BC SOCIETY
Saved by @Alex1Powell

global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.

 above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.
clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.
this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.
this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

everyone got the same R curve

https://t.co/5iPbLaBGZd
lockdowns were a panic response.

they came LONG after disease growth curves had rolled over and had no effect overall.

it's clear when you plot google mobility data vs disease curves.

(this is from may)
r2 was ~0. this was all proven by may and strongly argued by april.

this data is literally overwhelming. there is just no evidence that lockdowns work.
spain and netherlands had radically different responses

https://t.co/drxx2RqJtA
but got R curves that were all but indistinguishable.

this issue crops up everywhere.

mitigation has zero effect.
similarly, there is no evidence that opening again had any effect either.
and this was all known. every set of longstanding pandemic guidelines contra-indicated lockdowns.

https://t.co/sFdUYqPoZy
it's 50 year old pseudoscience and the clarity with which NPI was dismissed by everyone until this year when we suddenly abandoned 100 years of science and started making stuff up and moralizing about it as though it were canon is stunning.
the same is true of masks.

just last year the WHO surveyed this and found that community masking does not work.

nothing has changed.

https://t.co/viMzUEfWTH
the "studies" trotted out this year are so awful as to beggar belief. they are either nonsensical lab bench presumption devoid of clinical or social outcome, or they are contrived cherry picks lacking controls.

the CDC used this one. it's risible.

https://t.co/IBVypITIr8
CDC and gottlieb later pushed this study which is outright fraud.

https://t.co/qY66ZavM3N
and you can see piles of data from the swiss policy research institute here:

https://t.co/Vyqmmo0wIx
there is no sound evidence that community masking has any effect. the evidence they work as "source control" is entirely speculative and made up.

the fact that they increase, not decrease post op infection in surgical theaters is pretty damning.

https://t.co/Ivb7FxPtYj
and now that it's becoming clear that asymptotic spread is vanishingly rare, we can really put the final nail in the NPI coffin.

this is the vector these interventions mean to head off.

but it was never a serious source of infection.

https://t.co/aMRCAF7g9E
the simple fact is this: nothing we have done has made any meaningful difference

covid is seasonal and regional. when your season comes, it comes

NPI is not why california and peru and eastern europe did not get hit in the spring

it was just regional

https://t.co/NZYN1v9vsa
then your season comes and everyone moves together.

we've been mistaking baby oil for suncreeen in places where it was still night time.

then, noon came and it was revealed for what it really was.

https://t.co/Aq5WEWzR5L
this means that all this moralizing about "you just want grandma to die" and the censorship of evidence counter to this "big lie" that lockdowns work has been at best a disastrous mistake and at worst, a cynical ploy to wreak havoc and cover past errors.
politicians are now doubling and trebling down on lockdowns and masks because to do otherwise is to admit that they bought us $10 trillion of sugar water as medicine and wrecked our lives and livelihoods for no sound reason.

they will never do that.
this is why they have shifted the debate to morality and censorship: to mask the fact that the science and the data calls them liars.

repeat "i'm on the side of science" enough and scare people endlessly and you can generate social belief.

but it's pure propaganda.
these mitigations do not work to stop covid or to reduce overall deaths.

this is the most expensive peace time policy debacle in human history and they all want to do it again.

say no. stand up.

this is not medicine, it's poison.

this does not save lives, it wrecks them.
it's easy to sell false hope to scared people. there are whole industries that prey on the desperation of parents with sick kids.

but sometimes, there is just not much you can do however much you want control and want to "do something".

this is one of those times.
and we need to accept that.

many times, the best way to "do something" is to do nothing.

"something" in this case has been a absolute disaster.

we panicked into unprecedented global self-harm.

it's time to stop. this is just making it worse

stay brave. stay free. stay safe.
apparently, the link i used for the asymptomatic spread study is down (crashed from so much traffic).

this is the article it cites.

https://t.co/dfPSqmTr20
also:

this is the methodology for policy stringency.

we can obviously debate weighting and values, but i checked it against the google mobility data i have used and it lined up quite well. the output looks reasonable to me.

https://t.co/OnAwKjhBVU

More from el gato malo

el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
"much of the social history of the western world over the past three decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good"

-thomas sowell

"hold my beer and watch this"

-andrew cuomo


though i suppose none of us should be surprised.

we live in a time when epidemiologists said that mass protests during a pandemic were OK so long as they were for "social justice"

massively delaying vaccine rollouts for the same reason seems like the next obvious policy.

how about this?

"anyone who needs to go protest racism, sexism, the patriarchy, or the police gets vaccine priority"

i hope i am joking.

i fear i may not be.
POLITICS
el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
the US runs its covid testing at 40Ct.

this is 1024X the amplification level of this cutoff for finding live virus that is in any way clinically relevant.

but please, tell me again how demanding more such testing is "science" and not "flooding the data w/ meaningless positives"
PCR
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el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
this simple, counter narrative fact keeps cropping up all over the world.

hospital and ICU utilization has been and remains low this year.

it's terribly curious that so few of these monitoring tools provide historical baselines.

getting them is like pulling teeth.


we might think of this as an oversight until you see stuff like this:

this woman was arrested for filming and sharing the fact that their are empty hospitals in the UK.

that's full blown soviet. what possible honest purpose does that

this is the action of a police state and a propaganda ministry, not a well intentioned government and a public heath agency.

"we cannot let people see the truth for fear they might base their actions on real facts" is not much of a mantra for just governance.


90% full ICU sounds scary until you realize that 90-100% full is normal in flu season.

staffed ICU beds are expensive to leave empty. it's like flying with 15% of the plane empty. hospitals don't do that.

and all US hospitals are mandated to be able to flex to 120% ICU.

the US is currently at historically low ICU utilization for this time of year.

61% is "you're all going to go out of business" territory as is 66% full hospital use.

can you blame them for mining CARES act money? they'll die without it.
HEALTH
el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
anyone currently shocked by the fact that the politicians in power recant and reverse the views they held when they were in opposition (and vice versa) has simply not paid any attention to history.

that's 100% to be expected.

where you stand depends up where you sit.

always.


this latest biden refusal to commit to a view on packing SCOTUS until after the election is just this same phenomenon.

if he wins, he's for packing it. if he loses, he'll be against it.

this is because almost none of these people stand on any principles.

they just seek power.


this is why it's so hard to trust any of them.

and why shouldn't they act this way?

it's what we reward. we all accept their lies even when we KNOW they are lies. we elect them anyway.

we accept that all we ever get is the lesser of evils.

will biden pay any price? nope.


it's behavioralism 101

the fault lies not w/ these narcissistic liars & sociopaths, it lies with us

we're the ones electing them & putting up with monstrous & dishonest behavior because "it's not as bad as what the other guy would do."

those are the railroad tracks to tyranny.


it demands a question:

if the outcome of an election is so impactful that it can make or ruin your life or save or lose the republic (as many claim it is) is that not proof positive that the government is FAR too powerful?

do you really want to gamble for such stakes?
POLITICS
el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
did you consider checking the facts before buying into such hysterical claims?

this is LA department of health services hospital census. it's essentially identical to the levels from last year.

the media have had a severe tendency to overstate these issues. https://t.co/ktTPIbKcdQ


as you can see, visits to emergency departments have been quite stable for 4 months.


and ICU bed availability has been flat for the whole month of december.

keep in mind that 90-100% ICU capacity is normal this time of year and that all ICU's must be able to flex to 120% (by federal law) and most can hit 150%.


and if you will not take my word for it, just ask the CEO's of the hospitals in texas everyone was so breathless about this summer.

they were not worried. and they were


hospital census in LA seems to be about 3000 patients below where it was in july.

this seems to imply a drop in staffed beds which, contrary to the narrative is not from "exhaustion" but rather from people being laid off or staying home because kids are not in school.
HEALTH

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Please share:

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#onted #onpoli #osstf

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