that we are now starting the into the negative.
The Temple is one of the 51 Shakti Peethas spread all over Indian Subcontinent and is dedicated to Goddess Surkanda.
Nestled on a Hill at an Altitude of 2700 m approx, the place offers a splendid view of the snow capped mountains, the picturesque scenic beauty that offers an experience of the lifetime.
The Temple build in the traditional Garhwal style exuberates the Architectural splendour.
The origins of the Surkanda Mata Mandir is attributed to Goddess Sati, consort of Bhagwan Shiv who in a rage immolated herself in her arrogant Father Daksha's Yajna Kund bcoz he didn't invite Bhagwan Shiv in the Yajna.
Devastated by the death of Sati Shiva wandered all over the cosmos performing Tandava-The Dance of Cosmic Destruction.Fearing the total annihilation of cosmos, Gods requested Bhagwan Vishnu to pacify Shiva.Bhagwan Vishnu then used his discuss to destroy the burning corps of Sati.
The pieces of Sati Mata's body then got scattered all over the region which were later established as Shakti Peethas by Bhagwan Shiva himself.Its believed that the head of Sati fell here and it was called Sirkhanda Mata Temple before, but with passage of time it became Surkanda.
These names are from Sri Vishnu Sahasranama!
|. "Om Vashatkaaraaya Namaha" : For Success in Business.
||. "Om Aksharaaya Namaha" : For Success in Studies.
|||. "Om Bhuthabhavanaya Namaha" : For Good Health.
|V. "Om Paramaathmane Namaha" : For Self Confidence.
Src: VAK magazine from Chilkur Balaji Temple, Hyderabad - Sri @csranga
#SanatanaDharma #SanatanaSanskriti #Sattology
One needs to chant the following slokas 28 times to get rid of certain problems in life.
Om Hrushikesaya Namah - For Overcoming Bad habits
Om Vashatkaaraya Namah - For Success in Business, Interviews, visa interviews, building relationships
Om Srimate Namah - For Handsome appearance & wealth
Om Aksharaya Namah - For Education & better financial strength
Om Paramatmane Namah - For self employed people, for promotions and success in games.
Om Putatmane Namah - To remove mental stress & for mental peace
Om Sarmane Namah - For Job Satisfaction
Om Bhutadaye Namah -To amend soured friendship or any personal relationship
Om Dhatre Namah - For issueless couple
Om vidhatre Namah - Pregnant Ladies to Chant for healthy babies.
Chant the following 108 times :
We already know that this katha was narrated by Vishnu ji to Narad Muni. So once a Brahmin named Shatanand, who lived in Kashi, went out to gather Bhiksha for his son Kaltraadi. Shatanand was an ardent devotee of Vishnu ji.
In fact he and his wife both worshipped Vishnu ji. Shatanand met an old Brahmin on the way. The old man asked him as to where was he going. Shatanand replied that he was going to collect Bhiksha for his son. So the old man replied that for a long time Shatanand's family was
in a poor condition. To get rid of this poverty, he should take refuge at the lotus feet of Kamal nayan who is Known as Bhagwan Satyanarayan.
The old Brahmin then revealed his identity. Shatanand realized that the old man was no one else, but Vishnu ji himself.
Shatanand fell on his feet and started singing his praises. He was ecstatic to listen to the voice of Parmatma and get his darshan directly. He felt he was the luckiest being living on this planet.
Vishnu ji advised him to perform Satyanarayan puja with whatever
bhiksha he would receive today. Bhagwan Narayan also told him that this puja did not require an elaborate preparation. But its benefit were manifold. We just have to gather all the materials. Just a panjiri or coarse powder of wheat mixed with sugar and milk should be