1/Alright, let's talk about Southeast Asia! One of the most interesting stories in the world that tons of people are

2/When most people think about economic development, they think of China. But Southeast Asia is coming up!

Already Singapore is super-rich, Malaysia is on the cusp of being a developed country, and Thailand isn't too far behind!
3/But the really encouraging sign is how nearly every poor country in the region is now growing steadily and exponentially.

The star performer, of course, is Vietnam, where incomes have almost quintupled since 1990.
4/And watch out, here come Indonesia and the Philippines!
5/And you know what? It's not technically in Southeast Asia, but it's really close, and its economic situation looks very similar, so let's include Bangladesh!
6/Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia are all growing rapidly as well.

Pretty much ALL of Southeast Asia is growing rapidly.

What's going on? What is the region getting right??
7/The simple answer is: Export-oriented manufacturing.

All of these countries have a lot of manufacturing exports, usually of labor-intensive goods like clothing. Even Indonesia, whose industrialization took a big hit after the 1997 crisis.
8/As China becomes more expensive, companies are looking for cheaper places to make things, and retailers are looking for cheaper places to buy things.

Southeast Asia (+Bangladesh) is fulfilling much of that demand.
9/But what policies did the Southeast Asian countries do in order to hop on the manufacturing export train?

They did a lot of different things...but maybe in the end the most important factor was that they were in the right place at the right time.
10/Southeast Asian countries are close to China, where the supply chains are trying to relocate out of.

They have cheap wages.

And they have huge nearby sources of investment -- Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, with whom Southeast Asian countries have close ties.
11/So what does this imply for other regions -- particularly Africa -- that need to develop and industrialize?

"Be in the right place at the right time" is pretty useless advice...
12/What Africa really needs is a "seed" of development. One or two countries that get rich before the others, like Japan and Singapore did in Asia.

Those early leaders can then be sources of inspiration, ideas, expertise, capital, and market demand for all the others.
13/Perhaps Ghana could be one seed of African development?

https://t.co/f5ydiLgpDv
14/Anyway, the amazing growth of Southeast Asia is a testament to the success of decolonization and of globalization.

It's one more big step toward making the entire human race materially comfortable and secure.

(end)

https://t.co/cqXNjLxxHJ

More from Noah Smith 🐇

When Republicans started to believe in racial bloc voting - when they stopped believing that nonwhite people could ever be persuaded to vote Republican - they started to see immigration as an invasion.

This explains why immigration is now at the center of partisan conflict.


Of course, the belief in ethnic bloc voting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

When a slight Dem tilt among Hispanics and Asians caused the GOP to turn against them, Hispanics and Asians shifted more toward the Dems. Etc. etc. A self-reinforcing cycle.

Bush's 2006 amnesty attempt, and the 2013 intra-GOP fight over immigration reform, were two moments when the GOP could have turned back to the approach of Reagan, and courted Hispanics and Asians.

But they decided against this, and...here we are.

What will disrupt this bad equilibrium, and save American politics from being an eternal race war?

Either:
A) More white voters will grow disgusted with the GOP approach and defect, or
B) The GOP will find some non-immigration-related issues to attract more Hispanics and Asians.

As long as both parties see elections in terms of racial bloc voting - where the only way to win is to increase turnout among your own racial blocs or suppress turnout by the other party's racial blocs - American politics will not improve, and the country will decline.

(end)
This thread demonstrates that a lot of academic writing that *looks* like utter nonsense is merely scholars dressing up a useful but mundane point with a ton of unnecessary jargon.


My theory is that the jargon creates an artificial barrier to entry. https://t.co/MqLyyppdHl

If one must spend years marinating one's brain in jargon to be perceived as an expert on a topic, it protects the status and earning power of people who study relatively easy topics.

In econ, a similar thing is accomplished by what recent Nobel prize winner Paul Romer calls "mathiness": https://t.co/DBCRRc8Mir

But mathiness and jargon are not quite the same...

Jargon usually doesn't force you to change the substance of your central point.

Mathiness often does. By forcing you to write your model in a way that's mathematically tractable (easy to work with), mathiness often impoverishes your understanding of how the world really works.

has written about this problem:
1/I'm thinking about the end of Apu in the context of the national debates on immigration and diversity.


2/Apu's presence in Springfield represented a basic reality of America in the late 20th and early 21st century: the presence of nonwhite immigrants.

3/As Tomas Jimenez writes in "The Other Side of Assimilation", for my generation, immigrants from India, China, Mexico, and many other countries aren't strange or foreign. On the contrary, they're a

4/But that America I grew up with is fundamentally ephemeral. The kids of immigrants don't retain their parents' culture. They merge into the local culture (and, as Jimenez documents, the local culture changes to reflect their influence).

5/Simpsons character don't change. But real people, and real communities, do. So a character who once represented the diversity that immigrants brought to American towns now represents a stereotype of Indian-Americans as "permanent foreigners".

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